The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games and is in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Sacramento Kings. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, and the Warriors’ resulting implied team total of 123 points is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin.
Curry also has a strong individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.79 on DraftKings. He’s seen a price decrease of -$300 over the past month, so this could be a nice time to buy low on him.
Value
T.J. McConnell has been a phenomenal source of value recently, posting a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on DraftKings. That includes an average Plus/Minus of +6.26 over his past 10 games, yet McConnell remains affordable at just $3,600.
He would also see a nice boost in value if Jimmy Butler were to miss today’s contest. McConnell played 28 minutes sans Butler in his most recent game and has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in a great spot against the Dallas Mavericks, who will be playing their third road game in the past four days.
Fast Break
Fred VanVleet saw reduced minutes in a blowout in his last contest but should return to his normal workload today vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. Kyle Lowry is currently listed as doubtful, and VanVleet has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.9 on FanDuel with Lowry out of the lineup this season. He’s underpriced at just $5,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
De’Aaron Fox leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Historically, comparably priced players have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.53 with a similar number of Pro Trends (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
DraftKings has finally priced James Harden up to a reasonable $12,200 salary, but it still might not be high enough. He’s put together an absolutely ridiculous stretch over his past 11 games:
James Harden, last 11 games:
50-11-10, W
32-10-12, W
47-5-6, W
35-9-3, W
35-12-6, L
39-10-4, W
41-7-6, W
45-6-2, W
41-6-9, W
43-13-10, W
44-15-10, WRockets are 6-0 since Chris Paul got hurt. Harden averaging 42-10-7 during that stretch. #MVP
— Justin Phan (@jphanned) January 4, 2019
The result is an average of 71.68 DraftKings points per game, including a season-high 91.0 points in his last game vs. the Warriors.
Harden is in a mediocre spot today vs. the Portland Trail Blazers – they rank middle of the road in both pace and defensive efficiency this season – but matchup is basically irrelevant for Harden at this point. He offers the safest floor and highest ceiling in fantasy every time he takes the floor.
Value
Austin Rivers remains underpriced on FanDuel, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games, including a Plus/Minus of at least +11.09 in two of his past three games.
Rivers is currently projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.58.
Fast Break
Bogdan Bogdanovic disappointed a bit in his most recent contest, which could result in slightly lower ownership on today’s slate. That said, he’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and had scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in four of his five prior contests.
Targeting players in the game between the Warriors and Kings seems like a smart strategy on today’s slate: The over/under of 238.5 points is the highest mark by a whopping 12 points.
Alec Burks could be an interesting target, given the Cavs’ current injury situation. They’re going to be without both Matthew Dellavedova and David Nwaba, while Rodney Hood is currently listed as questionable.
That could result in a few extra minutes for Burks in a great matchup vs. the Pelicans, who have played at the sixth fastest pace this season and have fallen all the way to 27th in defensive efficiency.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position is a strong one today, but one that could be slightly overlooked at the top. Harden and Anthony Davis will likely draw the majority of attention among the stud targets, which could make Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard under-owned in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Durant has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three games, but he has valid excuses for all of them. He saw the individual defense of P.J. Tucker in his most recent contest, who has historically done as good a job as anyone at shutting Durant down.
The other two games both turned into blowouts, which resulted in reduced minutes. Durant has scored 73.75 and 55.0 DraftKings points in two meetings with the Kings this season, so this could be the perfect time to buy low on him.
Leonard is also coming off a disappointing outing in his last contest. That said, it was one of the most hostile environments I’ve ever seen for a basketball player. He was booed relentlessly every time he touched the basketball from the opening tip to the final whistle. Even though these guys are professionals, that’s a difficult situation for anyone to handle.
Things should return to normal today, albeit in a difficult matchup vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. Leonard is one of the best values of the day at just $9,000 on DraftKings, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s averaged more than 45 DraftKings points per game with Lowry out of the lineup.
Value
E’Twuan Moore has seen a solid bump in playing time over his past three games. He’s seen the floor for at least 33 minutes in each of them, resulting in an average of 26.17 FanDuel points per game. Moore remains affordable at just $4,400 for today’s contest vs. the Cavs, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t look like as strong of a value as Durant or Leonard today, but his ceiling is unmatched at the position. He could be worth considering in GPPs despite a tough matchup vs. the Raptors, especially on DraftKings (Bargain Rating of 98%).
Kyle Anderson has been outstanding recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.63 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That includes scoring a season-high 45.25 DraftKings points in his last game vs. the Nets courtesy of a triple-double.
He could see a few less minutes today with Justin Holiday expected to make his team debut, but Anderson’s strong recent play should solidify a large role in the rotation. He’s way too cheap at $4,900 on DraftKings (Bargain Rating of 99%).
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis vs. Harden is going to be the big question for a lot of people on DraftKings. It’s still possible to play them together in the same lineup, but DraftKings has made it much tougher than it has been for the past week or so. Locking them in together leaves you an average of just $4,367 for your remaining six roster spots, which means you’ll likely have to surround them almost exclusively with value plays.
Davis has been almost as good as Harden recently, averaging 1.73 DraftKings points per minute over his past month and a Plus/Minus of +9.18 over his past 10 games.
He crushed the Nets in his most recent contest, recording 34 points and 26 rebounds, and he gets a juicy matchup today vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. Davis also seems like a slightly better value than Harden on DraftKings, where his $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. You can’t go wrong with either option.
Value
Larry Nance Jr. entered the starting lineup for the Cavs in their last game to try and combat the size of the Jazz, and he could start once again vs. the Pelicans. He’s averaged a stout 1.2 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 29 minutes, which makes him a strong option at just $6,000 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Draymond Green was severely underpriced on DraftKings for his last game, and he responded with 40.75 fantasy points. He’s been priced up more aggressively for today’s contest, but he could still be a value at just $6,800 vs. the Kings.
LaMarcus Aldridge wasn’t asked to do much in his most recent contest since DeMar DeRozan basically dominated from the opening whistle, which could make him an interesting target today. Aldridge has a brutal matchup vs. the Grizzlies but is underpriced on DraftKings (Bargain Rating of 98%).
Center
Stud
The center position is loaded with strong values – particularly on DraftKings – but it would be impossible to ignore Joel Embiid if Butler were to miss today’s contest. He dominated with Butler out of the lineup in his last game, scoring 42 points and recording 18 rebounds en route to 77.5 DraftKings points.
Embiid has seen a team-high usage bump of +3.2% with Butler off the floor since he was acquired from the Timberwolves, resulting in an average of 1.71 DraftKings points per minute. He’s significantly cheaper than both Harden and Davis but would offer a similar level of production if Butler were ultimately ruled out.
Value
The Warriors have been dominated by centers for the majority of the season, which makes Willie Cauley-Stein an interesting value option on DraftKings. He’s been priced down to just $6,000 on DraftKings (Bargain Rating of 99%), despite having a good matchup (Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14).
Cauley-Stein has been a strong value with a comparable salary this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.32.
Fast Break
In addition to Embiid, there are four other stud-caliber centers with massive Bargain Ratings on DraftKings:
- Andre Drummond — $,7900 (98% Bargain Rating)
- Clint Caplea — $7,800 (95% Bargain Rating)
- Jusuf Nurkic — $7,600 (99% Bargain Rating)
- Rudy Gobert — $7,500 (99% Bargain Rating)
Of the quartet, Gobert has the best matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.90 vs. the Detroit Pistons. He’s averaged of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month also trails only Embiid’s at the position.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Rockets G James Harden
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
