The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Phoenix Suns – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
The last time Luka Doncic played in Phoenix was Game 7 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals, where the Mavericks won by 33 points. Doncic finished that game with 35 points and 10 rebounds while shooting 63.2% from the field. He has led the Mavericks in points, rebounds, and assists the last two seasons while also leading the league with a 37.3% usage rate. The price tag is lofty on both sites but very deserved for the upside Doncic provides.
In the offseason, the Mavericks added a few pieces with centers Christian Wood and JaVale McGee, but Doncic is poised for another season of having the ball in his hands every possession. The Mavericks have the second-lowest implied total on the slate at 106 points, but with a player like Doncic, that doesn’t seem to matter.
He has the second-highest projected ceiling tonight and is worth getting exposure to in tournaments.
Top Value: Tre Jones vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,200 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
After spending much of his career not playing or coming off the bench, Tre Jones will be thrust into the starting lineup now that Dejounte Murray has left town. We have seen some of his upside last season when Jones started for the Spurs. In 11 starts, Jones averaged 13.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game. He had three double-doubles with one near triple-double in those starts, as he is known for his facilitating.
The Spurs are not going to win many games this season, but they are only 1.5-point home underdogs against the Hornets tonight. Last season the Hornets ranked fifth in pace and 22nd in defensive rating. This is a pretty juicy matchup for Jones. With his salary, Jones is preferred on DraftKings, where he has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position.
Pairing him with our shooting guard value is a great mini-game stack.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Dallas Mavericks – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
After a disappointing end to their playoff run last season, the Suns will look for revenge on the Mavericks at home in their season opener. Devin Booker continues to be option No. 1 for this Suns offense as he finished with a career-high in points, rebounds, and field goal attempts shooting over 20 times per game. With an aging Chris Paul becoming strictly a pass-first point guard, Booker’s usage rate should continue to skyrocket this season.
In the two preseason games that Booker played, he averaged 21 points and a 34.4% usage rate while only playing 26.5 minutes per game. Entering the prime of his career, Booker has averaged over 26.1 points per game in his last five seasons. Most of his fantasy production comes from scoring points, but it is nice to see an increase in his rebounding numbers lately.
Booker’s ceiling is always high because he is such a pure scorer.
Top Value: Terry Rozier at San Antonio Spurs – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
The player with the highest Plus/Minus on FanDuel is Hornets guard Terry Rozier. Looking at his salary on both sites, he isn’t much of a “value,” but Rozier is popping everywhere in our Tournament Model tonight. With LaMelo Ball out due to injury, Rozier will have the ball in his hands early and often running this Hornets offense. Using our On/Off Tool, Rozier’s usage rate increased by 2% last season when Ball was not on the floor.
Rozier averaged a career-high 4.5 assists per game last season, but we can expect those numbers to climb with Ball out of the lineup. He has shown he can be a scoring point guard, as he has averaged 18 or more points per game since coming to the Hornets. Not only is Ball out, but so is Miles Bridges for the foreseeable future.
The Spurs ranked sixth in pace last season, so this could be sneaky for a very fast-paced game.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Miami Heat – $8,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
In his first season with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan averaged a career-high 27.9 points per game. He once again led the league in mid-range field goal attempts and makes. DeRozan also averaged 15 drives per game last season and shot over 50% from the field. The way he scores so efficiently without too many 3-point attempts is fun to watch. Leave the deep balls to Zach LaVine and let DeRozan continue to work underneath.
A matchup against the Heat isn’t enticing. They ranked 28th in pace and fourth in defensive rating last season. However, DeRozan still averaged 24 points and five rebounds in three games against the Heat. If he can pick up where he left off, DeRozan is poised for another great season. With so many other studs on this slate, DeRozan’s ownership will likely be very low, which makes him a really strong tournament option.
Top Value: Kelly Oubre at San Antonio Spurs – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Looking to another Hornets value play at the small forward position with Kelly Oubre. According to our On/Off Tool, Oubre benefits the most with a 3.4% usage bump with Ball and Bridges not on the floor. In his first season with the Hornets last year, Oubre mostly came off the bench, but he still averaged over 15 points per game for the fourth-straight season. He also posted a career-high 2.5 made 3-pointers per game.
Not only did the Spurs play fast last year, but they weren’t a very strong defensive team either. With the loss of Murray, who led the league in steals, they will be even worse. As you can tell, this is a game worth targeting on both sides, and this game stack doesn’t break the bank. Oubre fills a small forward position that is always tough to navigate.
Our models have Oubre projected for 32 minutes tonight, which makes him a great value play.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
If the Nets can stay healthy, they have a great chance to make a deep playoff run this season. The main reason why is Kevin Durant still looks so smooth. After some typical off-season drama, Durant looked incredible during his short preseason run. He may have only played 55 games last year, but Durant averaged 29.9 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field for the ninth-straight season. He is a unicorn.
Being priced at $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Durant may not come across as one of the best values among the studs, but his ceiling is so high. Even with playing alongside Ben Simmons (finally) and Kyrie Irving, Durant can still have a ceiling game. Shooters Joe Harris and Seth Curry are out tonight, which will force even more action Durant’s way. Don’t forget about Durant when building lineups, his ceiling is worth it.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Dallas Mavericks – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Cameron Johnson is another player who has above a double-digit projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a 92% Bargain Rating at his cheap $4,300 salary. With Jae Crowder gone, Johnson will get into the starting lineup, which will secure his minutes moving forward. He only played 26.2 minutes last season but averaged a career-high 12.5 points per game while shooting a ridiculous 42.5% from downtown.
Now that Johnson is projected for over 30 minutes, he is going to be an incredible value, as his salary is around where he was last season. He is a cheap way to get exposure to this game if you decide to forgo Doncic and Booker. The Mavericks were pretty strong guarding the 3-point line last season, but Johnson has made at least one 3-pointer against them in 15-straight games. Expect not only for Johnson to play more, but look for his shot more as well.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Utah Jazz – $10,300 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Normally when you see a matchup for a center against the Utah Jazz, you stop in your tracks. However, with Rudy Gobert gone to Minnesota, the Jazz will have Kelly Olynyk and rookie Walker Kessler trying to stop Nikola Jokic. Good luck. Last season Jokic had a career and league-high 1.84 DraftKings points per minute. He has the highest ceiling by far of anyone on this slate and is a lock for cash games, especially on DraftKings.
The Nuggets do get Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury, which may take some usage away from Jokic, but not enough to fade him in this matchup. They will likely ease both players back and feed Jokic the ball as much as possible. Last season the Nuggets led the league in post-up points and ranked second in post-up possessions. Against this weak Jazz frontcourt, expect Jokic to feast tonight.
Top Value: Bam Adebayo vs. Chicago Bulls – $6,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
The player with the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings tonight is Heat center Bam Adebayo. Seriously, what is with this broken $6,400 salary? It makes sense to get away from Adebayo on FanDuel, but he is an incredible play on DraftKings with this price tag. Under Head Coach Erik Spoelstra, the Heat have won seven-straight season openers when they have been favored. If we expect the Heat to win this game, Adebayo is a big reason why.
Adebayo averaged a double-double last year with a career-high 19.1 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. He continues to be heavily involved in this offense alongside Jimmy Butler. The Bulls ranked 22nd in points allowed in the paint last season and 23rd in defensive rating. The dual eligibility helps Adebayo on FanDuel, but he is simply way too cheap on DraftKings, making him one of the best plays on the slate.
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