On tap for Thursday night is an exciting four-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. San Antonio Spurs – $11,100
Doncic’s salary on DraftKings peaked at $13,000 last season, and he is an excellent value at this reasonable price. The superstar opens the season at home against a Spurs team that ranked second in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency last season. At a massive 36.5%, Doncic ranked second in NBA usage last season. The Slovenian also ranked third in assist percentage (42.9%), helping Doncic score a godly 1.8 DraftKings PPM.
The superstar averaged a robust 66.4 DraftKings PPG against the Spurs last season in four matchups, and he should begin his season with a bang Thursday.
Top Value: Nickeil Alexander-Walker at Sacramento Kings – $4,100
Alexander-Walker handled a large role off the bench in Tuesday’s season opener vs. the Lakers. The guard logged 28.2 minutes and finished with 20.75 DraftKings points. Alexander-Walker almost played the entire fourth quarter instead of Mike Conley, and cutting back the veteran’s minutes may be the plan for the Timberwolves this season, with Conley at 37 years old. Nonetheless, Alexander-Walker should see 25-30 minutes tonight, giving him a solid chance to outperform this salary.
For the last 10 instances Alexander-Walker has eclipsed the 25-minute mark, he is amassing 25.5 DraftKings PPG.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Sacramento Kings – $8,800
After losing their season opener Tuesday vs. the Lakers, the Timberwolves and Edwards should be motivated to get a victory tonight vs. the Kings. After handling a 32.7% usage rate last season, Edwards’ usage remained elite Tuesday at 31.1%, and this matchup with Sacramento is expected to be a nail-biter, with Minnesota only favored by one point.
Edwards torched the Kings for over 58 DraftKings points in two of his three meetings with the team last season, and he was outstanding in spreads under three points, supplying 47.8 DraftKings PPG (18 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Bilal Coulibaly vs. Boston Celtics – $4,200
Coulibaly will open the season as the Wizards’ starting shooting guard, and he is underpriced for this starting role. As a starter, Coulibaly flashed solid upside to finish last season, with the 20-year-old generating 25.8 DraftKings PPG in his final five contests. Facing the Celtics is never ideal – they ranked second in defensive efficiency last season – but this game’s total is the highest on the slate (233 points). Plus, Washington is a 13.5-point underdog, and if this game gets out of hand, Coulibaly will likely see big minutes as a second-year player.
All in all, Coulibaly should outproduce his low salary and is one of the better punts for this four-game slate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Washington Wizards – $9,300
After shooting 28% from beyond the arc during the Celtics’ run to their 18th championship this past season, Tatum focused on improving his outside shot this offseason, and the forward’s shot was in immaculate form in Tuesday’s season opener vs. the Knicks. Tatum shot 14-of-18 from the field, including 8-for-11 on three-pointers, en route to a 66 DraftKings points performance vs. a New York defense that finished 11th in efficiency last season. Tatum’s shot release appears to be higher and quicker, and he finished with a 98% true shooting percentage in the blowout over the Knicks.
Now, Tatum will take on a Wizards team that led the league in pace and ranked 28th in defensive efficiency last season. The forward exposed Washington for 56.7 DraftKings PPG in three matchups last season, and Boston’s implied team total is the highest on the slate by a comfortable margin (125.5 points). There are blowout concerns with the Celtics favored by 13.5 points, but if Boston runs away with a victory tonight, it’s hard to imagine Tatum isn’t one of the main reasons. All things considered, the forward should have been priced over $10,000 tonight, and he is one of the best values on the board at only $9,300.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at Denver Nuggets – $4,800
The Thunder traded for Caruso this offseason for his elite defense, and the veteran should see over 30 minutes on a nightly basis as a starter for the championship contender. Caruso’s usage is never going to be high, but he can stuff the stat sheet in every category, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Last season with the Bulls, Caruso contributed 0.9 DraftKings PPM and 25.5 DraftKings PPG, which would be a great return at his current salary.
Caruso was priced from $5,500-6,000 on DraftKings for most of last season, and he is simply too cheap for his expected workload with the Thunder. In the ShotQuality projections in our NBA models, Caruso is the No. 1 value on the slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kyle Kuzma vs. Boston Celtics – $8,000
In this slate-high total vs. the Celtics, Kuzma is an appealing GPP play, as he should be low-owned given the matchup. Kuzma led the Wizards in usage last season, and his rate should be even higher this season, with Deni Avdija traded to Portland. With the forward off the court last season, Kuzma’s usage rose 2.2 percentage points to 32.4%, and he scored 1.4 DraftKings PPM, all of which are team highs for this situation, via the On/Off Tool.
The blowout concerns are real against this Celtics team, so don’t go overboard with Kuzma, but if he and the Wizards can keep this game close, Kuzma should have a huge performance and could be a game-changer in GPPs.
Top Value: Jeremy Sochan at Dallas Mavericks – $4,600
Sochan is a standout value play at this cheap price tag. The 21-year-old will begin the season as the Spurs’ starting power forward, and in the preseason, Sochan was terrific in this role, scoring 28.4 DraftKings PPG. The forward saw a 20.7% usage rate and supplied 1.2 DraftKings PPM, and while that production will be hard to maintain, Sochan is clearly underpriced for his potential.
The Baylor product recorded at least 27 DraftKings points in eight of his final 10 games last season, and in this 229-point total vs. the Mavericks – which is the second-highest on the slate – Sochan should have no issues exceeding five-times value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,000
Jokic is a steal at this price tag. This is the cheapest the center has been on DraftKings since January, and he will be at home tonight, where he scored 62.7 DraftKings PPG last season, which is a 2.9 increase from when he competed on the road. For the season, Jokic averaged a massive 1.8 DraftKings PPM.
The Thunder did give Jokic some trouble last season, with him only averaging 50.5 DraftKings PPG against the team in three meetings, but this time around, the Nuggets will be without Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who signed with the Magic this offseason. With the wing off the court last year, both Jokic’s usage and assist rates increased 2.5 percentage points. The three-time MVP should dominate on his home floor tonight, and he is the top stud to build around for this short slate.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford vs. San Antonio Spurs – $4,500
Gafford was a beast against the Spurs last season, and the center is an excellent bargain Thursday. In his last start vs. San Antonio as a Wizard in January, Gafford posted a double-double of 45.25 DraftKings points. Then, the big man continued to excel vs. the Spurs after being traded to Dallas, producing 29.5 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with the club.
San Antonio yielded the third-most points in the paint and fourth-most rebounds last season, and the Mavericks boast the second-highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (121 points). Since joining Dallas last season, Gafford has amassed 35.6 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or greater (10 games), via the Trends Tool.
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