The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been fantastic recently, scoring at least 66.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. His salary has also decreased by -$500 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $10,800 price tag is very reasonable. It results in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and Westbrook has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.06 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool). He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends and provides one of the safest floors in fantasy.
Value
The Grizzlies have nothing to play for at this point in the season, so it’s not surprising that their injury report has become bloated recently. Mike Conley is the latest addition — he’s doubtful for tonight’s contest vs. the Magic — and likely join Avery Bradley, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, C.J. Miles, and Jaren Jackson Jr. on the sidelines.
That opens up a ton of value with the rest of the roster. Jevon Carter and Tyler Dorsey are both priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings and should see a healthy amount of playing time. Both players are projected for right around 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and minimum priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.59 with a comparable playing time projection.
Fast Break
Emmanuel Mudiay should continue to handle the majority of the point guard minutes for the Knicks with Dennis Smith Jr. sidelined. He’s played at least 32.8 minutes in four of his past five games and has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute this season, which makes him an appealing option at just $5,200.
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet (23), Milwaukee Bucks guard George Hill (3).
Kyle Lowry remains out for the Toronto Raptors, which makes Fred VanVleet a viable option at the point guard position. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute since returning to the rotation three games ago and has scored at least 35.0 FanDuel points in each of his past two. He’s dominated with Lowry out of the lineup for most of the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.6 in 13 games without the Raptors’ star point guard.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden continues to post eye-popping stat lines on a regular basis. He racked up 57 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists in his last contest, despite the fact that he had a brutal matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. His average usage rate of 40.4% is also the top mark in the league by a comical margin: Joel Embiid ranks second at just 33.2%.
That said, if Harden has a DFS kryptonite, it’s the San Antonio Spurs. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -5.53 over his past 25 matchups vs. the Spurs and has posted a Consistency Rating of just 32.0%. He still deserves some tournament consideration on DraftKings, where his $11,00 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%, but there are better options for cash games.
Value
The Grizzlies also have two viable value options at the shooting guard position in Delon Wright and Justin Holiday. Of the two, Wright possesses the higher upside on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is coming off 41.6 minutes in his last game. That game did go to overtime, but he should still see a huge workload vs. the Magic.
Holiday hasn’t been nearly as effective on a per-minute basis, but he’s arguably the better value of the two on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and should see a similar workload on today’s slate.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell is facing his former team tonight and has a chance to officially knock them out of the playoff race. If that doesn’t qualify as a #RevengeGame, I don’t know what does. Russell has also been flames recently, scoring at least 58.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games while averaging 1.43 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Lou Williams is a boom-or-bust option, which makes him an ideal target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s in an elite matchup today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and the Clippers’ implied team total of 116.75 is the top mark on the slate.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard stands out at the small forward position today given the injury to Lowry. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games and has a strong matchup vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder. They’ve played at the third fastest pace this season, giving Leonard an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.53 on DraftKings.
He scored 48.5 DraftKings points when these two teams met on Wednesday and has averaged 45.3 DraftKings points per game with Lowry out of the lineup this season. He’s underpriced at $8,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Mario Hezonja has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games and should continue to see a solid role for the shorthanded Knicks. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season and has produced when given an opportunity this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.58 when projected for at least 24 minutes. He’s a nice option at $3,900 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Bruno Caboclo is a strong value target on FanDuel at just $4,000. He’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models and will likely start at the power forward position vs. the Magic. Joakim Noah is questionable in addition to all their other injuries, and his absence would leave the Grizzlies pretty thin in the frontcourt.
If you like targeting stud players at reduced ownership, Giannis Antetokounmpo is your guy on today’s slate. He’s currently probable for today’s matchup vs. the Heat but has averaged an elite 1.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at just $11,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Power Forward
Stud
Pascal Siakam continues to provide consistent production at the power forward position. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games, and he dropped 63.75 DraftKings points on the Thunder in their last game. He’s seen the largest usage bump on the team with Lowry out of the lineup this season, and his $7,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Value
James Johnson has rejoined the Heat’s rotation recently given all their injuries, and he’s scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month so he doesn’t need to play much to pay off his $3,600 salary.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap has been a reliable option recently, scoring at least 31.7 FanDuel points in five straight games, and he’s in an elite spot today vs. the Knicks. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season, giving Millsap an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.02 on FanDuel. He’s a nice option at $7,200.
Kyle Kuzma is another player who seems underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s seen a decrease in fantasy production over the past month but is still averaging 0.84 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s in a plus matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has been dreadful from a fantasy perspective recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.57. That said, he has seen a price decrease of -$400 over the past month, and he’s in a potential smash spot tonight vs. the Knicks. He dropped 69.5 DraftKings points on the Knicks in their first meeting this season, recording a triple double with 19 points, 14 rebounds, and 15 assists. His 12 Pro trends are also tied for the most at the position.
Value
Jarrett Allen doesn’t play the most consistent minutes, but he has been a solid option when given the opportunity this season. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him an interesting option vs. the Lakers. The Lakers have been crushed by opposing centers this season, giving Allen an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.62 on DraftKings. He’s fairly priced across the industry but is particularly appealing at just $5,500 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas is an absolutely elite producer at his salary, averaging 1.35 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he has the chance to see a larger workload than usual on today’s slate if Noah is ultimately ruled out.
Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Memphis Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas (17), Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (3) and forward Bobby Portis (5).
He’s coming off 36.5 minutes in his last game, and he responded with 52.25 DraftKings points. He’s one of the best values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
There isn’t a ton of “value” at the center position on FanDuel, but Ivica Zubac is one exception. He owns a Bargain Rating of 85% for today’s matchup vs. the Cavaliers, and he’s averaged 1.19 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He should only see around 20 minutes in this contest, but that should still give him a chance to return value.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Grizzlies C Jonas Valanciunas (17)
Photo Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
