The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
It’s no surprise to see Dame listed atop our projections tonight, given his typically lofty ceiling. One of a handful of guys in the Association capable of dropping 60 on any given night, he gets a juicy matchup with a run-and-gun Kings team that ranked ninth in pace (100.71) and dead last in defensive rating (116.5) a season ago.
Don’t be afraid to spend up for Lillard.
Top Value: Tyrese Maxey at New Orleans Pelicans – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
If you’ve been living under a rock for the last few months, then I suggest doing some research on Ben Simmons. Seriously, a quick Google search of his name will lead you to plenty of articles about his ongoing feud with Sixers management and pictures showing his less-than-engaged demeanor at recent team practices. Otherwise, let’s move on to Maxey, our top value on the slate.
The second-year man is expected to open the season as the team’s starting point guard, and there’s a lot to be excited about. As a rookie, Maxey’s per-36 averages were spectacular: 18.8 points, 4.6 dimes, 4.0 boards, 1.5 combined blocks/steals, and 1.2 triples while shooting respectably from the field and the charity stripe.
In eight starts (31.6 minutes per game), his averages were nearly identical to those per-36 numbers, highlighting just how productive he can be when given starter’s minutes.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Bradley Beal at Toronto Raptors – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
What more can we say about one of the league’s premier scorers and his ability to go nuclear in DFS lineups? Last season, Beal commanded a massive 33.1% usage rate even with the now-departed Russell Westbrook on the roster. Paired with Washington’s fastest-pasted offense (104.67), Beal was a fantasy favorite with an absurd ceiling in 2020-21.
Last season, he scored at least 30 points on 37 different occasions, including a 50-pointer and a new career-high 60 points that he dropped on the Sixers in early January. With no Brodie and a mediocre supporting cast, Beal could see his usage rate and production increase as he puts the Wiz on his shoulders yet again.
Top Value: Bones Hyland at Phoenix Suns – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland could be ready to make his bones in his NBA debut. The VCU product shined in college and impressed in the preseason, showing off his proficiency as a scorer, three-point shooter, and above-average rebounder for his position.
If his skill set still doesn’t have you itching to plug him into lineups, he was recently praised by his head coach and is expected to be part of the Nuggets’ rotation for as long as Jamal Murray (ACL) is out. His minimum salary on FanDuel and DraftKings should allow you to fit a couple of extra studs into your lineups.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Detroit Pistons – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
The biggest question for DeRozan is: “How productive can he be now that he’s with Chicago?” It’s a fair question to ask, considering he’ll be playing alongside offensive phenom Zach LaVine and sharing the court with Lonzo Ball and Nikola Vucevic, among others. DeRozan has scored at least 20 points in eight straight seasons, and he was the go-to option on offense for the Spurs and Raptors before landing in Chi-Town. His role is likely to be scaled back, but he is such a proficient scorer.
Top Value: Naji Marshall vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $5,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
With Zion Williamson (foot) out indefinitely, Marshall figures to slot into the Pels’ starting five tonight or at the very least play strong minutes off the bench. He closed last season as a starter and averaged 13.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists over the final eight games to cap off a solid rookie campaign. Marshall is a bit more affordable on FanDuel, but he’s a great value on DraftKings as well.
Marshall is only SF eligible on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Charlotte Hornets – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Sabonis took another step forward last season, finishing the campaign with career highs in points, assists, steals, blocks, and made three-pointers. To say he ended on a high note would be quite the understatement. Over the Pacers’ final 11 games, he averaged a monster triple-double of 21.5 points, 14.5 boards, and 10.5 dimes to go with 2.2 combined blocks/steals.
As a passing big man, he’s a DFS player’s dream as a guy who can contribute at a high level in multiple categories.
Top Value: Evan Mobley at Memphis Grizzlies – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The No. 3 pick in this year’s draft looks poised to make an impact as soon as he hits the court in tonight’s season opener. After an impressive preseason (8.4 points, 7.6 boards, 2.6 combined blocks/steals over five games), he’ll bring elite rebounding and shot-blocking to a Cavs team in need of both. Though playing alongside another big who excels in those areas in Jarrett Allen, Mobley should have no problem racking up fantasy points at a high clip.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Houston Rockets – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
After two seasons mired in injury and family tragedy, KAT will look to stay healthy and help lead his team to the playoffs. Despite appearing in just 85 games over the last two seasons, Towns has been a beast when on the court, averaging 25.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.0 combined blocks/steals, and 2.8 triples in that span.
His ceiling is even higher tonight against the Rockets after both teams finished bottom-five in defensive rating and Minnesota finished fifth in pace (101.96) a season ago. Tonight’s clash between the Rockets and Wolves comes in with a whopping 230 over/under, second-highest on the slate behind only Portland/Sacramento.
Note: we’re working on an issue with KAT’s projection.
Top Value: Mo Bamba at San Antonio Spurs – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Bamba is a guy our models like as a high Pts/Sal and Plus/Minus guy on this evening’s slate, and it’s not hard to imagine why. The Texas product averaged an impressive 11.8 points, 9.3 boards, and 2.1 swats across the Magic’s final 12 games of last season, and he was a menace in the paint during preseason play, leading all players in blocks while posting three games with at least four of them.
Bamba can also step out and nail triples as if the double-doubles and swats weren’t appealing enough already. Mo Bamba, Mo fantasy points.
