The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
No one at the PG position has been better than Kyrie Irving on a per-minute basis over the past month. He’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +5.32 on DraftKings. His salary has risen by a significant amount over that time frame, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. On one hand, the Bucks have been one of the better defensive teams in the league, allowing the fourth-fewest points per 100 possessions. On the other hand, they’ve also played at one of the fastest paces in the league, which does make this a solid pace-up spot for the Celtics. Kyrie should also benefit from the team being shorthanded. The Celtics will be without both Al Horford and Marcus Morris for today’s matchup, and Irving has seen a massive +8.8% bump to his assist rate with both players off the court this season.
Value
Emmanuel Mudiay has grabbed the reins at the PG position for the Knicks, logging at least 30 minutes in each of his past five games. He’s averaged 38.55 DraftKings points per game over that time frame, which makes him an appealing option at just $6,100 vs. the Atlanta Hawks. It’s an elite matchup for PGs: The Hawks rank first in the league in pace, while Trae Young ranks dead last at the position in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM).
Fast Break
Kyle Lowry is expected to miss tonight’s contest vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, which means Fred VanVleet will likely draw another start. He racked up 26.9 FanDuel points with Lowry out of the lineup on Wednesday and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.2 in three games without Lowry this season. He’s priced at just $5,300 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Memphis is in one of the biggest pace-up spots we’ve seen all season vs. the Sacramento Kings, which could make Mike Conley an interesting option. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.05 in games with a pace differential (paceD) of at least +5.0 (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jrue Holiday exploded for 59.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, which makes sense given the Pelicans’ current injury situation. Julius Randle is expected to return to the lineup tonight, but Anthony Davis is currently listed as questionable and Nikola Mirotic is doubtful. Holiday has seen bumps to both his usage and assist rates with Davis and Mirotic off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for a slate-high 39 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him an appealing target if the Pelicans are shorthanded.
Value
Jeff Teague is expected to miss at least the next week with an ankle injury, and Josh Okogie has been one of the primary beneficiaries of his absence. He’s logged at least 27.5 minutes in each of the past two games and has averaged a respectable 0.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at just $3,300 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel, making him one of the strongest values of the day.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum has been hit-or-miss this season from a fantasy perspective but could be an interesting option at just $6,300 on FanDuel. He has a mediocre matchup vs. the Jazz, but McCollum has historically posted a Plus/Minus of +4.31 with a comparable salary.
Kent Bazemore continues to see an increased role with Taurean Prince out of the lineup. He’s played at least 29 minutes in each of his past six games and has posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in five of them. He’s averaged a stout 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the New York Knicks.
Small Forward
Studs
As usual, the SF position is loaded on today’s slate.
It starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute this season. He isn’t playing nearly as many minutes as he did last season – which is why he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.36 through his first 28 games – but his ceiling is as high as any player in fantasy on a night-to-night basis.
He does have a tough matchup today vs. the Boston Celtics; they currently rank third in the league in defensive efficiency. The Bucks’ implied team total of 111.5 represents a decrease of greater than six points compared to their regular season average (117.6), but Giannis did manage 55.0 DraftKings points in his first meeting against the Celtics this season. This could be an opportunity to buy Giannis at reduced ownership.
As good as Giannis is, Kawhi Leonard might represent the better value on today’s slate. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings and has posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over his past 12 games. He’s also dominated with Lowry out of the lineup this season, averaging 48.95 DraftKings points per game.
He has an excellent matchup today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season. He also seems underpriced on DraftKings at just $9,500 given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Rodney Hood has logged at least 35 minutes in each of his past two games, which could make him an interesting option at $4,100 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Hood has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.55 with a comparable salary this season.
Fast Break
Buddy Hield has SF eligibility on DraftKings and could be worthy of consideration despite a difficult matchup vs. the Grizzlies. Both Iman Shumpert and Bogdan Bogdanovic are expected to be game-time decisions, and Hield exploded for 56.5 DraftKings points with both players out of the lineup on Wednesday.
The Celtics are thin in the frontcourt right now, with Horford, Morris and Aron Baynes all ruled out for tonight’s contest. That could result in a few extra minutes for Gordon Hayward, who has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at just $5,800 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis had a vintage game on Wednesday, tallying 27 points, 11 rebounds and one trip to the locker room. He’s the most-expensive player on today’s slate by a sizable margin, but he’s in a dream spot if he’s able to suit up vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. They’ve struggled with opposing big men all season, giving Davis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.65 on DraftKings, and they’ve played at the third-fastest pace as well. They could be without JaVale McGee (already out) and Tyson Chandler (questionable), which would leave them with no real option to combat Davis. He leads all players with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $11,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Kevin Knox has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.64 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and looks like a strong option vs. the Hawks. He’s played at least 35 minutes in five of his past six games and has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum is another member of the Celtics frontcourt who could see an increased role given their current injury situation. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
John Collins has been a double-double machine recently, recording at least 10 points and 10 boards in seven of his past eight games. His salary has risen by a considerable margin over that time frame, but he still managed a positive Plus/Minus in just 25 minutes in his last contest. He should return to his usual workload if today’s game vs. the Knicks stays competitive, which gives him big upside.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic is in a potential smash spot today vs. the Chicago Bulls. They’ve been one of the worst teams against opposing centers this season, giving Vucevic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.92 on DraftKings. Vucevic crushed the Bulls for 48.0 DraftKings points in Mexico City last Thursday, and his $9,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
It looks like a tough day to pay down too far at center, but Willie Cauley-Stein has some appeal at just $5,700 on DraftKings. He’s in a tough spot vs. the Grizzlies, but his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s been an awesome value with a comparable salary this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.69 and a Consistency Rating of 76.5% over 17 contests.
Fast Break
If Davis is unable to suit up for the Pelicans, Julius Randle would be tough to avoid at just $7,500 on DraftKings. Randle has dominated with both Davis and Mirotic off the court this season, averaging 1.52 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also averaged 40.0 DraftKings points in four games without Davis despite playing just 27.4 minutes per game. He’s currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models and can do a lot of damage when the offense is running primarily through him.
Enes Kanter looks like an awesome tournament option on FanDuel, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s played at least 28 minutes in four of his past five games and has averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute this season. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Hawks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Raptors F Kawhi Leonard
Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
