The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $11,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
After a one-game absence related to a hip injury, Curry returned Sunday to post an uncharacteristic dud of just 12 points and eight dimes. In six games prior? Those numbers are a bit better.
In the six games prior to his absence, Curry averaged a whopping 36.0 points, 7.0 dimes, 5.5 rebounds, 2.2 steals, and 7.0 made threes for nearly 60 fantasy points per contest. The over/under on tonight’s slate sits at a modest 218.5.
Top Value: Cory Joseph at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
With Killian Hayes (thumb) out for at least one more game, Joseph should see plenty of minutes yet again. Over his last four games (including starts in each of the Pistons’ last two), Joseph has averaged 10.0 points, 5.8 dimes, 3.3 boards, and 1.8 swipes.
He’s averaged better than 25 fantasy points per game in the aforementioned span, and he gets the benefit of a positive Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s projected for at least a +7.0 Plus/Minus and 6.3 Points/Salary on both sites and makes one of the best salary-saving options on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Murray has logged two triple-doubles and missed one by just one assist in three of his last four games. In that span, he’s scored at least 57 fantasy points thrice. He’s got three triple-doubles on the season and has approached that mark at least half a dozen times more.
The young guard is emerging as a star and a DFS darling for his ability to stuff the stat sheet on a regular basis. Tonight’s 220.5 over/under is the third-highest on the slate, and Murray gets the benefit of a positive Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s a nice pivot from more popular options like Steph Curry, James Harden, or Russell Westbrook.
Note: Murray is eligible at PG on DraftKings and PG/SG on FanDuel
Top Value: R.J. Hampton vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Cole Anthony will miss his third straight game due to an ankle injury, and Garry Harris is questionable due to a hand injury. Meanwhile, Hampton is in the midst of his best stretch of the season, having averaged 16.5 points, 7.0 assists, 6.5 rebounds, 3.0 triples, and 1.5 steals across 29.5 minutes.
Tonight’s matchup presents a pace-up spot for the Magic against a Hornets team ranked third in pace. Both teams are ranked in the bottom-10 in defensive rating, meaning there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around for both teams.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Brooklyn Nets – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Tatum is scorching hot right now, as he’s scored at least 30 points in four straight games, averaging 30.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 4.0 threes, and 2.1 combined blocks/steals in that span.
It’s no surprise that Boston has is on a three-game win streak thanks to Tatum’s tremendous play, and the Celtics have won their last three by an average of 15.3 points. Boston will need Tatum to be superhuman once again to overcome the NBA’s leading scorer in Kevin Durant (28.5 PPG) and a former scoring champ in James Harden (20.8 PPG).
The Celtics are just 1.5-point favorites in what’s sure to be a fantastic matchup. Pay up for Tatum here.
Top Value: Cody Martin at Orlando Magic – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
On the season, the third-year wing has averaged career highs in minutes (24.8), points (7.8), rebounds (4.4), combined blocks/steals (1.8), and triples (0.9), but his price remains quite low, particularly on DraftKings, where his value is highest.
Martin has scored at least 27 fantasy points in two of his last three games and three of his last five. He’ll look to keep the good times rollin’ tonight against a Magic team ranked 29th in defensive rating.
Note: Martin is eligible at SG/SF on DraftKings and SG on FanDuel
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Boston Celtics – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo has a higher projected ceiling than Durant, though Milwaukee’s matchup with the Pistons has the Bucks favored by 14.5, the largest spread on the slate. That could lead to some downtime for the reigning Finals MVP. Instead, we’ll pivot to Durant, whose Nets are 1.5-point underdogs to the Celtics.
Durant is the NBA’s leading scorer, and he’ll need to be on his game facing a Celtics squad on a three-game winning streak thanks to Jayson Tatum’s blistering offense.
Top Value: Jarred Vanderbilt vs. Miami Heat – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Vandy has started the last seven games for Minnesota, though he’s been on quite a roll over his last three contests. In that span, he’s averaged nine points, 11 rebounds, two assists, and three combined blocks/steals while scoring at least 28 fantasy points in every contest.
His price remains affordable on both sites, especially given his recent production on both ends of the court. He’s particularly valuable thanks to his contributions in the prized defensive categories.
Center
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert at Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Oklahoma City has yielded the eighth-most fantasy points, third-most blocks, and third-most rebounds to opposing centers this season. The Thunder are one of the best matchups for opposing bigs, and Gobert naturally has a high ceiling tonight.
As if his career-high 14.9 rebounds and propensity for blocks wasn’t enticing enough, Gobert is coming off a 23/13 game with five swats tying a season-best in points, and the first time all season he’s scored at least 20 in back-to-back contests. His price is quite friendly, given his tremendous upside.
Top Value: Hassan Whiteside at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
If Gobert didn’t do it for you, let’s double down on the Jazz with his highly-efficient backup. Just like Gobert listed above him, Whiteside gets the benefit of a highly-favorable matchup with the Thunder. Unlike Gobert, however, Whiteside may see a bump in minutes tonight if the game gets out of hand.
Utah is favored by 12.5 points, the second-highest spread of the slate behind only Milwaukee’s 14.5 points over Detroit. If the Jazz are up big late, Whiteside could see some additional playing time. Any boost in minutes would be huge for the veteran center, as he’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute this season, eighth-highest and sixth-highest among centers on those slates, respectively.
