The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook is coming off his best game of the season after scoring 77.25 DraftKings points vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. It’s been a bit of a down year by Westbrook’s lofty standards – he’s averaging more than five fewer fantasy points than last season and 12 fewer fantasy points than his MVP season two years ago – but he’s still managed an average Plus/Minus of +2.73 over his past 10 games on DraftKings.
He’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who are currently playing at the fastest pace in the league. The Thunder’s resulting implied team total of 121.0 points ranks second on the slate and represents an increase of greater than 10 points compared to their season average (110.3). Westbrook leads all PGs with a whopping 16 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $11,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Ben Simmons looks like one of the better values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95% and has a great matchup vs. the Washington Wizards. Both Washington and Philadelphia have played very fast this season – both teams ranking in the top seven in pace – and the Wizards also rank just 28th in defensive efficiency. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.66 for Simmons, who has seen a price decrease of $1,100 over the past month on DraftKings. This looks like an excellent buy-low opportunity.
Value
The Suns are going to be without T.J. Warren today, which makes Elie Okobo an intriguing option at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s averaged a respectable 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season and played approximately 32 minutes in their most recent contest. He may not see as much playing time if today’s game stays competitive, but he’s a low-risk, high-reward option at just $3,000.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving has been excellent recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.78 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s done it by increasing his per-minute output to 1.46 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which trails only Westbrook’s production at the position. He should also see a boost with both Jaylen Brown and Al Horford out of the lineup today: He’s seen a usage bump of +4.6% with both players off the floor this season.
Tim Frazier started and played 37 minutes in the Pelicans’ last game and took advantage with 40.2 FanDuel points. He should continue to start with Elfrid Payton and Frank Jackson both sidelined, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88 vs. the Miami Heat.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has put up some ridiculous numbers with Chris Paul out of the lineup recently, averaging 77.9 DraftKings points and a +20.79 Plus/Minus over his past three games. He’s absolutely dominated the ball with Paul off the floor this season, posting a 41.3% usage rate and 55.3% assist rate, so it’s not surprising that he’s been successful with his star running mate out. He would be hard to pass up if Paul were to miss today’s contest vs. the San Antonio Spurs, who currently rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Value
The Heat could be a nice team to target today in a pace-up spot vs. the Pelicans. They’re still without both Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson, which leaves them pretty thin in the backcourt.
It’s hard to look past Wayne Ellington on DraftKings, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He recently entered the starting lineup and is coming off 37.75 DraftKings points in his last game.
Rodney McGruder looks like the superior target on FanDuel. He’s been playing big minutes virtually all season and is currently projected for 34.5 in our NBA Models. He’s priced at just $4,900 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.09 (per the Trends tool).
Finally, Dwyane Wade might have the biggest upside of the bunch. He’s led the team in usage with both Dragic and Johnson off the floor this season and has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He exploded for 52.75 DraftKings points just two games ago and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games.
Fast Break
Inserting Frazier into the starting lineup did nothing to slow down Jrue Holiday, who has posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on FanDuel. Playing next to a traditional PG will allow him to play more off the ball, which could bode well for his scoring potential moving forward.
Marcus Smart started and played over 39.5 minutes with Brown out of the lineup last game and could see a similar role today vs. the Cavs. It’s an excellent matchup, with Cleveland ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, and Smart has averaged a respectable 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF position is usually very top-heavy, but that’s not the case tonight. LeBron James is nearly $2,000 more expensive than any other option at the position, putting him in his own tier at $11,000 on FanDuel and $10,600 on DraftKings.
That said, LeBron has been far from dominant recently, owning an average Plus/Minus of -2.52 over his past 10 games and a Consistency Rating of just 64% over the past month on DraftKings. He did post a strong game yesterday vs. the Pacers, scoring 62.75 DraftKings points in 38 minutes, but he doesn’t seem to offer the same ceiling or floor as guys like Westbrook and Harden this year.
He’s also in a subpar spot vs. the Dallas Mavericks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.29. He’s projected for only 9-12% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which could make him intriguing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but there appear to be better options available.
Value
The Wizards have the potential to be pretty shorthanded today in their frontcourt. Dwight Howard is expected to miss the next few months after undergoing surgery, and Otto Porter has been ruled out for tonight’s contest for personal reasons. Jeff Green is also questionable with a back injury, which could result in a massive role for Kelly Oubre. He’s averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and could see well over 30 minutes in today’s contest vs. the 76ers. He’s particularly appealing at just $4,600 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Josh Jackson figures to be one of the most popular value options of the day. He will enter the starting lineup in place of the injured Warren and has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which gives him huge upside at just $3,800. That said, he hasn’t played more than 25 minutes since opening night, so it seems unlikely that he’ll rack up a ton of playing time tonight.
Jabari Parker has been dominant recently for the Bulls, scoring at least 35.0 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games. He also posted a season-high usage rate of 34.5% in his last contest and has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute on the season. He’s appealing at $6,700.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis started slowly in his last game but still managed to finish with 58.25 DraftKings points in just under 34.5 minutes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 games on DraftKings, with the two exceptions being a game vs. the Spurs – who have basically been his personal kryptonite over the past few seasons – and a game he briefly exited vs. the Knicks. There’s no reason to expect anything different today vs. the Miami Heat, and his $11,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. The presence of Harden and Westbrook should also result in slightly lower ownership than usual.
Value
Alec Burks is expected to make his debut for the Cavaliers today, but that shouldn’t do much to lower the stock of Larry Nance Jr. He’s started each of the past two games for the Cavaliers and has averaged 37 minutes per game in those contests. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he remains affordable across the industry for today’s matchup vs. the Celtics.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris is another member of the Wizards who deserves attention today. He’s scored at least 31.75 DraftKings points in four straight games and has played at least 32 minutes in each of his past two, and that was with Porter and Green playing in both contests. He could see an even larger role if both players are inactive today, and he owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.07 vs. the 76ers.
Stacking the Morris twins is definitely a viable option. Marcus Morris should also see a bump in playing time with Brown and Horford out of the lineup and has seen a team-high usage increase of +4.8% with both players off the floor. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Center
Stud
There are lots of studs to choose from today, but don’t forget about Joel Embiid. He has an elite matchup vs. the Wizards, who have been the worst rebounding team in the league with Howard off the floor this season. He has the potential to dominate their big men in the post, and his average of 1.56 FanDuel points per minute trails only Westbrook’s mark on today’s slate.
Value
Cody Zeller doesn’t offer much in terms of ceiling but has been really reliable over the past month on DraftKings. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91% over that time frame, including an average Plus/Minus of +6.59 over his past nine games. He remains a nice value on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Aron Baynes will likely draw the start at center for the Celtics today vs. the Cavs. That makes him an intriguing option at just $3,200 on DraftKings, especially considering his average of 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. He figures to be one of the best points-per-dollar options on today’s slate.
Steven Adams has failed to return value in each of his past two games, but this could be an excellent time to buy low on him. His salary has decreased to $7,000 on FanDuel, and he has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve been crushed on the glass all season, giving Adams an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.19.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Markieff Morris
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports
