The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook racked up 60.0 DraftKings points and a triple-double in his most recent contest, but it could’ve been so much more. He shot just 3-20 from the field vs. the Lakers, which is the third time in the past two weeks that he’s made less than 20% of his shots. Westbrook has never been a great shooter, but he seems like he’s due for some positive regression. He leads all PGs with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings and is projected for just 5-8% ownership, which could make him an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Kyrie Irving will miss his second straight game for the Boston Celtics, which means Terry Rozier will likely draw another start at PG. He’s been excellent with Irving out of the lineup this season, averaging 33.73 FanDuel points and a +13.0 Plus/Minus over three games. He’s been priced up to $6,100 on FanDuel, but he still owns a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Fast Break
Lonzo Ball looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $6,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s failed to return value in each of his past two games but has an excellent matchup vs. the New York Knicks. They currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 115.5 ranks third on the slate.
Ricky Rubio is currently questionable for the Utah Jazz, and his absence would make Dante Exum one of the strongest plays of the day. He dominated with Rubio out of the lineup on Saturday, scoring 33.5 DraftKings points in 26 minutes, and he has an elite matchup vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and Collin Sexton ranks 97th out of 98 qualifiers at PG in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal was a bit of a disappointment in his last game, scoring ‘just’ 42.0 DraftKings points vs. the Atlanta Hawks. That said, his fantasy arrow is still clearly pointing up with John Wall out of the lineup. He’s led the team in both usage rate and assist rate in games without Wall this season, resulting in an average of 51.58 DraftKings points per game.
He’s in a decent spot today vs. the Miami Heat, giving Beal an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.12 on DraftKings. He should also see reduced ownership after his last game – he’s currently projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings – and his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. This could be a nice time to try and buy low on him.
Value
The Celtics have a pair of interesting SG options on today’s slate. Jaylen Brown looks like the best option on FanDuel, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and should approach 30 minutes today despite coming off the bench. Brown would also see a nice bump in value if Marcus Morris is ruled out; he’s increased his usage by 1.9% with both Morris and Irving off the court this season.
Marcus Smart looks like the superior value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he’s seen a team-high usage bump of +5.1% with Irving and Morris off the court.
Fast Break
Zach LaVine has been limited since returning from an injury recently, but those days might be over. The Bulls traded away Justin Holiday, who has led the team with an average of 34.9 minutes per game this season. LaVine is currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this year, which could make him an elite value at $6,300 on DraftKings.
Lou Williams has been a scoring machine recently, posting at least 36.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. He’s increased his production to 1.35 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which gives him huge upside across the industry. He’s also in an excellent spot today vs. the Suns, who rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season. The Clippers’ resulting implied team total of 119.25 ranks second on the slate.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been excellent on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.64 DraftKings points per minute, but that hasn’t always translated into positive results. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.71 on DraftKings over his first 34 games, yet his salary has increased by $700 over that time frame. New coach Mike Budenholzer is playing Giannis far fewer minutes than some of the other top players in the league, which doesn’t give him a ton of consistency on a night-to-night basis.
That said, he’s in an absolute smash spot today vs. the Atlanta Hawks. Both of these teams have played at a top-six pace this season, so this game could turn into a track meet. Atlanta also ranks just 25th in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ resulting implied team total of 121.5 ranks first on the slate by a significant margin. Giannis also owns a strong individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.89, and his $11,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Jonathan Isaac has played in two straight blowouts, which could make this an excellent time to buy low on him. He should return to his normal workload today vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves – he’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes – and has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute for the season. The Timberwolves will be without their best defender in Robert Covington, which makes this an elite matchup as well: They’ve allowed 112.7 points per 100 possessions with Covington off the court since acquiring him from the 76ers. Isaac is priced at a discount at $3,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
Chandler Hutchison has not been particularly impressive when on the court this season, averaging 0.62 DraftKings points per minute, but he’s impossible to ignore at just $3,000 on DraftKings. He’s projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and minimum-priced players with a comparable minutes projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.77 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Brandon Ingram has scored at least 36.7 FanDuel points in each of his past two games and could be in line for a huge workload today vs. the Knicks. The Lakers will be without both LeBron James and Rajon Rondo, while Kyle Kuzma is currently listed as questionable. Ingram has seen a usage bump of +7.9% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 FanDuel points per minute.
Power Forward
Stud
The PF position is probably the weakest on today’s slate, with no true stud really standing out. That said, Aaron Gordon could deserve some consideration vs. the shorthanded Timberwolves. He’s still priced down a bit across the industry and has scored at least 41.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
Value
Jayson Tatum is yet another member of the Celtics who should benefit from their current injury situation. He’s priced at a discount on FanDuel at $6,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he’s averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
The Knicks have a pair of interesting PF options on today’s slate. Kevin Knox was the Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month for December, averaging 17.1 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. As a result, he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.60 over the past month on FanDuel.
Noah Vonleh hasn’t been as efficient of a scorer, but he’s been much more proficient in piling up peripheral statistics. He’s grabbed at least 10 rebounds in seven of his past nine games, and his $6,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Both players have an elite matchup vs. the Lakers, who have played at a faster pace and allowed more points per 100 possessions with LeBron out of the lineup.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been an absolute monster recently, scoring at least 52.0 DraftKings points in each of his past five games. He eclipsed 70 DraftKings points in two of those contests, so he has huge upside at his current $9,900 salary. He’s in a decent spot today vs. the Orlando Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.37.
The one interesting X-factor to monitor is the Timberwolves’ PG situation. Jeff Teague will return to the starting lineup tonight, while Derrick Rose has been upgraded to questionable. Towns has thrived with both players out of the lineup, which is not surprising since backup PG Tyus Jones commands a much lower usage rate. If both players are active today, Towns could see a few less shot attempts, which could make it tough to return value at his elevated salary.
Value
JaVale McGee has been a massive value recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.54 on DraftKings over his past seven games. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he owns an excellent +2.78 Opponent Plus/Minus vs. the Knicks. He’s also massively underpriced at $5,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton has been fantastic over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +10.39 on DraftKings, and leads all centers today in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Los Angeles Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.18.
Tristan Thompson made his return to the lineup on Wednesday and should see an increase in playing time in his second game back from injury. He was one of the best values in fantasy prior to his injury, so he’s someone to keep on your radar at his current reduced salary.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
