The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook was one rebound and one assist shy of a triple-double on Christmas, but his overall offensive output remains down. His current usage rate of 30.3% still ranks 12th in the league, but it would be his lowest mark since his second season in the league. It’s also been trending down over the past month: He’s posted an average usage rate of just 28.6% since returning from an injury on November 11.
That said, his salary has decreased by $600 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $10,900 price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 90%. He also has one of the best possible matchups vs. the Phoenix Suns, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder’s resulting implied team total of 114.5 points ranks fourth on the slate, and Westbrook’s 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the PG position on DraftKings.
He would also get a massive boost in value if Paul George is ultimately ruled out for today’s contest. George is currently listed as questionable with a quad injury, and it would not be surprising if the Thunder decided to rest him given the matchup. Westbrook has seen a usage bump of +2.7% with George off the court this season, resulting in an average of 55.3 DraftKings points per 36 minutes.
Value
Lonzo Ball put his skillset on display in his first game without LeBron James, scoring 57.75 DraftKings points in just under 37 minutes. He has a tougher matchup today vs. the Los Angeles Clippers, but he still feels massively underpriced on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He’ll likely be one of the highest-owned players of the day.
Fast Break
Jeff Teague remains out for the Minnesota Timberwolves, so Derrick Rose should continue to handle the majority of the minutes at PG. He’s seen a usage bump of +3.7% in games without Teague this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +5.8 on DraftKings. He has been priced up by $1,200 over the past month but has an elite matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 119.25 is the top mark on the slate.
J.J. Barea is projected for only 24 minutes in our NBA Models, but that should be more than enough time for him to potentially pay off his $5,100 salary on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.73 ranks second at the position.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Devin Booker has been doing work since returning from injury, averaging 52.42 DraftKings points and a +10.75 Plus/Minus over six games. The only game he failed to post a positive Plus/Minus was on the second leg of a back-to-back after playing 54.5 minutes in a triple-overtime game the night before. I think that’s pretty excusable.
He remains fairly priced at $8,500 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. That said, it’s a really difficult matchup: The Thunder currently rank first in the league in defensive efficiency. Booker will also likely draw the individual defense of Paul George, who has been the second-best perimeter defender in the league, per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). Booker has averaged just 36.75 DraftKings points in his first two meetings with the Thunder this season, so he could be worth some fade consideration despite the appealing price tag.
Bradley Beal seems like a safer option for those paying up at the position. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s logged at least 38 minutes in eight of his past nine games. He’s been a strong value over the past month, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.22, yet his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that time frame. Beal sits at just $7,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
He gets the added benefit of playing without John Wall vs. the Chicago Bulls. He’s dominated in three games without Wall this season, averaging 58.08 DraftKings points per game. That number is inflated by a triple-overtime game vs. the Suns, but he has scored at least 46.25 DraftKings points in all three contests.
Value
Josh Hart is priced at just $3,900 on FanDuel, which makes him an easy choice for those paying down at SG. He logged 32 minutes with LeBron and Rajon Rondo out of the lineup yesterday, resulting in 29.8 FanDuel points. He’s currently projected for 32.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.50 and a Consistency Rating of 60.7% (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Zach LaVine returned from injury in the Bulls’ last game and ultimately scored 33.75 DraftKings points in 26.5 minutes. He’s been priced down to just $6,500 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Wizards, which gives him huge upside if he returns to the starting lineup. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Dennis Schroder has been hit-or-miss as a member of the Thunder but is coming off an excellent game vs. the Rockets on Christmas Day. He would become extremely appealing if George is ultimately ruled out: He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +9.0% with George off the floor this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Kyle Lowry remains out for the Toronto Raptors, which means we can continue to target Kawhi Leonard with confidence. Leonard has averaged 49.58 DraftKings points per game in six games without Lowry this season, which would be more than enough for him to return value at $9,200 on DraftKings. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, and his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Trevor Ariza continues to log massive minutes for the shorthanded Wizards. He’s played at least 36 in four of his past five games and has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has a pretty safe floor for cash games and a decent ceiling for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram has SF eligibility on FanDuel, which makes him one of the most appealing plays at a relatively weak position. He’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute and seen a usage bump of +5.5% with both LeBron and Rondo off the court this season, and he tallied 32.6 FanDuel points with both players out of the lineup yesterday.
The Lakers have played at a faster pace and allowed four additional points per 100 possessions with LeBron off the court this season, which makes the Clippers an appealing target on today’s slate. That includes Danilo Gallinari, who has averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He played just 23 minutes in a blowout in their most recent game but had posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his five prior contests.
Power Forward
Stud
What else can be said about Anthony Davis at this point? He’s basically the top option every single time he takes the floor, and not even frequent trips to the locker room have been able to stop him this season.
He has a nice matchup today vs. the Dallas Mavericks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.61 on DraftKings, and Davis recorded 32 points and 18 rebounds vs. this same team on Wednesday. He leads all PFs with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
PF is a tough position to pay down at today, but one option who deserves some consideration is Maxi Kleber. He entered the starting lineup in the Mavericks’ most recent contest and ultimately recorded 30.6 FanDuel points in 24 minutes. He could very well remain in the starting lineup for today’s contest – especially if Dennis Smith Jr. is unable to suit up – and he’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma isn’t exactly priced like a stud at $7,200 but could offer stud-like production with James and Rondo out of the lineup. He’s seen a massive +9.0% usage bump with both players off the floor this season and led the team with a usage rate of 35.4% yesterday vs. the Kings. He provided 43.8 FanDuel points and played 40 minutes, and his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Lauri Markkanen has one of the best individual matchups of the day, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.01 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute and is currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him a nice value at $7,200.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off a 20-point, 20-rebound game vs. the Bulls on Wednesday and has an elite matchup today vs. the Atlanta Hawks. In addition to ranking first in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, they also rank just 25th in team rebound rate. That combination is extremely appealing and gives Towns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.35 on FanDuel. His 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel are tied for the most at the position, while his Bargain Rating of 75% is the top mark among the high-priced options.
Value
Boban Marjanovic is priced at just $3,600 on FanDuel, which makes him an appealing punt play. He’s averaged 1.40 FanDuel points per minute this season and has a strong matchup vs. the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.83.
Fast Break
There are a host of high-priced centers who look like excellent values on DraftKings:
- Nikola Jokic — $8,800 (98% Bargain Rating)
- Andre Drummond — $8,600 (98% Bargain Rating)
- Nikola Vucevic — $8,200 (97% Bargain Rating)
Jokic leads all centers with 14 Pro Trends, while Drummond owns the best Opponent Plus/Minus at +1.58. That said, Vucevic might be the most appealing option. He’s the cheapest of the bunch and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.42 with a comparable salary this season.
Dewayne Dedmon should continue to see a boost in playing time with Alex Len sidelined. He played 37 minutes in their most recent contest and has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him an excellent value at $5,500.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Pelicans PF Anthony Davis
Photo Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
