The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
John Wall has returned to the team after missing their previous game for personal reasons, but he’s currently listed as questionable with an illness. If he can suit up, he has a nice matchup vs. the Cavaliers. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 112.0 points ranks fourth on the slate. Wall has slightly better value on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 60%.
Jamal Murray has been playing well for the Nuggets recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on FanDuel. He’s benefited from a shorthanded roster, playing at least 36.5 minutes in each of those games, and the Nuggets will be even more shorthanded today after losing Paul Millsap to a toe injury yesterday.
David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jamal Murray (27).
Murray is in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Hawks, who lead the league in pace this season. The Nuggets’ resulting implied team total of 115.0 points is the top mark on the slate. He also has an elite individual matchup vs. Trae Young, who ranks dead last at the point guard position in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). Murray is one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
The Cavs have the potential to be a nice source of value today. They were already shorthanded in yesterday’s matchup with the Kings after trading away George Hill, and then Rodney Hood left the game with a foot injury. If newly acquired Matthew Dellavedova is not available to make his debut, they could be really thin on today’s slate.
Collin Sexton should be one of the primary beneficiaries. He played 34.5 minutes yesterday and finished second on the team with a usage rate of 31.1%. He’s also in an excellent spot today vs. the Wizards, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.28 on DraftKings. He’s a nice value across the industry.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard is an interesting option today on DraftKings. On one hand, he leads all point guards with 12 Pro Trends, and his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. On the other hand, he has a brutal matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have been the best defensive team in the league since acquiring Robert Covington. He still has upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but he’s too risky for cash games.
Spencer Dinwiddie is reasonably priced at just $6,100 for today’s contest vs. the New York Knicks. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has played at least 29.5 minutes in four of his past five games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal dominated in his first game without Wall this season, posting 56.7 FanDuel points in greater than 41.5 minutes. He increased his usage rate by +2.6% and his assist rate by +9.2% in that contest, which would give him plenty of upside if Wall were to be ruled out again. He has a solid individual matchup vs. the Cavs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.10 on DraftKings.
Value
The Cavs have two shooting guard options with appeal on today’s slate: Jordan Clarkson and Alec Burks. Clarkson led the team in usage yesterday, resulting in 35.5 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and could see over 30 minutes today if Hood is unable to suit up.
Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Cavaliers guard Jordan Clarkson (8).
Burks led the team in minutes yesterday despite coming off the bench and finished with a dominant 46.75 DraftKings points. He’s the most likely candidate to replace Hood in the starting lineup but should have a solid role regardless of his status. He remains priced at a discount at just $3,900 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel, which makes him one of the easiest plays of the day.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell has increased his fantasy production to 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has played at least 31.5 minutes in five of his past seven contests. He’s priced at just $7,500 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Kent Bazemore is an interesting option on DraftKings, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is coming off a season-high 35 minutes of playing time in his most recent contest. If he’s going to play that much – he’s currently projected for 29.8 minutes in our NBA Models – he has the potential to be one of the best values of the day.
Small Forward
Stud
There is a ton of value on today’s slate, which makes it tempting to pay up for LeBron James at SF. He’s coming of 68.0 DraftKings points vs. the Spurs last night and should continue to benefit from the absence of Brandon Ingram. LeBron has increased his usage rate by a team-high +2.6% with Ingram off the court this season and has averaged 58.05 DraftKings points per game in five games with Ingram out of the lineup. With that in mind, he seems like a nice value at just $10,600 on DraftKings.
Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. They’re currently playing at the slowest pace in the league and rank fourth in defensive efficiency, which is an awful combination for fantasy purposes. The Lakers’ resulting implied team total of 103.5 is the lowest mark on today’s slate and represents a decrease of roughly 10 points when compared to their season average (113.4). LeBron still has one of the highest ceilings on the slate, but he has more downside than usual as well.
Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat forward Justise Winslow (20) guards Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23).
Value
The Heat will be without Wayne Ellington for the second straight game, which should give Justise Winslow a nice bump in playing time. He took full advantage of his 31.5 minutes yesterday, scoring 43.0 DraftKings points vs. the Phoenix Suns. He has a tougher matchup today vs. the Clippers but seems underpriced at $4,300 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Juan Hernangomez has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.87 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s played 36.5 minutes in each of his past two games and should see a similar workload today given the injury to Millsap. He’s a strong value on DraftKings at $4,300.
Josh Richardson could be an interesting buy-low option for the Heat. He’s struggled recently but is still playing huge minutes: He’s seen at least 38.5 minutes in two of his past three games. His salary has decreased by $700 on both DraftKings and FanDuel over the past month, and his 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel is tied with LeBron for most at the position.
Power Forward
Studs
Domantas Sabonis missed the Pacers’ last game and is currently questionable for tonight’s contest with an illness. If he is able to suit up, he’ll be in a great spot vs. the Sacramento Kings. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, giving Sabonis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.43 on FanDuel. He’s also seen a usage bump of +1.9% with Victor Oladipo off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.39 FanDuel points per minute. He’s a strong value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%.
Bam Adebayo is not exactly priced like a stud but should be treated like one on today’s slate. Hassan Whiteside remains out for today’s slate, which means that Adebayo should continue to start and play big minutes. He’s averaged an elite 1.22 FanDuel points per minute and is currently projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He scored 43.0 FanDuel points in a similar spot yesterday, which makes him close to a must play at $5,500. Plus, there’s a good chance he does something like this again:
BAM flies in for the BIG TIME oop! #HEATCulture
WATCH on #NBA League Pass: https://t.co/L3VurkatG8 pic.twitter.com/Dzjj60nvE0
— NBA (@NBA) December 8, 2018
Value
Trey Lyles is in an excellent spot vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who have the third worst rebound rate in the league. He should see some additional minutes with Millsap out of the lineup and has averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Larry Nance Jr. should be another beneficiary of the shorthanded Cavs rotation on today’s slate. He’s coming off greater than 31 minutes in their last contest and has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at just $4,600 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Center
Studs
Paying up for at least one center option on DraftKings seems like the way to go on today’s slate.
Nikola Jokic leads the position with 13 Pro Trends and is in a wonderful spot vs. the Hawks. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.91, and Jokic has averaged a position high 1.48 DraftKings points per minute this season.
He also has a chance to carry a larger offensive workload with Millsap sidelined. He’s only played 57 total minutes with Gary Harris, Will Barton, and Millsap off the floor, but Jokic has posted a usage rate of 35.4% in those minutes. That represents an increase of +10.4% and results in an average of 1.67 DraftKings points per minute. He looks like the top stud on today’s slate.
Karl-Anthony Towns could also be worth some consideration on DraftKings, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s coming off 73.0 DraftKings points in his most recent game and has increased his fantasy production to 1.45 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
Value
Mason Plumlee is yet another value option for the Nuggets today. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past 10 games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +10.54 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $4,100 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Myles Turner was a bit of a disappointment yesterday, which could make him underowned on today’s slate. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and should see a bump in playing time if Sabonis is ruled out. He also has a nice matchup vs. the Kings, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.97.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Bam Adebayo
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
