The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook may not be the unquestioned best player in fantasy basketball anymore, but he’s still capable of producing some of the most eye-popping stat lines in the league. He went for 21 points, 15 rebounds and 17 assists in his most recent game, marking the second time in four games that he’s gone for at least 20-15-15.
To put that in perspective, Magic Johnson – one of the best passing and rebounding PGs of all time – did that just three times in his entire career. The only players with more 20-15-15 games in the history of basketball are Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson, who are both considered among the greatest players of all time. It’s become fashionable to rip Westbrook for his style of play these days, but what he can do on a basketball court is truly special.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Chicago Bulls, who rank just 21st in defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder’s resulting implied team total of 113.5 ranks fourth on the slate. Westbrook also leads all PGs with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his current $11,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Stephen Curry has shown no ill effects from the groin injury that caused him to miss an extended period of time, and he’s coming off a 64.3-point FanDuel performance in his last contest. Tonight’s game between the Warriors and Bucks is expected to be a high-scoring affair: The current total of 240 points is at least 15 points greater than every other game on the slate. The Warriors could also be looking for some vengeance after getting blown out by Milwaukee in Oakland earlier this season. Like Westbrook, Curry seems underpriced on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%.
Value
It’s impossible to trust the Suns anymore with Devin Booker and T.J. Warren out of the lineup. They’ve been blown out in all three games without their two best offensive players and have struggled to score points in all three contests.
That said, Elie Okobo remains dirt cheap at $3,900 on DraftKings and does have an excellent individual matchup vs. the Miami Heat. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.23, and Okobo did manage to post a positive Plus/Minus in yesterday’s game vs. the Portland Trail Blazers before fouling out. He could be worth some consideration as a punt play.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray looks like one of the safest options of the day given the injury to Gary Harris. He’s logged at least 40.5 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with Harris and Will Barton off the floor this season. He’s also in a decent pace-up spot vs. the Hornets, who have played at the 12th-fastest pace this season.
Reggie Jackson could be an interesting target today vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has the potential to see more minutes than usual with Ish Smith out of the lineup. The opposing 76ers have also played at the eighth-fastest pace this season, and they’ve played even faster with Joel Embiid out of the lineup.
Shooting Guard
Studs
DeMar DeRozan would be the best player in fantasy if he got to face the Lakers every game. He’s dominated them in each of their first three meetings, averaging 57.97 FanDuel points per game and posting a Consistency Rating of 100%. He’ll face them again on today’s slate, which makes him an excellent target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%.
Jimmy Butler has huge upside today vs. the Pistons with Embiid out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +9.3% with Embiid off the court since joining the 76ers, resulting in an average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute. He’s priced at just $7,400 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Brandon Ingram is set to miss at least the next two games with an ankle injury, which opens up a pretty big hole in the Lakers’ rotation. Josh Hart is one of the most likely candidates to benefit from his absence: He’s seen a usage bump of +1.4% and averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute with Ingram off the floor this season. He’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him one of the better values of the day at just $3,600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Cavs feature a pair of intriguing shooting guards in Jordan Clarkson and Alec Burks. They’re in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Sacramento Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season. Of the two, Clarkson has averaged more fantasy points per minute and is currently projected for more minutes on today’s slate, but Burks is cheaper across the industry.
Will Jrue Holiday ever bust? He’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating on DraftKings this season, and his current $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He has a brutal matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, but Holiday has given us no reason to doubt him lately.
Small Forward
Studs
As usual, the small forward position on today’s slate is absolutely loaded. The decision at the top is particularly difficult on DraftKings, where guys like DeRozan, Butler and Ben Simmons have SF eligibility in addition to eligibility at their primary positions.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off one of his worst games of the season in his last outing, but he was limited to just 26 minutes due to a combination of foul trouble and a blowout. He remains the most productive player in fantasy on a per-minute basis given his average of 1.66 DraftKings points per minute on the season. He will likely be one of the highest-owned studs on the slate given the Bucks’ implied team total vs. the Warriors, and that seems warranted on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
LeBron James will likely be overlooked on this slate, especially considering his average Plus/Minus of -4.01 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,400 over that time frame, and he’s in an elite spot vs. the Spurs. They’ve been awful defensively this season, allowing the second-most points per 100 possessions, and James has seen a team-high usage bump of +2.6% with Ingram off the floor this season. The result is an average of 1.50 FanDuel points per minute.
Value
The Heat are nearing a return to full strength, with Goran Dragic currently listed as probable for today’s game vs. the Suns after missing eight straight games with a knee injury. That said, Wayne Ellington will miss the game to attend the birth of his child, which does open up some minutes on the wing.
Justise Winslow seems like the most likely candidate to fill that void, and he’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay went off in his last matchup, scoring 45.4 FanDuel points vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. He’ll face the same team today and has averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a nice value at $5,800.
Stanley Johnson could be an interesting value play for the shorthanded Pistons. They’ll likely be without Reggie Bullock in addition to Smith, which should result in a few additional minutes for Johnson. He’s been awesome when on the court recently, averaging 1.07 FanDuel points per minute, and is priced at just $4,100 on FanDuel. He has big upside in a pace-up spot vs. the 76ers.
Power Forward
Stud
Very rarely do you get the opportunity to buy low on Anthony Davis, but that seems like the case on today’s slate. He continues to crush, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.45 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month.
His salary has decreased by a tremendous amount on DraftKings in anticipation of today’s difficult matchup vs. the Grizzlies. They’re currently playing at the slowest pace in the league and rank fourth in defensive efficiency, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 111.5 represents a decrease of greater than seven points compared to their season average (118.7). Still, it’s hard not to like Davis at just $11,000 on DraftKings. His reduced salary results in a Bargain Rating of 100%, and he owns the highest floor and ceiling projections in our NBA Models.
Value
Bam Adebayo typically has a large range of outcomes in terms of his minutes, but his playing time should be solidified for today’s matchup with Hassan Whiteside currently away from the team. He’s still managed to return value in nine of his past 10 contests despite an inconsistent role, and he’s averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s in an excellent spot vs. the Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.49 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis is currently questionable for today’s contest with an illness, and his absence would leave the Pacers without two of their highest usage players (Victor Oladipo remains out with a knee injury). Thaddeus Young could see a few additional minutes if Sabonis is ruled out and has seen a usage bump of +3.6% with both players off the court this season.
This could be a nice opportunity to buy low on Blake Griffin. He’s seen a price decrease of $800 over the past month on FanDuel, and his current $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s in a nice spot vs. the 76ers; he crushed them for an average of 69.7 FanDuel points in his first meetings with them this season (per the Trends tool).
Center
Stud
Tristan Thompson has been priced up aggressively over the past month but still appears to be a nice value across the industry. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.87 over the past 10 games on DraftKings and has scored at least 37.0 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Sacramento Kings, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.88 on DraftKings.
Value
Kevon Looney could be a nice value for the Warriors, who are going to be without Damian Jones and Draymond Green on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is priced at just $4,500. He’s a cheap way to get exposure to the best game on today’s slate.
Fast Break
DeAndre Ayton came off the bench in his last game due to a stomach illness but should be back in the starting lineup tonight. He’s disappointed in each of his past two games but still offers big upside with Booker and Warren out of the lineup. The biggest question is if the Suns can actually keep this game competitive, but they’re only 7.5-point underdogs vs. the Heat.
The Grizzlies are in a massive pace-up spot vs. the Pelicans, which could make Marc Gasol an interesting target. He’s priced at just $8,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Anthony Davis
Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
