We have a nice, juicy NBA slate tonight, and there are plenty of stars and scrubs to target. Using the Trends tool, I’ve looked at two simple filters — monthly salary change and projected minutes — to find a few guys you can target and avoid tonight.
Since daily fantasy sports are an ever-changing market, how a player’s salary changes is massively important. Much like the stock market, you generally want to buy low and sell high, and our historical data backs that up.
Buy, Buy, Buy
There are a few reasons a player’s salary will drop. One is that they suck. We want to avoid those guys. Another is that they are in an unfavorable matchup. I don’t care as much about that.
An easy way to find guys whose salary drop is generally unwarranted, or just too extreme, is to look at their projected minutes.
Overall, players whose salary has dropped by $1,000 or more in the past month on DraftKings have a Plus/Minus of +1.29, which is a great start. Some of those fellas are dropping for good reason, though, so we want to get rid of them. Here is the breakdown by minute projections.
- 0-9 minutes: -2.26 Plus/Minus, 29% Consistency (avoid these guys)
- 10-19 minutes: -0.07 Plus/Minus, 45% Consistency
- 20-29 minutes: +2.10 Plus/Minus, 57% Consistency
- 30+ minutes: +3.03 Plus/Minus, 62% Consistency
Role players expected to get 25 minutes or so aren’t bad bets, but guys who are expected to be out there for a while really out-perform their salary-based expectations. There are two such fits tonight.
Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,500)
The second-year Mavericks guard has struggled a bit this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of nearly -6.0. A couple of real duds in which he’s posted just 11.25 and 11.75 DraftKings points definitely bring down that average, though.
At just $5,500, Smith is a bargain given that we’re expecting him to play just over 30 minutes tonight. The Mavs are at Utah, which is always a tough task for opposing offenses, but Smith is worth playing given his -$1,500 salary change since the start of the season.
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Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,800)
The Timberwolves are definitely a sore spot for DFS players this season, but they are in a great spot tonight vs. the Lakers. With an over/under of nearly 240, Vegas is expecting a ton of points to be scored. With Towns projected to play more than 35 minutes, he should get a fair share of those.
At $8,800, Towns’ salary has fallen by an even $1,000 since the beginning of the year. Towns laid an egg in his first game of the season vs. the Spurs and immediately saw his salary drop from $9,800 to $9,100, but he’s since posted a couple of 60-plus point performances.
The sample size drops from nearly 1,500 players to just 29, but when targeting players in this spot in games with an over/under of 230 or higher, the Plus/Minus jumps to nearly +5.0.
Sell, Sell, Sell
On the flipside, you want to avoid players whose salary has risen a bunch. This is especially true when they aren’t expected play many minutes.
Here are the minute projection breakdowns for guys whose salary has risen by $1,000 on DraftKings.
- 0-9 minutes: -2.58 Plus/Minus, 36% Consistency
- 10-19 minutes: -3.61 Plus/Minus, 30% Consistency
- 20-29 minutes: -0.49 Plus/Minus, 45% Consistency
- 30+ minutes: +0.34 Plus/Minus, 50% Consistency
As you can see, guys who are playing a ton of minutes can still live up to their newfound salaries. However, the other players have not. Interestingly enough, the players projected to play less than 10 minutes have outperformed that 10-19 minute group in terms of Plus/Minus. Our fade target for this evening just happens to lie in that 10-19 minute range, too.
Tyus Jones ($4,900)
With so much crazy stuff going on with the Timberwolves as of late, Jones has had some opportunities to ball. Just a few games ago, he played 40 minutes vs. the Warriors. With that came a big bump in salary, but he’s not going to see the playing time tonight unless we have a burning money GIF scenario.
We project he will play less than 16 minutes vs. the Lakers this evening. Although he’s in that juicy over/under spot, he’s not going to play enough to reap the benefits. With his salary jump of $1,400 since the start of the year, he’s a prime fade candidate.
