The NBA All-Star game will take place Sunday at 8 p.m. ET on TNT.
Strategy
This game has been played for close to 70 years but got an overhaul in 2018. Instead of using the traditional East vs. West format, the top vote-getter from each conference was made a team captain and then drafted their team from the pool of remaining All-Stars.
The first year using that format saw a huge decline in scoring. The number of points scored has historically risen in each season – the teams combined for 321 points in 2015, 369 points in 2016, and 374 points in 2018 – before shrinking in 2018. The two teams combined for just 293 points, leaving many to wonder if the new format would result in harder-fought, more defensive All-Star games moving forward.
Turns out, it was just a one-year blip. Scoring returned to normal in last year’s game, with Team LeBron beating Team Giannis, 178-164.
That said, the format was tweaked again in 2020. They added a few new wrinkles, and those changes will return this season. The team that wins each quarter will receive a charitable donation towards their respective beneficiary, and the fourth quarter will be decided using the Elam Ending.
Those tweaks were successful in turning up the defensive intensity. Last year’s contest ended 157-155, and the total on this year’s game sits at 317 points. That still means there should be a ton of scoring, but it’s a far cry from the 374 total points scored in 2017.
There is obviously a bunch of uncertainty in this contest, but there are a few key takeaways to keep in mind.
- Target the starters
The playing time in this game is pretty evenly distributed, but the starters still tend to play more than the reserves. In 2019, the four players with the most minutes on each team were all starters, and only three reserves saw more than 19.8 minutes off the bench.
Things were a bit different last year. The starters for Team LeBron all played 20.4 minutes or less, and the three players with the highest minute counts were all reserves. With that in mind, there is a bit of risk with targeting LeBron this season. He has carried a large workload during the first half of the year – particularly after Anthony Davis went down with an injury – so it would not be surprising if he used the All-Star break to get some much-needed rest. He should still put on a show when he’s on the court, but he might let his talented roster handle the majority of the minutes.
- Guards reign supreme
The number of 3-point attempts that we see in the All-Star game continues to rise on a yearly basis. The two teams combined to shoot 167 3-pointers in 2019 — which is an absolutely mind-boggling number – and that number was 110 in 2020. Team Giannis didn’t hold up its end of the bargain last year, which is not surprising since they were essentially devoid of 3-point shooters.
Kawhi Leonard led all scorers with 30 points last season, and unsurprisingly he led the field with eight 3-pointers. Chris Paul and Kemba Walker also knocked down at least five triples apiece, and both players finished with 23 points.
The rebounding numbers are also more evenly distributed than in a typical NBA game, and blocked shots are pretty much nonexistent. The majority of fantasy scoring in this game is going to come from points, assists, and steals, all of which favor the guard position.
Format
Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) for this game, but each site features a slightly different format.
DraftKings features its Showdown format, where you select one captain and five utility players. Your captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but his salary will also be 1.5x more expensive.
FanDuel’s format is a little more complicated. You have to choose only five players, but you have to select one captain (2x scoring), one star (1.5x scoring), one pro (1.2x scoring), and two utilities. Most players will likely choose to put their highest-salaried players in the premium roster positions, so fading some of the big names at captain should increase your chances for a unique lineup.
If you’re looking to brush up on your single-game DFS strategy, make sure to check out my primers on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Rosters
Team LeBron
Starters: LeBron James (captain), Luka Dončić, Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic
LeBron has amassed a truly absurd level of talent for this contest. A starting lineup of LeBron, Doncic, Curry, Antetokounmpo, and Jokic is downright terrifying. His team has won each of the past three iterations of this contest, and part of that stems from his ability to draft his opposing GM under the table.
Team LeBron is once again favored to take home the ASG crown in 2021. They’re currently listed as four-point favorites, which gives them a slight edge in terms of implied team total.
LeBron is the most expensive player on FanDuel and the third-most-expensive on DraftKings, and I’m hesitant to target him at that price tag. As much as LeBron wants to win this game, he knows that it does nothing for his legacy. Preserving himself for the second half – including another run a title – is far more important, so expect his minutes to be down for the second straight year. The only interesting wrinkle is that Quin Snyder is coaching Team LeBron. It would be in his best interest to put as much strain as possible on King James, but I doubt he’ll actually do it.
Giannis is the most expensive player on DraftKings, and it’s hard to argue against his past production in All-Star games. He doesn’t fit the prototype of guys I typically look for in exhibitions – in other words, he doesn’t shoot 3’s – but he finished with 25 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, one steal, and three blocks in last year’s contest. He also led all scorers with 38 points in 2019, and his ability to stuff the stat sheet and utilize his athleticism is enough to overcome his lack of a 3-point shot.
Doncic is an interesting option. He’s put together another fantastic season for the Mavericks, and he’ll earn his second-straight All-Star Game start. He didn’t do much in last year’s contest, so this could be his chance for a breakout performance. That said, he’s a pretty mediocre 3-point shooter, and he also isn’t the type of guy who will be finishing alley-oops or putting on a show in transition. He also tied with James Harden for the fewest minutes among starters last year on Team LeBron. I’m fine with fading him.
Curry missed this contest last year, and he’ll be looking to rebound from a disappointing performance two years ago. He finished with just 11 points and shot a disappointing 4-14 from the field and 3-13 from 3-point range. That said, the 11 3-point attempts are definitely tantalizing. If he can get hot in this contest – which Curry has been known to do from time-to-time – he could be looking at a huge day. He’s my pick to win the MVP at +800, and hopefully, he can get into a rhythm with the 3-point contest taking place before the game.
Last but not least is Jokic, who has been arguably the fantasy MVP from the first half of the season. He’s carried a Nuggets squad that has dealt with a host of injuries, so I don’t expect him to go too hard in this contest. He played less than 12 minutes last year, and he finished with just five points, two rebounds, and one assist.
Reserves: Jaylen Brown, Paul George, Rudy Gobert, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Domantas Sabonis, Ben Simmons (inactive)
The first thing to note is that Simmons will not be able to suit up due to health and safety protocols. His barber has tested positive for COVID-19, so he will not be allowed to join his teammates on the sidelines. Simmons was excellent in this contest last year – he led Team LeBron with 29.3 minutes – and his absence means everyone else on the roster should get a bump in playing time.
Lillard and George stand out as high-priority reserves. Both players can clearly fill it up from deep, and neither player was able to suit up last season. Expect them to try and put on a show tonight, and George, in particular, stands out as an excellent value across the industry. He did miss the Clippers’ final game before the All-Star break due to dizziness, but that shouldn’t result in him being limited on Sunday.
Jaylen Brown will be making his first All-Star Game appearance, and he’s had an excellent first half of the year. He’s been one of the lone constants for the Celtics, who have not lived up to expectations after a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020. That said, he seems a bit pricey compared to some of the other reserves on the slate, and there’s no guarantee he sees much playing time in his first ASG. He seems like a fade to me, but he does fit the criteria of being a good 3-point shooter and someone who can finish in transition.
Chris Paul rounds out the guard rotation, and he has had a huge impact on the Suns this season. They’re currently sitting in second place in the Western Conference – ahead of the Lakers, Clippers, and Nuggets – and Paul just seems to elevate whatever squad he’s playing for. He deserves to go down as one of the greatest point guards in the history of the NBA.
Will that matter in the All-Star Game? Probably not, but he was someone that Team LeBron counted on to close out the game last season. I tend to avoid veteran players like Paul in exhibitions, but he was good enough to find himself in the optimal lineup last year.
Domantas Sabonis and Rudy Gobert round out the roster for Team LeBron. Gobert was actually super productive in this game last season, finishing with 21 points and 11 rebounds. Virtually all of his points came on dunks, and he could serve as a lob threat around the rim again this season.
However, I’d rather roll the dice on Sabonis, who is one of the cheapest players in this contest. He has a more diverse offensive skill set than Gobert, which gives him more avenues to accrue fantasy points. Gobert is also playing for his usual head coach in Snyder, who may not want to put any additional tread on his tires.
Team Durant
Starters: Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, Zion Williamson
The first thing to note here is that Team Durant will not actually feature Kevin Durant. He’s still recovering from a hamstring injury, so he will not suit up in this contest. KD also drafted Joel Embiid, and he will not suit because of COVID protocols, like Simmons.
That leaves them with an interesting starting lineup. They do not feature a traditional center with Williamson in place of Embiid, which is actually very appealing for an exhibition. This team should run and gun, which could make them the preferred team to target in DFS despite being underdogs. They’re also the cheaper team to target across the industry.
Williamson immediately becomes one of the best values on the slate as a starter. He’s extremely cheap, and he should see a few additional minutes in place of Embiid. He should be a major lob threat in transition and in half-court situations, and his skill set can be described as “Giannis-lite”.
The big question is who will emerge as the alpha for Team Durant? Leonard seems like the most obvious choice. He won the MVP last season after a dominant performance, but his history in All-Star games was pretty pedestrian up until that point. He certainly has the potential for another big game, but it’s hard to know what his mindset is heading into Sunday’s contest.f
All of that holds true for Irving, as well. He’s one of the more mercurial stars in the league, and he decided to skip his meeting with the press this morning. He can put on a show with his dribble and 3-point shooting if he wants to, but who knows which version of Kyrie is actually showing up on Sunday?
That leaves Beal and Tatum, and both players are capable of picking up the scoring load if needed. That said, my money is on Beal to deliver the bigger performance. He leads the league with an average of 32.9 points per game this season, and he doesn’t really have to worry about the second half of the year since the Wizards aren’t going anywhere. They’ve played better of late and could still challenge for one of the final playoff spots in the East, but this will likely be the biggest game that Beal plays all season.
Reserves: James Harden, Zach LaVine, Donovan Mitchell, Julius Randle, Nikola Vucevic, Mike Conley, Devin Booker (inactive)
The reserves could play a big part for Team Durant on Sunday.
Harden has a chance to be the top scorer for this squad, and he’s priced like that across the industry. He’s the second-most expensive player on the slate on DraftKings, and he owns the third-highest price tag on FanDuel. He was uncharacteristically quiet in the 2020 All-Star Game, but he launched 13 3-point attempts in both 2018 and 2019.
LaVine and Mitchell are also capable scorers. LaVine in particular seems to have the perfect skill set for this event. We know about his dunking ability, and he’s shooting a career-best 43.5% from 3-point range this season.
Conley is the X-factor. He was a late addition to the team in place of the injured Devin Booker, and he will become the fifth-oldest player in league history to make their All-Star game debut.
FanDuel didn’t even bother to add him to the slate – such disrespect! – but he’s the cheapest player in this contest on DraftKings. He probably won’t play enough to provide a ton of value, but he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary.
Randle and Vucevic are the reserve big men, and they could see plenty of playing time in this contest without Embiid. Both players have diverse skillsets for big men: they can pass, shoot the ball from distance, and rack up rebounds. Vucevic is the cheapest player on the slate on FanDuel, while Randle is the second-cheapest on DraftKings. That could make them viable punt plays.
