The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s slate features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young may take Killian Hayes’ soul tonight. Hayes has been a disappoint by rookie standards while Young has put up 50 FanDuel points in consecutive games to start the season. Young is tied with the second-best Leverage Score among point guards this evening.
With Kyrie Irving sitting out Monday’s matchup, Ja Morant is the highest-rated point guard on the slate. His 11 Pro trends are the most of any point guard playing tonight and his Projected Plus/Minus is the second-highest among all point guards.
Value
George Hill is a streaky shooter (24 points in 21 minutes Saturday) and enjoyed his first game with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lugeuntz Dort. OKC needs as many scoring threats as possible on a nightly basis.
Fast Break
Among the familiar point guard names on tonight’s small slate, Jamal Murray and Mike Conley project to have the lowest ownership.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the only shooting guard priced above $8,000 on FanDuel and one of two on DraftKings. Despite the price tag and low Bargain Rating, are you going to be the one to fade Harden? His price moved up $300 to $11,200 from his Saturday debut when he was rostered in well over 40% of lineups across varied FanDuel contests, including 90% of the $5,300 Thunderdome contest. Harden had the second highest GPP Grade on Saturday’s slate.
Value
Dillon Brooks is the top-rated player using Justin Phan’s model. Ja Morant’s promising sophomore start has bled to Brooks. His Projected Plus/Minus and Points Per Salary lead all players tonight, and his projected ownership is tied for the second highest this evening. No surprise here, but Nets-Grizzlies has the highest implied game point total using the Vegas model.
Fast Break
A cheap pivot off Brooks is Delon Wright. With Killian Hayes struggling to get acclimated to the NBA game, Wright played 42 minutes against the Cavaliers Saturday. If he continues to see over 30 minutes a night for the foreseeable future, he will be a DFS bargain. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the slate in Pro Trends with 14. He is the Alpha and Omega for the Thunder’s offense and should be in your player pool almost every slate.
Small Forward
Stud
Like Harden, LeBron James is priced well above his position counterparts tonight. He is a game-time decision with an ankle injury that has bothered him over the past two games. Injury or not, James has not delivered on his price tag in DFS this season. I wish I pumped him up (or another higher-priced option), but them’s the brakes.
Value
Michael Porter Jr. is $4,600 cheaper than James and has averaged three fewer FanDuel points per game. He projects to play 30-plus minutes tonight, a Usage Rate over 20% to start the season, and a Dud Rating below 20%. I will take that in a below $6,000 player on a small slate.
Fast Break
Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari are top leverage plays tonight against Detroit, with Galli rating as the best small forward (if he plays). Atlanta will have to keep the tempo moving for one or both to hit as Detroit represents the second slowest team in terms of pace of play on the slate.
Caris LaVert will start for the Nets tonight with Kevin Durant sitting out the second of Brooklyn’s back-to-back games this evening. Ownership will be higher since he is priced at $6,300 on FanDuel. The game total for Nets-Grizzlies is set at 230, according to the Vegas Model.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis or Christian Wood? Both make sense as a power forward anchor in lineups. Davis may be the lead dog if James is out tonight and has an easier assignment against Portland’s Robert Covington. Wood looked good with Harden, is not competing with DeMarcus Cousins for minutes yet because of COVID but faces a better defensive team in Denver. The best thing with both is that each can be paired with one of my favorite values on the slate.
Value
Jeff Green will go down as one of my favorite players. He has been the ultimate complementary player throughout his career and has a min-priced tonight. Again, no Durant and little competition behind him for minutes at the four. He is tied with another value play, Brandon Clarke, as the highest rated power forward option tonight.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma is another Laker who could see a bump in usage without LeBron on the court tonight. He has been solid off the bench to start the season. John Collins has not started the year as well as expected, but a get-right game is on deck against Detroit with Blake Griffin sitting out (rest).
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is $2,300 more expensive than Rudy Gobert. I would list them as 1-2 as center options despite the model’s projections this evening. On a small slate, sometimes playing the greatest hits is the best value, and I believe that rings true tonight at the center position.
Value
Mason Plumlee is producing similar FanDuel points as Jusuf Nurkic and Jonas Valanciunas and costs approximately $1,000 less than both. Mason Plumlee, starting center is a phrase I am still adjusting to when I add him to DFS lineups.
Fast Break
Valanciunas and Montrezl Harrell benefit from game scripts that involve better projected Plus/Minus allowed to the center position but are stuck playing teams that prefer a slower tempo. Valanciunas is a better leverage play, while Harrell is the better bargain. Beware of chasing Marc Gasol’s big game Sunday. He recorded a season-high usage rate at 15% and managed to flirt with a triple-double.
Pictured: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets.
Cato Cataldo/NBAE via Getty Images
