The NBA wraps up All-Star Weekend on Sunday with the main event at 8 p.m. ET on TNT.
Strategy
This game has been played for close to 70 years but got an overhaul for last year’s contest. Instead of using the traditional East vs. West format, the top vote-getter from each conference was made a team captain and then drafted their team from the pool of remaining All-Stars. The result was a competitive game in which Team LeBron beat Team Steph by a score of 148-145.
The biggest takeaway was the massive reduction in scoring. The numbers of points scored has historically risen in each season – the teams combined for 321 points in 2015, 369 points in 2016 and 374 points in 2018 – before falling off a cliff last season.
The total for tonight’s contest sits at just 313 points, which would have been unfathomable before last season. Team Giannis is a five-point underdog to Team LeBron.
This contest is a bit unpredictable, but there are still a few things we can take away by looking at past results.
- Target the starters
Eight of 10 starters last year saw at least 26 minutes of playing time, and LeBron James led the field with over 31 minutes of playing time. Just one player saw a comparable workload off the bench – Paul George played 26 minutes – and only three additional players played more than 20 minutes. The NBA decided to add two more roster spots for this year’s contest, with Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki both getting the nod on their farewell tours, which will make the amount of playing time even more sparse than in years past.
- Guards reign supreme
Even though scoring was down last season, the number of 3-point attempts continued to rise. It makes sense with the direction the league is going, but that places a premium on the ability to shoot in these exhibition contests. LeBron James led all scorers last year with 29 points, and 12 of those came from behind the 3-point line. Kevin Durant ranked second on Team LeBron with 19 points, and he attempted eight 3-pointers. Damian Lillard was tied for the scoring lead on Team Curry, and he shot 4-of-8 from 3-point range. If you’re going to lean on one attribute in this contest, the ability to make the 3-ball should be it.
Guards also tend to rack up more assists than big men, and the long rebounds off 3-pointers tends to neutralize the rebounding numbers. Nine of the 10 starters last year had at least six rebounds, and only LeBron grabbed more than eight.
- You can’t win if you don’t score
The correlation between fantasy points and actual scoring in exhibition contests is drastically higher than for regular contests. There are very few points given out for defensive statistics in this game – especially for blocks – and I already mentioned that rebounds are distributed pretty evenly. That makes targeting low-usage players a losing strategy. Constructing your roster to get more shot attempts than the rest of the field is definitely +EV.
Format
Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) for this game, but each site features a slightly different format.
DraftKings features its Showdown format, where you select one captain and five utility players. Your captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but his salary will also be 1.5x more expensive.
FanDuel’s format is a little more complicated. You have to choose only five players, but you have to select one captain (2x scoring), one star (1.5x scoring), one pro (1.2x scoring) and two utilities. Most players will likely choose to put their highest-salaried players in the premium roster positions, so fading some of the big names at captain should increase your chances for a unique lineup.
The Rosters
Team LeBron
Starters: LeBron James (captain), Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden
Reserves: Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons, LaMarcus Aldridge, Karl-Anthony Towns, Bradley Beal, Dwyane Wade
LeBron has gotten some criticism for the way he built teams around him in Miami and Cleveland, but it’s easy to see why this team is the favorite in tonight’s contest. He secured arguably the second-best player in the game with his first pick in Durant and then grabbed two of the best isolation scorers in the league in Irving and Harden. Leonard is also an excellent scorer, and his defense should be useful late in this contest.
As far as fantasy value, LeBron figures to play the most minutes for the second straight year. He currently has the shortest odds to win the MVP in this contest – something he’s already done three times – and fits the profile of the kind of player we want to target. That said, he is one of the most-expensive players across the industry.
Harden is the most-expensive player on both sites, but it’s hard not to like his skill set. He should have the ball in his hands quite a bit and obviously possesses the ability to fill it up from behind the 3-point arc. He led all players with 19 shot attempts (including 13 from 3-point range) in last year’s contest, but poor shooting numbers dragged down his fantasy numbers.
Irving is the cheapest Team LeBron starter on DraftKings, and he’s another player who fits this contest well. He ranked second on Team LeBron with 16 shot attempts last year, while his nine assists ranked first. He reportedly will play despite dealing with an injury, and that could result in slightly lower ownership.
Among the reserves, it’s hard not to like what Lillard brings to the table. He finished second on Team Curry last year with 14 shot attempts despite playing just 21 minutes. He had only two assists in last year’s contest but could definitely improve on that number this year. Team LeBron’s bench is a bit thin in the backcourt, particularly with PG options, which only increases his appeal.
Thompson is an intriguing target given his ability to fill it up from deep. That said, he’s going to need to get red-hot from 3-point range to make a real impact in this contest. He doesn’t really provide anything in terms of dunks and layups, so it’s going to be hard for him to match the rest of the players in this game in terms of raw points. I think Beal is a better target for just slightly more on DraftKings.
Aldridge is the easiest fade among the reserve options. He played just 4.5 minutes in this contest last season and could see a similar treatment tonight. He’s older than most of the other players, so getting a little rest before the home stretch of the regular season seems to be more important to him.
Davis is the biggest X-Factor for Team LeBron. He’s dealing with an injury, so it’s very possible that he’s limited in tonight’s contest. On the other hand, LeBron may very well want to show him how great his life could be playing next to him in Los Angeles. He has a wide range of outcomes but is ultimately too expensive for me to roll the dice on.
Last but not least is Wade. He’s super cheap on DraftKings at just $2,600, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see LeBron give his buddy a solid handful of minutes in his farewell tour. He allows you to roster a bunch of studs, which makes him an interesting punt play.
Team Giannis
Starters: Giannis Antetokounmpo (captain), Steph Curry, Joel Embiid, Paul George, Kemba Walker
Reserves: Khris Middleton, Nikola Jokic, Blake Griffin, Russell Westbrook, D’Angelo Russell, Nikola Vucevic, Kyle Lowry, Dirk Nowitzki
Giannis earned the nod as team captain this season and has put together a fabulous season. That said, I’m not entirely sure that his skill set fits this competition. He should have a solid handful of dunks and assists, but can he match the output of guys like LeBron and Harden without the 3-ball? He ultimately tallied 16 points, seven rebounds and two assists in last year’s contest, and that kind of production would make him a disappointment at his current salary. I’m willing to roll the dice and fade him.
For my money, Curry is a more appealing stud to target. He fared poorly as a captain last year but was plagued by shooting just 3-of-11 from 3-point range. He should shoot better in tonight’s contest and is way too cheap on FanDuel as just the 14th-most expensive player.
The rest of the starters hold appeal as well. Embiid is one of the highest-usage players in the league, so expect him to get his while he’s on the court. He finished third in scoring on Team Curry last season despite finishing just eighth on the team in minutes.
George has been phenomenal this season, garnering some legit MVP buzz. He’s used to sharing the court with a ball-dominant player, so he should find a way to make it work with a team of All-Stars.
Last but not least is Walker, who is the cheapest of all the Team Giannis starters on DraftKings. His skill set seems like a perfect fit for this contest, and he should also benefit from this game being played in Charlotte.
This team is very heavy on big men, which makes the reserve guards appealing targets. Westbrook stands out — despite the fact that neither captain seemed particularly interested in playing with him — but he’s very expensive across the industry. He should stuff the stat sheet while he’s on the floor, but he may not see as many minutes as he’s become accustomed to in these contests.
Russell is the more appealing value on DraftKings at just $3,800. That’s a ridiculously low salary for Russell, who has put together an excellent season for the Nets. He’s a high-volume player who can fill it up from deep, which should make him one of the most popular value plays of the day.
Lowry is the least appealing option of the trio. He’s had a down season and made the team on the back of his reputation and his team’s success. He’s also dealt with injuries, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him take it easy in tonight’s contest.
Among the reserve big men, I’m most interested in Blake Griffin. He has his flaws in real life, but his dunking ability makes him a perfect fit in an All-Star game. He should get plenty of opportunities in transition and has some skill behind the arc as well.
Nowitzki is the cheapest player in this game on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but it’s hard to envision him having as much of an impact as Wade. He’s played sparingly for most of the season, and I don’t expect that to change tonight. He will likely hoist up a couple 3s, wave for the fans and then spend the majority of the night cheering on his teammates from the bench.
