The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Merry Christmas ya filthy animals! Friday features a five-game slate starting at 12 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic is coming off a slightly disappointing performance in his first game of the season. He finished with 49.0 DraftKings points, resulting in a Plus/Minus of -0.81, but there’s plenty of reason for optimism moving forward. For starters, Doncic is coming off one of the most impressive seasons ever for a player at just 21 years old. He should continue to get better as he gets older, which is scary considering he averaged 55.4 DraftKings points per game last season.
Doncic will also continue to see an expanded workload with Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup. He posted a usage rate of 40.1% in his last game, which is more than a three-point increase compared to his mark of 36.8% last season. If he can shoot the ball better on Christmas – he was 0-6 from 3-point range in particular – he could be looking at a monster day. He’s a particularly nice value on DraftKings, where his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Value
Jeff Teague has the chance to play a significant role for the Celtics early in the season. Kemba Walker is still recovering from a knee injury, and Teague played 25.0 minutes off the bench in their first game vs. the Bucks. He was fantastic in that contest, finishing with 36.75 DraftKings points. He probably won’t be able to duplicate that performance, but he doesn’t need to at just $4,200 on DraftKings. That’s simply too cheap given his current role in the offense.
This game between the Celtics and Nets also stands out as one of the best games to target on Christmas. The 228.5-point total is the second-highest mark on the slate, and the Nets are listed as just three-point favorites.
Stocking Stuffers
Steph Curry struggled a bit on opening night vs. the Nets, but that was to be expected. He played just five games last season, so it’s not surprising that he was dealing with a bit of rust. Still, he managed to score 42.8 FanDuel points despite shooting just 33% from the field and 20% from 3-point range. He’s clearly underpriced at just $8,700 on FanDuel.
Kyrie Irving returns to Boston on Christmas, and who knows what he has in store for his former team. He looked fantastic playing with Kevin Durant for the first time on opening night, finishing with 35.8 FanDuel points in just 25.3 minutes. His average of 1.58 FanDuel points per minute from the contest is the best mark at the position, and he should play significantly more minutes in a competitive contest.
If you’re looking for a punt play, Bradley Wanamaker is a potential option at $3,100 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 20.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and PGs with a comparable salary and minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.45 (per the Trends tool).
Lump of Coal
Goran Dragic was phenomenal for the Heat during the playoffs last season, but expect the Heat to be cautious with him during the regular season. He played just 26 minutes in their first game, and it’s going to be tough for him to return value at his current salary with such a minimal workload.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Eric Bledsoe isn’t the highest-priced player at the position, but he stands out as one of the best options. He has a chance to put together a big season with the Pelicans. He’s the kind of guy who can stuff the stat sheet, but his production was kept in check by his role with the Bucks. He played nearly 34.5 minutes in his first game of the season and racked up 33.5 DraftKings points, and that feels like a conservative estimate vs. the Heat. Overall, he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
Duncan Robinson is a better real-life player than fantasy player, but he still has some appeal at his current price tag. He’s not going to provide a ton of production in the peripheral categories, but he has the ability to fill it up from behind in the 3-point line. He also saw 30.3 minutes on opening night, which is a solid number considering his price tag.
Stocking Stuffers
The Celtics have plenty of usage available at the moment. Not only is Walker hurt, but Gordon Hayward is now playing in Charlotte. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Jaylen Brown exploded for 52.75 DraftKings points on opening night. He posted a usage rate of 29.4% in that contest, which puts him on pace to shatter his previous career-high of 24.7%
Paul George was awesome for the Clippers in their first game of the season, posting a Plus/Minus of +8.83 on FanDuel. He’s due for some shooting regression moving forward – he shot an unsustainable 72.2% from the field and 62.5% from 3-point range – but he’s underpriced at just $7,600 on FanDuel. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.85 with a comparable salary.
Josh Hart stands out as a nice value option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 70%, and he’s currently projected for 26.2 minutes in our NBA Models. Hart is one of the best rebounding guards in the league, which gives him the ability to score more fantasy points than the typical player in this price range.
Lump of Coal
People are going to pay up for Caris LeVert following his huge performance on opening night, but I think that would be a mistake. Irving and Kevin Durant both saw limited workloads in a blowout, and LeVert was the primary beneficiary. He’s also due for some shooting regression, and he’s been priced up across the industry.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard is coming off a subpar performance in his first game of the year, but it was actually pretty encouraging for his prospects moving forward. He put up 28 shot attempts in played 34 minutes in that contest, both of which are excellent marks. Kawhi is always going to be a potential rest candidate, but we can probably trust him as long as he’s in the lineup.
He’s a strong target on Christmas at just $9,500 on FanDuel. That makes him -$1,500 cheaper than LeBron James, but he actually has higher median, ceiling, and floor projections. Kawhi does have a subpar matchup vs. the Nuggets – they played at the second-slowest pace last season – but he’s capable of finding success against anyone.
Value
Dorian Finney-Smith is never going to be a sexy DFS target, but he’s a strong value at the moment. He’s priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel, and he played 35.8 minutes in place of Porzingis in the Mavericks’ first game of the season. Finney-Smith has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.29 on FanDuel with a comparable salary and minute projection, so he has the potential to be one of the best values on the slate.
Stocking Stuffers
Josh Richardson played 36.2 minutes in his first game of the season, and his 11 field goal attempts were tied for the second-highest mark on the squad. He struggled from 3-point range in that contest, making just two of seven attempts, so he has the potential for a better performance on Christmas.
Michael Porter Jr. is talented enough to be a star in the NBA, and he put that talent on display in his first game of the season. He finished with 46.0 FanDuel points and posted a usage rate of 26.5%, and he’s seeing enough minutes to be a strong value at just $5,400 on FanDuel.
Brandon Ingram is coming off 60.3 FanDuel points on Wednesday, and what was most impressive was the way he scored his fantasy points. He’s always been someone who can score the basketball, but his subpar production in the peripheral categories has kept his fantasy value in check. That said, he racked up 11 assists and nine rebounds in his first game of the year, and he could be poised for a huge season if he continues to rack up stats in those categories.
Lump of Coal
It’s crazy to consider LeBron James unplayable in fantasy, but that might be the case at his current salary. He’s talked about managing his workload this season, and he’s coming off just 28.4 minutes on opening night. He unsurprisingly failed to return value in that contest, and he’s projected for a similar workload vs. the Mavericks. He’s simply too expensive if he’s not going to play 30+ minutes.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo looked as good as ever on opening night. He scored 57.75 DraftKings points and posted a usage rate of 42.3%, and he finished with 35 points and 13 rebounds. The biggest development was that he attempted eight 3-pointers in that contest and actually made three of them! Giannis is never going to be a dead-eye 3-point shooter – using him in that role would be a waste – but he’s going to be impossible to guard if he can keep defenses from sagging way off him.
He gets arguably the best matchup on the slate vs. the Warriors, who were demolished by the Nets on opening night. They are also still without Draymond Green, so they have no one on the roster who can guard him. The Bucks lead the slate with an implied team total of 121.25 points, and no other team owns a mark above 117.0.
Value
The Nuggets are a bit thinner at PF this season after losing Jerami Grant, which should be a good thing for Paul Millsap. He’s coming off 36.1 minutes vs. the Kings on Wednesday, albeit in a game that went to overtime. Still, that means he played more than 31 minutes during regulation, which is something that he did in just seven of 51 games last year.
Millsap is still capable of averaging nearly 1.00 fantasy points per minute, so he’s underpriced across the industry if he’s going to continue to play that much.
Stocking Stuffers
Maxi Kleber is another potential source of savings at the position, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%. He struggled in his first game of the year, finishing with just 15.75 DraftKings points, but he did play 26.9 minutes. He’s currently projected for a similar workload on Christmas, and players with comparable minute projections and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.21.
Jayson Tatum has a chance to join the truly elite fantasy players this season. He posted a usage rate of 39.2% in his first game of the season, resulting in 48.4 FanDuel points in a tough matchup vs. the Bucks. He increased his usage rate by +8.5% with Walker and Hayward off the court last season, so he should continue to gobble up usage the way I gobble up holiday ham.
Zion Williamson is a confirmed baller. The only question is how many minutes he will play this season. He was only needed for 29.6 on opening night, but the Pelicans secured a comfortable 14-point win over the Raptors. There’s a chance he could play a bit more vs. the Heat if the game is more competitive, which gives him an excellent ceiling at just $7,700 on FanDuel.
Lump of Coal
Kevin Durant looked like his old self in his first game for the Nets, but I think you should exercise some caution with him early in the season. He played just 24.9 minutes in that contest, and while that was partly due to the game being a blowout, it also makes sense for the Nets to ease him back into action. That was his first real basketball game in more than 18 months, so I wouldn’t expect to see him play much more than 30 minutes on Christmas. That makes him a tough play at $9,400 on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic put up the kind of stat line that he’s become famous for in his first game of the season. He racked up 29 points, 15 rebounds, and 14 assists, resulting in 76.75 DraftKings points. He played nearly 42 minutes in that contest, and his average of 1.88 DraftKings points per minute is the top mark from any player in their first game this season.
Now, he takes on a Clippers’ team that he had his way with during the postseason. He averaged 26.0 points, 15.2 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.7 blocks in seven playoff games vs. the Clippers, but it remains to be seen if he will have the same advantage this season. The Clippers brought in Serge Ibaka during the offseason, and he should be much more effective against guys like Jokic than Montrezl Harrell was.
What to do with Jokic on Christmas will ultimately come down to ownership for me personally. If he’s going to be chalk, I have no problem fading him. If he’s going to be one of the lower-owned studs, I’ll likely be overweight.
Value
James Wiseman is going to carry massive ownership at just $4,200 on FanDuel, but he 100% deserves to. He scored 31.2 FanDuel points over 24.3 minutes on opening night, yet his salary stayed exactly the same. He garnered tons of praise during Warriors’ practices, and he should continue to start in the absence of Green.
Stocking Stuffers
Harrell played much more than expected in his first game of the season. He logged 32.2 minutes off the bench and responded with 35.5 FanDuel points. Harrell has always been an excellent fantasy player on a per-minute basis, so he’s underpriced if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.
Bam Adebayo is one of the most well-rounded big men in the league, and he’s capable of filling up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. He’s priced in an interesting area on Christmas – cheaper than Jokic but more expensive than the values – which could keep his ownership down.
Steven Adams saw 30.6 minutes in his first game with the Pelicans, and he responded with 34.5 DraftKings points. He’s not the most exciting player to roster, but he’s a good bet to return value at just $5,900 on DraftKings.
Lump of Coal
Jarrett Allen is someone who could be a stud at the center position in the future, but he’s coming off less than 20 minutes of playing time in his first game this season. He’s priced at $6,400 on DraftKings, which is way too expensive given his current role. He’s not worth consideration until his price becomes more reasonable.
Pictured above: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers
Photo credit: Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images
