NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Fri. 12/14): Target the Underpriced Nuggets for Value

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Friday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Studs

Russell Westbrook is in fantasy consideration every time he takes the court, but he’s in a brutal spot today vs. the Denver Nuggets. They currently rank seventh in defensive efficiency and are playing at the fourth-slowest pace, which is an awful combination for fantasy purposes.

The Thunder are implied for just 109.75 points as a result, and Westbrook owns an individual Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.19 on FanDuel. He could still be worth some consideration for guaranteed prize pools on FanDuel — he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends and has seen a price decrease of -$600 over the past month — but his floor is lower than usual.

This could be a good time to buy low on Damian Lillard. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -0.11 over his past 10 games but has seen a price decrease of -$1,600 over his past four games. He’s priced at just $8,500 for today’s matchup vs. the Toronto Raptors, and Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.77 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).

Value

Monte Morris has become an important part of the Nuggets rotation. The Nuggets are dealing with a bunch of injuries at the moment, and Morris has scored at least 32.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.31 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$700 over that time frame. His current $4,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s in a nice pace-up spot vs. the Thunder.

Fast Break

FanDuel features a trio of high-end point guards who look like nice values: Steph Curry (98% Bargain Rating), Kyrie Irving (90% Bargain Rating), and John Wall (81% Bargain Rating). Of the group, Irving has averaged the most fantasy points per minute over the past month and has the best matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks. Curry also has a strong matchup vs. the Kings, while Wall has seen a price decrease of -$800 over the past month. All three make for strong options today.

Spencer Dinwiddie just signed a nice contract extension with the Nets, and it was deserved based on his recent play. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.28 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has increased his fantasy production to 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Wizards, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The shooting guard position doesn’t look particularly appealing on today’s slate, but Victor Oladipo could be someone worth considering. He was limited to just 29 minutes in his first game back from injury, but the Pacers ultimately won that game 16 points. He could definitely see more minutes today in a pace-up spot vs. the 76ers.

He’s also priced at just $8,600 on FanDuel, which is an appealing salary if he’s not limited: He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.16 with a comparable salary as a member of the Pacers. He will likely see reduced ownership as a result of his injury — he’s currently projected for just 5-8% on FanDuel — which makes him an ideal target for GPPs. He scored 67.7 FanDuel points in his first meeting with the 76ers this season.

Value

Jordan Clarkson has thrived in a sixth-man role for the Cavaliers this season, averaging 0.96 FanDuel points per minute off the bench. He leads the team with a usage rate of 29.5% and is coming off 34 minutes in his most recent outing. He likely won’t see that much playing time today, but he doesn’t need to at just $5,000 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

D’Angelo Russell was limited to just 22 minutes in his most recent game, but that seems like an outlier. He’s played at least 30 minutes in seven of his eight previous contests and is currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That kind of playing time would make him a nice value on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

Klay Thompson has been priced down to just $6,200 on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting target vs. the Kings. He’s obviously seen a reduction in value with the return of Curry and Draymond Green, but Thompson has still managed an average Plus/Minus of +1.49 with a comparable salary over the past three seasons. Plus, Thompson’s history vs. the Kings is pretty impressive:

Small Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo was a surprise inactive the last time the Bucks played the Cavs, but he should be a full go tonight. It’s an excellent matchup, with the Cavs currently ranking dead last in defensive efficiency. The Bucks are implied for 114.5 points, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate.

Giannis also looks like a nice value at $11,000 on DraftKings. He’s seen a price decrease of -$500 over the past month, and his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He leads all players on the slate in floor, ceiling, and median projection, and the only real question is if the Cavs can keep this game competitive: They’re currently listed as 10.5-point underdogs.

Value

Juan Hernangomez has been a nice source of value on DraftKings recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.49 over his past 10 games. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle, seeing at least 36.5 in each of his past four games. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and that combination of playing time and productivity makes him an appealing target at just $4,700 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Josh Richardson has been a major disappointment recently, but it could be a nice time to buy low on him. He’s been priced down to just $5,600 on DraftKings — which is his lowest mark of the season by a significant margin — and results in a Bargain Rating of 95%. The Heat could also be without both Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade for tonight’s contest, which would give Richardson ample playing time and usage opportunities.

Kevin Durant could be worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He doesn’t offer quite the same ceiling with the team at full strength but does have an excellent matchup vs. the Kings. They’re currently playing at the second-fastest pace in the league, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 121.5 ranks first on the slate by a considerable margin.

Power Forward

Stud

The power forward position on FanDuel is headlined by two names that aren’t typically thought of as studs: John Collins and Larry Nance Jr. That said, both players have played really well recently, with Collins posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.21 over his past 10 games and Nance posting a Plus/Minus of at least +9.16 in each of his past three games.

Collins has averaged a strong 1.13 FanDuel points per minute this season and is coming off 36 minutes in his most recent outing. He has a difficult matchup today vs. the Celtics, but it’s much less daunting with Al Horford out of the lineup.

Nance Jr. has always been a strong per-minute producer but has seen a nice bump in playing time recently given the injury to Tristan Thompson.

Both players are stronger values on DraftKings, where each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 95%.

Value

Trey Lyles is going to be an interesting option with Millsap out of the lineup for the Nuggets. He started two games ago and scored 28.5 DraftKings points in a whopping 38.5 minutes, but came off the bench in their most recent game. He still managed to return value at his minimal salary, but it appears as though the Nuggets are going to play matchups with Lyles and Mason Plumlee. Regardless, he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he seems underpriced at $4,400 on DraftKings.

Fast Break

Jonas Valanciunas will miss extended time after undergoing thumb surgery, which should result in a few extra minutes for Pascal Siakam and Serge Ibaka. Both players have been strong on a per-minute basis this season, and each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 86% on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Trail Blazers. They’d also see a bump in value if Kawhi Leonard were ruled out for the third straight game.

It’s officially Kevin Knox season in New York. He entered the starting lineup in their last game and has scored at least 33.9 FanDuel points in each of his past two games. He’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and should only see more minutes as the season progresses.

Center

Stud

Joel Embiid busted out of his slump in a big way on Wednesday, putting up 62.4 FanDuel points vs. the Brooklyn Nets. That said, everything was set up for him to succeed: The Nets have struggled with opposing centers all season, and Jimmy Butler missed the game due to a groin injury. There’s a chance that Butler could miss today’s game as well, and Embiid has seen a team-high usage bump of +3.2% with Butler off the floor since joining the 76ers.

However, his current matchup vs. the Pacers is a significantly tougher test: They currently rank third in defensive efficiency and just 24th in pace. Embiid has a difficult individual matchup as well, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.50 on FanDuel.

Value

Aron Baynes looks like a nice potential value at just $3,900 on FanDuel given his matchup vs. the Hawks. They’ve been poor on the glass this season, ranking just 26th in team rebound rate, in addition to playing at a fast pace and struggling defensively. Baynes has averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his current salary.

Fast Break

Jusuf Nurkic has been priced down to just $6,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s always been a strong producer when on the court, but the bigger issue has been earning consistent playing time. That said, he’s played at least 29 minutes in seven of his past eight games, which makes him a strong target at his current salary.

Kevon Looney doesn’t offer much in terms of a ceiling, but he looks like a pretty reliable target for cash games. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92% over the past month on DraftKings and is in a strong spot vs. the Sacramento Kings. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.47 on DraftKings, where his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Good luck!

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

Pictured Above: Monte Morris (11), Trey Lyles (7), & Mason Plumlee (24)
Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports