On the schedule for Wednesday night is a six-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $8,400
Haliburton has been on a tear, scoring 55.2 DraftKings PPG in his last three starts. The guard’s shooting has widely improved since the All-Star Break, with Haliburton shooting 55% from the field and 46% from beyond the arc since the time off.
Tonight he will be facing the Lakers, who have been struggling on defense as of late, ranking 24th in defensive rating over their last 10 games. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (235.5 points), and Los Angeles is only favored by one point. This is the top game of the night to target, and Haliburton is one of the best ways to gain a share of this tilt. In spreads under three points this season, Haliburton is producing 45.3 DraftKings PPG (eight games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Jamal Shead at Brooklyn Nets – $4,400
With Immanuel Quickley (rest) inactive tonight, Shead is a steal at this low salary. In the last two games Quickley has missed, Shead has started in his place and generated 27.5 DraftKings points in 26.2 minutes per game with a 17.6% usage rate.
Facing a Nets defense that ranks 19th in rating since the All-Star Break, Shead has a ceiling over 30 DraftKings, and he is a top-five value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Quentin Grimes vs. Washington Wizards – $9,100
Grimes will be available tonight after being rested Monday and going against the tanking Wizards; the 76ers carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate (117.5 points). With the 76ers tanking themselves and without a plethora of players, most notably Joel Embiid (knee), Tyrese Maxey (finger), and Paul George (groin), Grimes has been their top option, and he has flourished, leading Philadelphia with 47 DraftKings PPG (12 games) and a 31% usage rate this month.
The wing has exploded for at least 59 DraftKings points in three of these games, and Grimes has that type of upside tonight.
Top Value: AJ Johnson at Philadelphia 76ers – $4,500
With the Wizards in full-on tank mode, Johnson has seen a large role recently. In his last six games, Johnson has ranked third on the team with 26.6 minutes per game, which has translated into 23.4 DraftKings PPG for the rookie.
Tonight, Washington is going to be extra shorthanded with Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart both being rested. Johnson should approach 30 minutes with these two veterans missing and effortlessly outproduce his low salary against this 76ers team that ranks seventh in pace and dead last in defensive rating since the All-Star break. In the 72 minutes Johnson has played with Middleton and Smart off the floor this season, Johnson is averaging 1.0 DraftKings PPM with a 19.6% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at New York Knicks – $8,800
With the Clippers chasing the Warriors for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference, which is very important as the top six seeds in each conference avoid the Play-In Tournament, Leonard has been playing his best basketball of the season. In his last six starts, the two-time NBA Finals MVP is providing 48 DraftKings points in 36 minutes per game. After Golden State’s loss in Miami last night, Los Angeles is only a half game behind them, and the Clippers will be highly motivated to get a win in New York tonight.
In this situation, Leonard is one of the best spends on the slate, and he would become a must-play if James Harden (questionable, foot) is out. With the guard off the floor this season, Leonard’s usage rises a team-high 5.7 percentage points to a huge 34.3%.
Top Value: Justin Edwards vs. Washington Wizards – $5,700
Edwards’ salary on DraftKings has hit a new season high, but he still remains too cheap for his current role with the 76ers. Edwards is leading the team with 36.6 minutes per game in their last five, and with this huge workload, the forward is amassing 33.2 DraftKings PPG. During this time, Edwards has scored over 30 DraftKings points in every game, and he is shooting 46% from the field while handling a 21% usage rate.
The 76ers present the second-highest implied team total on the slate against the Wizards (117.5 points), and Edwards should score nothing less than 30 DraftKings points in this spot.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Boston Celtics – $9,300
With the Suns treating every game like a must-win right now as they fight to hang onto the final spot for the Play-In Tournament in the Western Conference, Durant has been putting up huge numbers. After scoring 64 DraftKings points vs. the Cavaliers, the forward posted 62.25 DraftKings points vs. the Bucks in his next start. Both these teams are top-10 defenses this season, and Bradley Beal (hamstring) missed both of these games.
The guard will remain sidelined tonight, and Durant is leading the Suns with 46.4 DraftKings PPG with Beal inactive this season (16 games). Durant should rise to the occasion of playing the defending champion Celtics tonight and is one of the best spends on the slate.
Top Value: Kyle Kuzma at Denver Nuggets – $5,500
With Giannis Antetokounmpo (foot) and Damian Lillard (calf) both out tonight, Kuzma is criminally underpriced and a core play. In the lone game Kuzma has played as a Buck without Antetokounmpo and Lillard, Kuzma finished with 42.75 DraftKings points vs. the Timberwolves, which is his best performance in a Milwaukee uniform. With both Antetokounmpo and Lillard off the court this season, Kuzma’s usage leaps 7.4 percentage points to 28.2%, and he scores 1.0 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Going against a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st in rating this season, Kuzma has a strong chance of topping 40 DraftKings points.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $10,000
If the Knicks remain without Jalen Brunson (ankle) and Miles McBride (groin) tonight as expected, Towns will have huge upside, regardless of this being a poor matchup vs. the Clippers, who rank second in defensive rating this season. With Brunson and McBride out last night, Towns exploded for 63.5 DraftKings points vs. the Mavericks.
This was the third game Towns has played without those two guards this season, and in those tilts, the center is leading the Knicks with 61.8 DraftKings PPG and a 32.3% usage rate, which is a 4.8 percentage point upgrade from his season average.
Top Value: Brook Lopez at Denver Nuggets – $6,000
While Lopez’s 27.6 DraftKings PPG average with both Antetokounmpo and Lillard inactive this season isn’t great, Bobby Portis was available for all four of these games. The veteran has since been suspended by the NBA, and with Portis also missing tonight, the Bucks will have no choice but to give Lopez huge minutes with the team so shorthanded in their frontcourt.
With Antetokounmpo, Lillard, and Portis off the floor this season, Lopez has seen the biggest boost for Milwaukee with his fantasy production increasing from 0.9 to 1.3 DraftKings PPM, which is a result of all his rates seeing significant upgrades. Most notably, Lopez’s usage jumps a team-high 7.9 percentage points to 23.8%. The former All-Star has way higher upside than his price tag suggests, and Lopez can be rostered with confidence tonight.
