The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard at Utah Jazz – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
It is only a matter of time until Damian Lillard gets shut down for the season, as the Trail Blazers would need a miracle to make the play-in tournament in the Western Conference. However, with no sign of Lillard sitting out, getting exposure to the All-Star point guard feels like a necessity. Among all of the pay-up options in our NBA Model, Lillard has by far the best value on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as he remains a little too cheap in this spot.
Lillard is averaging over 30 points per game for the first time in his career. He also will get a significant boost tonight as his backcourt teammate Anfernee Simons is out due to an injury. With Simons off the floor this season, Lillard is averaging a team-high +4.7% usage rate and a +6.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
This is a massive game in the standings, so look for Lillard to do whatever he can to keep the Trail Blazers’ season afloat.
Top Value: Jamal Murray at Washington Wizards – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Damian Lillard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel at the point guard position, but Jamal Murray isn’t too far behind him, priced at $7,700 on both sites. Despite losing five of their last seven games, the Nuggets have a comfortable lead atop the Western Conference. Murray has been awesome since the All-Star Break, averaging 21.2 points, 7.1 assists, and 39.9 DraftKings points per game in his last 11 games.
This will be the last game of the Nuggets’ five-game road trip, as they are seven-point favorites against the Wizards who have lost three-straight games. Murray is playing too well to ignore at this price tag. He is one of several players who has 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 10 on DraftKings. With a plethora of guards questionable to play tonight, Murray looks like one of the best options, especially if those injured guards start getting ruled out.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Los Angeles Lakers – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Devin Booker has seen his salary rise, but it is deserving, with Kevin Durant still sidelined due to injury. Booker is coming off of a 46-point game against the Thunder, where he shot 18 of 28 from the field. His peripherals have been down recently, but Booker is still scoring at an elite level. He is averaging a career-high 28 points per game while shooting 49.6% from the field. Booker will feast on this easy matchup against the Lakers, who rank third in pace this season.
The Phoenix Suns have lost four of their last five games but still hold a slight lead for the No. 4 seed and a home playoff series. They can build on that lead in what should be a great game at the Staples Center. Not only do the Lakers play fast, but they allow their opponents to shoot 36.8 3-point attempts per game, which is tied for the fourth-highest in the league.
That plays right into Booker’s game, who might put up 50 points tonight.
Top Value: Cam Reddish at Utah Jazz – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Cam Reddish is another Trail Blazers guard who will benefit from the absence of Anfernee Simons. Reddish was acquired by the Trail Blazers in early February and has played really well except for his last game against the Clippers. He has scored double-digit points in 12 of his 16 games with his new team while shooting a career-best 45% from the field. They need his scoring without Simons, so expect a bounce-back game from Reddish tonight.
Reddish is currently projected for the highest ownership on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. The Jazz are a very exploitable matchup as they rank 24th in Defensive Rating and allow 91.1 field goal attempts per game, which ranks as the third-highest in the league. Points will be scored in flurries in this matchup, as both teams are atrocious on defense.
The Trail Blazers are also without Jerami Grant, solidifying the minutes and production for Reddish.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
After missing back-to-back games due to an ankle injury, the Timberwolves seem optimistic that Anthony Edwards is likely to play in this game. The rising star has been fantastic for the Timberwolves all season, as he is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage. The Timberwolves may also get Karl-Anthony Towns back after missing four months of action, so keep an eye on both of their statuses tonight.
The Hawks are playing on a back-to-back after beating the Pistons by 26 points last night. They struggle on back-to-backs and have a defense that ranks 22nd in defensive rating this season. Before the injury, Edwards was averaging 30.2 points per game over the last five games while shooting 48.7% from the field.
This is a great matchup for Edwards as long as he is healthy. After all, it is Anthony Edwards bobblehead giveaway tonight.
Top Value: David Roddy vs. Houston Rockets – $3,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
With Dillon Brooks serving his suspension tonight, David Roddy is a great value play, especially on DraftKings. Priced at only $3,200, Roddy has the highest Projected Plus/Minus among all positions on DraftKings with a 97% Bargain Rating. The rookie from Colorado State has played 20+ minutes in four of the Grizzlies’ last six games and is projected to play 28 minutes in this spot without Brooks, making him look fantastic in our model.
The Grizzlies have won six of their last seven games and will likely get Ja Morant back after missing most of the last few weeks due to suspension. What a great matchup for the Grizzlies playing at home against the Rockets, who have the second-worst record in the league. They are 12.5-point favorites as the Rockets rank 29th in Defensive Rating (118.2).
Given the extra opportunity, Roddy should flourish in this matchup.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. San Antonio Spurs – $11,800 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
It is difficult to find a better matchup for Giannis Antetokounmpo than the Spurs at home. They are allowing a league-high 56.4 points per game in the paint and rank dead last in defensive rating. Giannis has the highest projected ceiling on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel, as he is averaging 31.3 points, 11 rebounds, and 58.3 DraftKings points per game in his last eight games. Even if he plays limited minutes, Giannis will dominate this matchup.
The Bucks have the highest implied total on the slate at 127.75 points, as they are monstrous 18-point home favorites against the Spurs. They hold a two-game lead over the Celtics in the Eastern Conference for the No. 1 seed. This is not a back-to-back, but make sure to monitor Giannis’ status because they truly don’t need him for this game. If he were to sit, Bobby Portis and Khris Middleton are forwards to get exposure to.
Top Value: Jaden McDaniels vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
With Anthony Edwards sidelined, Jaden McDaniels was able to take over and come into his own, which should pay dividends for the Timberwolves moving forward. Over the last six games, McDaniels is averaging 18.2 points per game while shooting 52.1% from the field. McDaniels is also known as being one of the league’s best defenders. He will likely guard Trae Young, who is turning the ball over 4.1 times per game.
McDaniels has also shown rebounding upside, but the Timberwolves are getting Karl-Anthony Towns back after missing 51 games. Even with Towns back, he may be limited, and the Hawks give up plenty of rebounds to go around as they rank 22nd in Rebounding Percentage this season. Averaging a career-high 12.1 points per game while shooting 51.8% from the field, McDaniels has progressed as a great role player with upside.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Washington Wizards – $11,500 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
Once again, we are met with the Nikola Jokic vs. Joel Embiid discussion for the best center option on tonight’s slate. Our model gives the edge to Jokic with the higher ceiling projection and better matchup against a weak Wizards frontcourt. It helps that Jokic is also cheaper than Embiid by $200 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Jokic is coming off of his league-high 28th triple-double this season with 22 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists.
In his only matchup against the Wizards this season, Jokic went nuclear with 43 points, 14 rebounds, eight assists, and five blocks on his way to 82 DraftKings points. He shot 17 of 20 from the field as he torched this Wizards frontcourt. Kristaps Porzingis is healthy, but outside of him, the Wizards don’t have many bodies to throw against Jokic. Expect another dominating performance for the potential third-straight MVP winner.
Top Value: Rudy Gobert vs. Atlanta Hawks – $7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Rudy Gobert, even with Karl-Anthony Towns playing again, has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the center position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Gobert has been a little inconsistent recently but has faced difficult matchups. Clint Capela plays a lot like Gobert, but overall the Hawks’ have been very poor on the glass, which bodes well for Gobert, who ranks fourth in the league in rebounds averaging 11.5 per game.
Playing alongside Towns will be interesting to see as the rest of the season unfolds. They have only played together in 19 games, as the Timberwolves went 9-10 during that time. Surprisingly enough, Gobert averaged 12.4 rebounds per game with Towns compared to 11 without him. Gobert is too cheap across the industry in this matchup. Towns is projected to only play 24 minutes, so don’t be intimidated by his return, as he may even come off the bench.
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