The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant at San Antonio Spurs – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
After several mediocre games in a row, Ja Morant bounced back on Monday with a near triple-double. He had 30 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds while scoring 60 DraftKings points. Through 10 games, Morant is averaging a career-high 28.5 points per game as the Grizzlies draw a great matchup against the Spurs tonight.
The Grizzlies are 6.5-point road favorites with a 120.25 implied total, which is the second-highest on the slate. Playing against the Spurs is quickly becoming the best fantasy environment for an opposing player. They play at the third-fastest Pace and have the worst Defensive Rating in the league. Morant ranks second in drives per game as the Spurs rank 29th in points allowed in the paint.
This is a great spot to target the aggressive Ja Morant.
Top Value: Jevon Carter at Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
With Jrue Holiday listed as doubtful to play, Bucks point guard Jevon Carter is one of the better value plays on the slate. Being in the starting lineup has dropped Carter’s usage rate this season to a career-low 11.3%. However, now that Holiday is likely out along with Khris Middleton, Carter will be given a bigger role in this offense.
Carter looks exceptional on FanDuel, where he has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five-straight games and has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the guard position tonight. Most of his damage is done on the defensive end, as Carter is a fantastic defender. Over the last four games, Carter is averaging 2.0 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Prioritize Carter on FanDuel, where his defensive stats get a bigger boost.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $10,200 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Continuing to play without Kawhi Leonard is always going to make Paul George a top choice. Getting a matchup against the Lakers, who play at the league’s fastest Pace (103.77) entering tonight’s games, makes George look even better. This Lakers team at 2-8 is in troubled waters, and George and the Clippers can ride their momentum of winning four of their last five games in the Battle of LA.
With a 30.9% usage rate, George is averaging 25 points per game while shooting a career-high 47.6% from the field. He is another player who looks better on FanDuel with a $9,400 salary and a 93% Bargain Rating. This matchup only has a 220.5 total, but expect George to do most of the heavy lifting for the Clippers in this up-tempo spot.
Top Value: Malik Monk vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Malik Monk is questionable to play tonight, but if he is a go, Monk is one of the best value guards on the slate. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard the closer we get to lock on his status. Coming off the bench, Monk has the second-highest usage rate on the team at 24.6%. Despite only playing 21 minutes per game, Monk is averaging 12 points while getting up nearly double-digit field goal attempts a night.
The Cavaliers present a very tough matchup as they rank second in Defensive Rating allowing only 105.4 points per game. Luckily the tough matchup is baked into Monk’s salary as he is still rating out as a great value. Make sure Monk is good to go, but he is a great salary saver in a stars and scrubs lineup build.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. New York Knicks – $11,000 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Kevin Durant‘s salary has sky-rocketed over the past few games as he has now reached $11,000 or higher on both DraftKings and FanDuel. It feels deserving playing without Kyrie Irving and a limited Ben Simmons, but with such a large slate, Durant’s sticker-shock price tag will most certainly keep his ownership in check.
The Nets are three-point home favorites against the Knicks in the Battle of New York. Durant has gone nuclear on the Knicks in his last two games. He has one triple-double and one 53-point performance. At low ownership, taking a chance on a ceiling performance on Durant in tournaments could be what it takes to bring a lineup to the top.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale vs. New York Knicks – $5,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Sticking with the Nets, Royce O’Neale is one of the better value plays on the slate and is a cheap way to get exposure to this Nets and Knicks rivalry. In his first season with the Nets, O’Neale is averaging a career-high 10.9 points per game while shooting 41.6% from behind the arc. With 62.2% of his field goal attempts coming from downtown, O’Neale is a perfect floor spacer for this Nets team, especially when Ben Simmons is healthy.
O’Neale is third on the Nets in minutes playing a career-high 36.6 per game. He has a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his 11 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The salary has come up significantly since opening night, but O’Neale has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus tonight on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Oklahoma City Thunder – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
It will be pretty difficult to fade Giannis Antetokounmpo with Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton both likely not playing. Giannis ranks third in points, third in rebounds, second in usage rate, and first in points in the paint. He is a freight train whenever he has the ball in his hands and when using our On/Off Tool, his usage rate and DraftKings Plus/Minus rises significantly when Holiday and Middleton are not on the floor.
The Bucks are seven-point road favorites even without Holiday and Middleton expected to play. The Thunder rank sixth in Pace as Giannis leads all players in transition points per game. He has the highest ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our Tournament Model and will be a core piece to cash game lineups tonight.
Editor’s note: Giannis was ruled out after this article was published.
Top Value: Brandon Clarke at San Antonio Spurs – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Similar to Monk, Brandon Clarke is another value play where we have to monitor the news. Steven Adams is considered questionable with an ankle injury after missing the last game. In his absence, Clarke had a near double-double with 10 points and eight rebounds while playing a season-high 31 minutes. Even in the two games that Adams has played before that, Clarke still reached double-digits scoring, making him a strong value play tonight.
The Spurs are allowing 57.1 points per game in the paint this season, which should benefit Clarke, who has only taken five 3-pointers all season. Hopefully, we will get the news on Adams in time to make adjustments if he is in, but Clarke could make for a strong value play either way.
However, having Adams out is a major boost to his playing time.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Indiana Pacers – $11,600 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
The back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic has been a little boom or bust this season now that the Nuggets are fully healthy with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. However, he is still a very strong ceiling candidate as he leads the league with three triple-doubles. With Giannis being power forward and center eligible on DraftKings, Jokic may see a decrease in ownership but expect a much higher ownership on FanDuel.
The Nuggets have the highest implied total on the slate at 120.5 points, as this game has a 235.5 total. They have won seven of their last nine games as Jokic continues to lead the team in points, rebounds, and assists while averaging a near triple-double. Like George, Jokic is another way to get different on this slate from Giannis.
Top Value: Myles Turner vs. Denver Nuggets – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
In the same game, Myles Turner is rating out extremely well from a value perspective for the Pacers. Turner has a great price on DraftKings and has dual eligibility on FanDuel. He finally erupted last game, playing a season-high 37 minutes. Turner finished with 37 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 61.1% from the field, 57.1% from behind the arc, and a perfect 11-for-11 from the charity stripe.
Playing against Jokic may get Turner into foul trouble, but if he can stay on the floor, he is going to crush this price tag. If he can stay healthy, Turner will likely lead the league in blocks again this season. He is already averaging 3.4 per game, which only boosts his ceiling at these salaries on both sites.
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