NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Fri. 2/22): Stack the Pistons vs. the Hawks

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Russell Westbrook is coming off a miserable performance in the All-Star game — his team was outscored by 19 points during the 19 minutes he was on the court — but he’s been an amazing fantasy asset over his past 10 regular season games.

He posted an average Plus/Minus of +11.44 on DraftKings, including posting a positive Plus/Minus in all 10 contests. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position.

Unfortunately, he’s in a tough spot today vs. the Utah Jazz. They currently rank third in the league in defensive efficiency, and Westbrook owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.14 on FanDuel. He’s also struggled in his first two meetings with the Jazz this season, scoring just 38.9 and 39.2 FanDuel points. He still possesses a high ceiling, but his floor is lower than usual on today’s slate.

Value

Jeff Teague is one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s averaged a stout 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has scored at least 42.5 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. He also has a dream matchup vs. the Knicks, who rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season.

Teague would also be one of the primary beneficiaries if Karl-Anthony Towns is unable to suit up. He was involved in a car accident while heading to the airport yesterday and is currently listed as questionable. Teague has seen a usage bump of +6.8% with Towns off the court after the team traded away Jimmy Butler, resulting in an average of 1.13 DraftKings points per minute.

Fast Break

The Grizzlies are an interesting team to target at the point guard position on today’s slate. Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable, while Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas have already been ruled out. That leaves their backcourt to pick up most of the scoring slack.

Mike Conley is the obvious target in spite of his recent results. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of -10.74 or worse in each of his past three games, but that has caused his salary to decrease substantially for today’s matchup vs. the Clippers. His current $7,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.

Delon Wright also deserves some consideration. He’s scored at least 26.0 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, and his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Darren Collison doesn’t offer much in terms of ceiling but has been a reliable target over the past month. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91% on DraftKings over that time frame while increasing his fantasy production to 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He has one of the best individual matchups of the day vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Bradley Beal probably hasn’t gotten the recognition he’s deserved recently. He’s been an extremely reliable source of production, scoring at least 41.2 FanDuel points in 10 of his past 11 games.

He’s increased his output to 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and commands one of the largest workloads on a night-to-night basis. Beal is currently projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the second highest mark regardless of position. He’s a particularly strong option today on FanDuel, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.

Value

Kevin Huerter is doubtful today for the Atlanta Hawks, which increases the appeal of Kent Bazemore. He’s an excellent producer on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he should see a solid bump in playing time with Huerter out of the lineup. He’s underpriced across the industry.

Fast Break

Tim Hardaway Jr. could be forced into a monster workload today vs. the Denver Nuggets. Luka Doncic is currently questionable, and Hardaway has seen a usage bump of +15.0% with Doncic and the Harrison Barnes off the court as a member of the Mavericks. The result is an average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute, which would make him an extremely appealing target if Doncic is unable to suit up.

Luke Kennard has seen a nice boost in playing time recently, seeing at least 28.5 minutes in three of his past four games. He’s scored at least 22.75 DraftKings points in each of those contests and is in a wonderful spot today vs. the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league and rank just 28th in defensive efficiency, which makes him a strong target at just $4,000 on DraftKings.

Small Forward

Stud

Kawhi Leonard struggled mightily in his first #RevengeGame vs. the San Antonio Spurs, scoring just 32.7 FanDuel points in 32.5 minutes. He’s also failed to return value in each of his past five games on FanDuel, which will probably result in reduced ownership for tonight’s contest.

That makes him an interesting target on FanDuel, where his salary has decreased by -$800 over the past month. His current $9,500 price tag also results in a Bargain Rating of 82%. The Spurs have been abysmal defensively of late, allowing 125.4 points per 100 possessions during their recent road trip, which gives Leonard big upside in tonight’s contest.

Value

Dorian Finney-Smith has been a nice source of value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.91 on DraftKings. He figures to be one of their biggest beneficiaries following the trade deadline and has played at least 33 minutes in three of his past five games. He’s averaged a respectable 0.76 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and players with a comparable salary and minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.13 (per the Trends tool).

Fast Break

Moving from Washington to Chicago appears to have been a blessing for Otto Porter from a fantasy perspective. He’s playing more minutes, logging at least 33.5 in his first four games, and attempted a season-high 20 shots in his last game. He’s in a tough spot today vs. the Orlando Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.54 on FanDuel, but has big upside at his current salary across the industry.

Rudy Gay is underpriced at just $5,400 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Raptors. He’s averaged a stout 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has played at least 32 minutes in each of his past two games. He found success in his first matchup vs. the Raptors, scoring 28.25 DraftKings points in just over 23 minutes.

Power Forward

Stud

There are plenty of strong options to pay up for on today’s slate, but Blake Griffin should be near the top of your list. He’s in a dream spot today vs. the Hawks, who have been crushed by opposing big men all season.

It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.17, and the Pistons’ implied team total of 113.25 represents a big increase when compared to their season average (106.6). He’s disappointed in his first two matchups vs. the Hawks this season, but this is a potential smash spot. He leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings and all power forwards with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Value

Ivan Rabb is way too cheap on FanDuel, where his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and should see a significant boost in playing time with Valanciunas out of the lineup. If Jackson Jr. is also ruled out, Rabb would become close to a must play at his current salary.

Fast Break

Luke Kornet is another appealing value option on today’s slate. He’s played at least 28 minutes in each of his past two games and has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season. Even if he doesn’t play that much today – he’s currently projected for 23 minutes in our NBA Models — he can still do some damage at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

Aaron Gordon is coming 32.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, but his day could’ve been much bigger. He shot just 4-17 from the field, so he should increase his scoring numbers if he sees some positive regression in that department. He’s in a great spot today vs. the Bulls, who have posted the fourth-worst rebound rate this season.

Center

Stud

Andre Drummond benefits from the same elite matchup as Griffin today, and he looks like the more appealing target of the two on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $9,000, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged an elite 1.58 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails only Nikola Jokic at the center position on today’s slate. Drummond has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.78 over his past 10 games and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games vs. the Hawks this season.

Value

The Hornets lead all teams with an implied team total of 118.5 points on today’s slate, which makes them an appealing target vs. the Washington Wizards. Cody Zeller has been fantastic recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.57 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and his matchup in particular is exception. The Wizards have struggled mightily on the glass this season, ranking just 29th in team rebound rate. He’s a strong value at $5,200 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%.

Fast Break

Myles Turner is questionable to suit up with a hip injury, but he’s in a strong spot today if he’s able to suit up. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.42 vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, and that number only figures to increase with Anthony Davis playing fewer minutes following the All-Star break.

If Turner can’t go, look for Domantas Sabonis to draw the start and provide excellent value at his current salary.

Joakim Noah has had a resurgence with Memphis Grizzlies, averaging 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.12, and his $4,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.

Pictured: Pistons PF Blake Griffin (23) and C Andre Drummond (0)
Photo Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports