Wednesday’s main slate on DraftKings includes the first 11 games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball vs. Miami Heat – $10,300
Ball has been sensational with Miles Bridges (knee) out for the last three, producing 67.7 FPTS per game. On top of Bridges, Grant Williams (knee) and Tre Mann (back) are both out for the Hornets and with Bridges, Williams, and Mann off the court this season, Ball’s usage has jumped 7.9 percentage points to 47.7%, and his assist percentage has increased 9.1 percentage points to 50%. With these jaw-dropping rates, Ball has supplied 1.7 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Miami’s defense has been weaker than previous seasons, with them ranking 14th in defensive efficiency, and the Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back. Miami should have no answers for Ball on his home floo,r and he should have another massive performance Wednesday.
Top Value: Malik Monk at Minnesota Timberwolves – $5,400
Monk has remained one of the best bench players in the NBA this season, scoring 23.4 DraftKings points in 25.1 minutes per game. The Kings will be without DeMar DeRozan (back) tonight, and as a result, Monk should see a few extra minutes and approach 30 minutes off the bench. With DeRozan off the court this season, Monk has ranked second on the Kings in usage (23.4%).
The guard has the potential for over 30 DraftKings points against this Timberwolves team that is coming off an overtime loss to the Rockets last night and is one of the best cheap guards available Wednesday.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaden Ivey at Memphis Grizzlies – $7,500
With Cade Cunningham (hip) inactive Monday, Ivey put the team Pistons on his back and scored 44.75 DraftKings points across 36.2 minutes vs. the Raptors, including the game-winning basket at the buzzer. Cunningham is doubtful to play tonight and Ivey is too cheap for this situation.
With Cunningham off the court this season, Ivey’s usage has risen 5.3 percentage points to 32.1%, and his assist rate has skyrocketed 11.3 percentage points to 33.6%, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM for Ivey via the On/Off Tool. The Grizzlies rank fourth in defensive efficiency, but they lead the league in pace, and Ivey has 40 DraftKings point upside in this up-tempo matchup.
Top Value: Malik Beasley at Memphis Grizzlies – $5,600
Beasley is also a strong target from the Pistons with Cunningham doubtful. Beasley has made two starts for Cunningham this season. He has supplied 27.4 DraftKings points in 31.9 minutes per game with that starting job. With Cunningham off the floor, Beasley’s usage has risen 2.4 percentage points to 24.4%, and he has provided 0.9 DraftKings PPM.
Playing up in pace vs. the Grizzlies is ideal for Beasley, and he should surpass 5x value tonight.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Brandon Miller vs. Miami Heat – $7,400
While Ball has been the star of the show, Miller has also been outstanding for the depleted Hornets, scoring 51.3 DraftKings PPG in his last four starts. With Bridges, Mann, and Williams off the floor this season, Miller’s usage has increased 3.1 percentage points to 30.3%, which ranks second only to Ball for this situation.
Miller should have been priced over $8,000 tonight and he is a strong target for all formats at this reasonable price tag.
Top Value: Deni Avdija at Indiana Pacers – $5,500
Avdija should get the spot start tonight with Jerami Grant (knee) doubtful. Plus, Robert Williams (concussion) and Donovan Clingan (knee) are out, leaving the Blazers very thin. Avdija should see over 30 minutes in this situation, and with Grant, Williams, and Clingan off the court this season, Avdija has been great with 1.23 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his usage and assist rates rising 1.1 and 5.7 percentage points, respectively.
Avdija was a terrific fantasy asset as a starter in Washington last season, and he is a steal at this affordable salary. In our ShotQuality projections, Avdija is a top-five value on the slate, and he has a ceiling of over 40 DraftKings points.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Franz Wagner vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,700
With Paolo Banchero (oblique) sidelined for the last 14 games, Wagner has been playing at an All-Star level, producing 47.4 DraftKings PPG. In these contests, the forward has led the Magic with a 32.1% usage rate and 33.1% assist rate. Wagner is amassing 1.4 DraftKings PPM with Banchero off the floor this season, and Wagner’s impressive run should continue in this elite spot vs. the Bulls.
Chicago ranks third in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency and they are playing their second game in two nights. The Magic carry the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (118 points,) and Wagner’s ceiling is the second-highest on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Jake LaRiva vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,500
With Ja Morant (knee) sidelined, LaRiva is a compelling punt play. In the nine games Morant has missed this season, LaRiva has produced 26.2 DraftKings points in 23.3 minutes off the bench. The wing is averaging 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Morant off the court this season, and our ShotQuality projections are forecasting LaRiva for 22 minutes on Wednesday, giving him an excellent chance to outperform his cheap salary.
For the 15 instances LaRiva has cracked the 20-minute mark this season, the veteran is supplying 24.1 DraftKings PPG.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $10,800
Wembanyama posted 60 DraftKings points against the Lakers two weeks ago and is a great pay-up option for Wednesday’s rematch with Los Angeles. The center is scoring 1.6 DraftKings PPM with a 32.6% usage rate this season, and the Spurs will be at home, which is a huge boost for Wembanyama, who is scoring 5.4 DraftKings PPG more at home than on the road for his career, via the Trends Tool.
In this prime matchup vs. the Lakers, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency and are giving up the third-most points in the paint, Wembanyama should score nothing less than 60 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Jabari Smith Jr. at Philadelphia 76ers – $4,700
Smith Jr. is one of the best center targets on the slate at this cheap salary. The 21-year-old posted 37.75 DraftKings points in last night’s win over the Timberwolves, and Smith Jr. has now tallied at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts.
Smith Jr. is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM this seaso,n and this is a plus matchup, with the 76ers missing Joel Embiid (knee). Philadelphia’s defensive rating has dipped to 117.0 with the former MVP off the court, and Smith Jr. should have no issues exceeding 5x value in this appealing spot.
