For tonight’s Thanksgiving Eve slate, there are 14 games on the calendar. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,700 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Especially at less than $10K on DraftKings, Gilgeous-Alexander is an elite target tonight. The guard is facing an average Bulls defense that ranks 16th in efficiency, and Jalen Williams (hip) will be out for the Thunder.
The 22-year-old has seen a healthy 22% usage rate this season, and with Williams off the floor, Gilgeous-Alexander’s already huge usage rate has jumped a team-high 8.4 percentage points to a monstrous 42.1%, via the On/Off Tool.
Additionally, his assist rate has increased by 4.9 percentage points. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a godly 1.84 DraftKings PPM in the 163 minutes he has played without Williams this season and should explode tonight.
Top Value: Alex Caruso at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Opposite of Gilgeous-Alexander, Caruso is a great sleeper for GPPs tonight. The guard is expected to see minimal attention on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to FantasyLabs projections, and is in terrific form right now. While shooting 64% from beyond the arc, Caruso is amassing 29 DraftKings PPG in his last five. The veteran has racked up three defensive stats per game and has received 27 minutes per game during this stretch.
Compared to the Bulls, who rank 26th in pace, the Thunder play at the sixth fastest pace in the NBA, and Caruso has 30 fantasy point upside in this up-tempo spot.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $8,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Leading this Wolves team that boasts a 10-3 record this season, Edwards has been brilliant, contributing 1.3 DraftKings PPM with a career-high 32.2% usage rate. On the menu for tonight, the blossoming star will be hosting a 76ers’ team that is coming off an overtime loss to the Cavs last night. Joel Embiid being rested tonight wouldn’t be surprising, but nonetheless, Philadelphia should be weaker than usual on defense, playing their second game in two nights and Edwards should put up a big stat line tonight.
The guard has been 5.0 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road over the last two seasons – via the Trends Tool – and has been magnificent at the Target Center as of late, scoring 52.5 DraftKings PPG in his last four starts at home.
Top Value: Buddy Hield vs. Toronto Raptors – $5,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The Pacers decided to shake up their starting five last night and moved Hield into the first unit for the first time this season. The guard responded with 30.5 DraftKings points across a season-high 30.5 minutes in the big win over the Hawks, which advanced Indiana out of the group stage for the In-Season Tournament. Hield caught fire in the fourth quarter, scoring 13 points, and considering the positive result, the sharpshooter should remain a starter and see 30+ minutes tonight vs. a Raptors’ team that is playing their second game in two nights.
This tilt carries the third-highest total on the slate (238 points), and the Pacers’ implied team total is the second-largest on the board (121.25 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Hield is generating 31.5 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 instances he has logged at least 30 minutes and is underpriced for his new as a starter.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George at San Antonio Spurs, $8,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
George has been outstanding recently, scoring 48.3 DraftKings PPG in his last four starts. Moving Russell Westbrook to the bench has helped the Clippers’ starters produce better numbers, and George gets a rematch with the Spurs tonight after he just exposed this team for 46.25 DraftKings points Monday. San Antonio ranks third in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Clippers’ implied team is the fifth highest on the slate (119.75 points).
George brings a great ceiling in this spot and is one of the best high-end values available tonight, at less than $9K on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Austin Reaves vs. Dallas Mavericks – $5,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
The Lakers blew out the Jazz by 32 points last night, and Reaves was a big part of the lopsided win for Los Angeles, recording 38.25 DraftKings points. Since moving to the bench seven games ago, Reaves has been superb as the Lakers’ sixth man, collecting 31.75 DraftKings points PPG, with a 20% usage rate and a huge 38% assist percentage, which only trails LeBron James for the Lakers during this span.
Reaves has tallied at least 33 DraftKings points in four of his last five and should continue to flourish in tonight’s up-tempo meeting with the Mavs. Both Dallas and Los Angeles rank inside the top 10 in pace this season, and this game’s total is the second-highest on the slate (240.5 points).
Reaves is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM since transitioning to his new sixth-man role and should have no issues exceeding 5x value in this high scoring affair vs. the Mavs.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Indiana Pacers – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Siakam is a great buy-low target right now. His ownership should be low after a few quiet showings, and these poor results were mostly products of poor matchups. Siakam is in a perfect get-right spot tonight vs. the Pacers, who are far and away the leaders in pace this season. Furthermore, Indiana ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, and they are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
As noted above, this game’s total ranks third on the slate (238 points), which is by a wide margin the highest total Siakam and the Raptors have competed in this season. The forward is leading Toronto with a 25.5% usage rate this season and has been awesome in totals of at least 225 points, supplying 49.5 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Aaron Nesmith vs. Toronto Raptors – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
In addition to Hield, NeSmith was put into the Pacers’ starting lineup last night and had positive results in the huge win over the Hawks, posting 24.25 DraftKings points. The wing only saw 24.4 minutes, but Nesmith struggled with foul trouble in the first half and should see more work tonight, barring foul issues again, which is unlikely.
Nesmith is averaging 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and should be able to beat this salary in this high total vs. the Raptors. For the nine occasions the 24-year-old has logged a minimum of 20 minutes this season, Nesmith is collecting 23.3 DraftKings PPG.
Center
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
The Grizzlies are extremely shorthanded right now, and Sengun’s impressive season should continue tonight. The center is fresh off a season-high 58.75 DraftKings points vs. the Warriors and has topped 40 DraftKings points in five of his past seven starts. Sengun has handled a career-high 27% usage rate this season, helping him score 1.3 DraftKings PPM.
Sengun is going to be priced over $9K soon, and we need to be rostering him at these reasonable price tags.
Top Value: Mark Williams vs. Washington Wizards – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Williams shined in Monday’s win over the Celtics, going off for a career-best 50 DraftKings points. The biggest reason for this career showing was that backup center Nick Richards (concussion) was unavailable. Williams and Richards have basically split the Hornets’ center minutes this season, and with the latter essentially absent for the last three games – Richards got hurt six minutes into last Friday’s matchup vs. the Bucks and then missed the following two – Williams has gone over 30 minutes in each of his last three starts.
This has resulted in 37.3 DraftKings PPG for the big man over this time, and before this, Williams had only cracked the 30-minute mark once in his first 10 starts of the season.
On top of the expanded role sans Richards, Williams is in a dream spot vs. the Wizards, who are 27th in defensive efficiency, second in pace, fourth in most points in the paint allowed, and first in rebounds allowed. No team in action tonight presents a higher implied team total than the Hornets (123.5 points), and Williams should post another huge double-double tonight.
