The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Please note that DraftKings’ five-game main slate locks Thursday at 6:30 p.m. ET, while FanDuel’s four-game slate locks at 7 p.m. ET. The 76ers-Magic game is the extra game on DraftKings.
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Point Guard
Stud
De’Aaron Fox has been a treat to watch on an otherwise forgettable Sacramento Kings franchise. His growth has continued this season, plus he’s a favorable play among a competitively priced point guard position on the evening card. Fox’s Projected Plus/Minus leads the position on FanDuel and he possesses a top-five Leverage Score.
Value
Elfrid Payton squeaked out a better rating than Fox as the top point guard play. As Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson have gotten comfortable with the New York Knicks, Payton’s scoring and value has risen.
Fast Break
James Harden is a shooting guard on FanDuel, but he can be rostered as a point guard on DraftKings and is the second-highest rated player on the slate, not just at PG and SG.
John Wall makes his season debut for the Houston Rockets. This will be our first look at Wall with Harden, and despite the two needing time to build chemistry, Wall has an appealing 87% Leverage Score and should have lower ownership than majority of the more familiar names at point guard.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Another night, another slate with James Harden dominating the pricing. He is $3,100 more expensive than the next shooting guard. His $11,500 price tag makes roster construction a lot more interesting, but deciding not to roster him continues to be a major question each night he plays. He is a top-five overall play at the position, with a top-five Leverage Score.
Value
Buddy Hield gets to see the new-look Rockets in one of the higher-paced games on the slate. Hield is projected to have the second-highest ownership at the position on FanDuel, but also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard by more than one point. Kings-Rockets also has the highest projected game total on the slate this evening. The only concern with Hield is teammate Tyrese Haliburton’s continued improvement as a rookie with each game played.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only other shooting guard besides Harden whose alpha scorer role is prominent. He leads the position in Pro Trends and trails only Harden in Fantasy Points Per Minute.
Devin Booker is the highest-rated shooting guard and looks to rebound off his worst performance of the season. Tuesday’s effort was also the first time his Usage Rate dropped below 30% since August 6, 2020 in the bubble.
Small Forward
Stud
Brandon Ingram is the lead dog at $9,400 on FanDuel, which is $2,900 more than OG Anunoby. Our models do not favor Ingram because of his up-and-down start to the 2020 season, despite playing an Oklahoma City team that is third highest on the slate in Projected Plus/Minus to starting small forwards.
Value
Stanley Johnson got an unexpected long look Tuesday in Toronto’s win over the Philadelphia 76ers. If head coach Nick Nurse decides to play his athletically gifted forward trio of Johnson, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam together again, there could be massive value had with Johnson at $3,700 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The easy pivot off Ingram is to Anunoby. His ability to pack the stat sheet on both ends of the court is an important key to maximizing value in DFS.
R.J. Barrett has been one of the welcomed surprises early in the 2020-21 season. He is shooting the ball better and his free throw shooting is up 16% (in a small sample size). He is the clear-cut top small forward option when using Justin Phan’s model, paces the position at Projected Plus/Minus and Points Per Salary, and is topped by Ingram in Usage Projection.
Danuel House projects to start at the three, with new additions Wall and DeMarcus Cousins joining the Rockets. He is a player to watch to see if he can find value despite being low on the food chain.
Power Forward
Stud
Christian Wood is listed at power forward on FanDuel, but as a center on DraftKings. His price also changes drastically depending on the site. He is a bottom play at the four on FanDuel, but a top-five center option on DraftKings.
Both sites did a solid job pricing the power forward position. Siakam, Julius Randle, and Zion Williamson will split ownership and allow each to maintain value. Siakam is the best option on FanDuel, while Williamson rates best of the trio on DraftKings.
Value
Bojan Bogdanovic is averaging three three-pointers made per game and more than 33 minutes per game through three games. A lot of threes in there. Bogdanovic is tied with Siakam as the best bargains at power forward.
Fast Break
Dario Saric made his season debut for the Suns Tuesday and spelled DeAndre Ayton. It will be interesting to see if this remains a theme with the Suns hurting at the center position and Jae Crowder and Cameron Johnson splitting minutes at the four. Saric did score 10 points in 14 minutes off the bench.
Marvin Bagley rates very well in a matchup against the Rockets, but he is averaging just short of four fouls per game and has already fouled out once this season.
Tobias Harris is a pivot off the top names on DraftKings, as he is at least $800 cheaper than the bigger plays.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert and Deandre Ayton are the highest-priced players on FanDuel and will be squaring off against each other. The only categories on FantasyLabs that Ayton rates better than Gobert in are Pace and Bargain Rating.
Value
Mitchell Robinson is making a killing picking up the scraps from his New York Knicks teammates. His Projected Plus/Minus nearly doubles the second-highest projection at the position. He is tied with Ayton for the second most Pro Trends.
Fast Break
Richaun Holmes has eliminated any concerns with Hassan Whiteside eating into his time and is a top-five Ceiling play.
Some clarification at who is going to play the five for Toronto would go a long way tonight. Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher both have sub-5% projected ownership and would be excellent pivots off of Robinson at similar price tags as they take on each other.
Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans stars Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson
Michael Reaves/Getty Images
