The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Houston Rockets – $12,700 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
Back to Luka Doncic we go. The Mavericks held on late to beat the Clippers 103-101 last night behind 35 points, 11 rebounds, and five rebounds from Doncic. He played 40 minutes while shooting 50% from the field and a perfect 11-for-11 from the charity stripe. Doncic is seeing a very similar price tonight on both sites, despite a much better matchup tonight against the Rockets compared to last night against the Clippers.
With Nikola Jokic out, the pay-up decision will come down to Doncic of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Doncic has the much better matchup between the two as the Rockets rank 29th in Defensive Rating this season (116.8), entering tonight’s games. This is also a huge pace-up spot for the Mavericks, who rank last in Pace as the Rockets rank ninth.
If Doncic sits on the back-to-back, Stephen Curry would easily be the best pay-up point guard on the slate.
Top Value: Jamal Murray vs. New York Knicks – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
It is rare when Nikola Jokic misses games, but it opens up so much usage and production for the rest of this Nuggets team. Not only is Jokic out, but backup point guards Bones Hyland, and Ish Smith are listed as doubtful. That will pave the way for Jamal Murray to get as many minutes as he can handle. After missing all of last season with an injury, it has taken Murray a little bit to get his legs back under him, but he has played 30 or more minutes in four-straight games.
On DraftKings, three Nuggets make up the top spots for the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Murray is third on that list but the highest among all point guards. He has scored double-digit points in all but one of his 12 games this season. With Hyland doubtful, Murray will have the highest usage on the Nuggets entering tonight’s game. There is a lot to like about this team, but getting to Murray is an obvious value play.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
With so many injuries for the Suns, they have no choice but to play Devin Booker heavy minutes. He is averaging a career-high 36.8 per game while he played 42 in their last game against the Heat. Chris Paul is still questionable, while Cameron Johnson and Jae Crowder remain out. Using our On/Off Tool, Booker had a +9.3 DraftKings Plus/Minus without Paul, Johnson, and Crowder on the floor last season in 293 total minutes.
Booker is averaging 26.5 points per game, which he has done in four of his last five seasons. He is a bonafide scoring machine that will benefit from playing against the Warriors, who rank 25th in Defensive Rating while allowing 117.5 points per game this season. This isn’t the same Warriors defense, and Booker can easily take advantage. Monitor the news dashboard to see if Paul is out. He has missed three-straight games, and that will boost Booker’s ceiling even more.
Top Value: Cam Reddish at Denver Nuggets – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau seems to finally be trusting Cam Reddish, as he has played 33 minutes in back-to-back starts. It helps when Reddish has shot the lights out with 56.7% from the field and 40% from behind the arc while making all seven of his free throws. He has even contributed defensively, with five steals in his last two games. The former Duke star may finally be getting his opportunity, and he is an elite value at this salary on both sites.
With so many Nuggets players on lineup builds tonight, Reddish may be the bring-back in a mini game stack to try and pay up for as many studs as possible. The Nuggets rank 23rd in Defensive Rating this season, which will likely go down with Jokic not in the lineup. Reddish is averaging 22.5 points per game in his last two starts, as the Knicks still have 112-point implied team total.
He can be a contrarian option to all of the chalky Nuggets value.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Atlanta Hawks – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
The Jayson Tatum ascend has been fun to watch once again this season. He has averaged more points in each year since being in the league to now he is averaging a career-high 31.9 per game. Tatum has back-to-back double-doubles as he continues to display his versatility. This salary may be a little bit of a sticker shock, but Tatum’s 31.9% usage rate while shooting 20 or more field goals in five-straight games shows how big of a ceiling he has.
The 11-3 Celtics have won seven-straight games while scoring 123.9 points per game during that run. They lead the league in points and rank second in field goal percentage with 48.4%. Their Offensive Rating (118.8) also leads the league by a big margin. Tatum is the main contributor, as he has shot a career-high 49.1% from the field as well. The Hawks play at the seventh-fastest Pace, which could mean even more looks for the red-hot Tatum.
Top Value: Bruce Brown vs. New York Knicks – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Priced at $5,100 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Nuggets guard Bruce Brown has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites tonight. He is only shooting guard eligible on FanDuel but has point guard and small forward eligibility on DraftKings. in his first season with the Nuggets, Brown is averaging double-digit points for the first time in his career while also averaging a career-high 4.2 assists per game.
Brown has started three games this season and will likely start again tonight. In those three games, Brown is playing over 30 minutes and averaging 15 points per game while shooting 62.1% from the field and 61.5% from behind the arc. The Knicks rank 24th in Defensive Rating and are playing much faster this season with the addition of Jalen Brunson. With this 227.5-point game total, Brown is going to be tough to ignore even with an inflated salary.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Khris Middleton is out, while Jrue Holiday is listed as questionable as he has missed three-straight games. Regardless if Holiday plays or not, Giannis Antetokounmpo is worth paying up for. The last two games have been 15+ point victories for the Bucks, so Giannis wasn’t needed as much. He has averaged just 29 minutes and 26 points per game during that stretch. With a four-point spread, expect Giannis to get extended minutes in this game.
This is a tough spot for Giannis as the Cavaliers rank sixth in points allowed in the paint and lead the league in rebounding percentage. The paint and rebounding is what Giannis does best. For what it’s worth, Giannis averaged 27.5 points and 11.0 rebounds per game in his last four games against the Cavaliers. If Holiday is out, it will continue to be the Giannis show. That is enough to make him one of the best plays on the slate.
Top Value: Michael Porter Jr. vs. New York Knicks – $5,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
The last Nuggets value will be Michael Porter Jr. Like Murray, Porter Jr. sat out nearly all of last season with an injury as he is also starting to play more and get his legs back under him. He is coming off of his best game of the season, where he poured in 31 points while shooting 11 of 16 from the field and 6 of 9 from behind the arc. Porter Jr. had 42.25 DraftKings points while only playing a total of 24 minutes.
Porter Jr. is second on the Nuggets in scoring this season behind Jokic with 18 points per game. He is still only averaging 29.1 minutes a night, but our Tournament Model has him projected for 34 minutes tonight. Another injury that could boost Porter Jr.’s production is if Aaron Gordon were to sit. He is currently questionable to play, so make sure to monitor his status the closer we get to lock because that would really boost the rebounding numbers for Porter Jr.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns at Orlando Magic – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
With Nikola Jokic and Pascal Siakam not playing tonight, the center position looks a little weaker than normal on a 10-game slate. The best pay-up center is Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns, who has power forward eligibility on both sites. Towns leads the Timberwolves in points with 21.8 per game as he averages nearly a double-double with 9.3 rebounds. His peripherals have taken a hit with the addition of Rudy Gobert, but Towns still has shown a ceiling.
Towns has five games with 50 or more DraftKings points in his last eight appearances. The Magic have been a really strong rebounding team this season, but if Paolo Banchero is out that rebounding advantage is diminished. They also allowed 64 points in the paint in their most recent game without Banchero. The versatile Towns can beat a defensive team in a variety of ways. He is a good way to get different without breaking the bank.
Top Value: Kevin Love at Milwaukee Bucks – $5,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Veteran Kevin Love has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the center position. Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen is out after missing last game as well due to an injury. Donovan Mitchell is also questionable to play tonight, which would open up even more production as he has dominated in his first season with the Cavaliers. Love will likely draw the start tonight and is projected to play a little over 27 minutes.
At 34 years old, Love is still able to produce high-level scoring and rebounding the ball. Over the last six games, Love is averaging 11.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 31.1 DraftKings points per game. Prioritize Love on FanDuel at his $4,900 salary, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating.
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