Wednesday night delivers an eight-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard at Boston Celtics – $9,100 DraftKings
Despite this tough matchup vs. the Celtics – who rank second in defensive efficiency – Lillard is a worthwhile spend tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo (hamstring) will miss his second game in a row, and with the forward inactive Sunday, we saw a vintage performance from Lillard, with him finishing with 64.75 DraftKings points in a win over the Suns. The guard is now leading the Bucks with 54.2 DraftKings PPG with Antetokounmpo out this season (four games), via the On/Off Tool. In those contests, Lillard’s usage and assist rates have skyrocketed 7.6 and 17.2 percentage points, respectively.
The veteran amasses 1.4 DraftKings PPM with Antetokounmpo off the floor and is vastly underpriced for life without the forward.
Top Value: Keon Ellis at Toronto Raptors – $3,800 DraftKings
After Kevin Huerter (shoulder) exited less than two minutes into the game Monday, Ellis was the primary beneficiary for the Kings, posting 29.75 DraftKings points across 33 minutes vs. the Grizzlies. The 24-year-old started the second half in place of Huerter and finished a +13 in the box score, which ranked second for Sacramento in the win over Memphis. Ellis should draw the start with Huerter out tonight, and this is a terrific matchup vs. the Raptors, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency this season and will be without a slew of key players.
If we include Monday, Ellis is generating 27.6 DraftKings PPG for the last two contests Huerter has missed and he is rating as the No.1 guard value on the slate in our NBA models.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anfernee Simons vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $7,600 DraftKings
Simons has been hot, pouring in 50.5 DraftKings PPG in his last three and he went off for 48.25 DraftKings points when he last faced the Clippers in December. Los Angeles ranks 22nd in defensive rating this month and Jerami Grant (shoulder) is doubtful for Portland. With the forward off the floor this season, Simons has scored 1.2 DraftKings PPM, behind a team-high 30.6% usage rate.
Simons shouldn’t be priced under $8,000 right now and is viable for all formats.
Top Value: Jahmi’us Ramsey vs. Sacramento Kings – $3,200
The Raptors will be without Scottie Barnes (hand), Immanuel Quickley (personal), and RJ Barrett (personal), making Ramsey a viable punt play. The 22-year-old has been Quickley’s direct backup for the last three games and there is a chance Ramsey gets the spot start tonight. Nevertheless, the third-year player should see over 20 minutes of work, starter or not, and easily out-produce this near-minimum salary in this plus matchup vs. the Kings.
Sacramento ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace this season, and with Barnes, Quickley, and Barrett off the court, Ramsey supplies 0.94 DraftKings PPM.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $9,900 DraftKings
The Celtics are a team to keep a close eye on tonight. Both Jaylen Brown (ankle) and Jrue Holiday (shoulder) are questionable, and if either of these starters sits tonight, Tatum will have a massive ceiling against this Bucks’ team that is missing Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee’s defensive rating drops to 117.9 with the forward off the floor this season, and Tatum’s usage rises at least 3.0 percentage points when one of Brown or Holiday are off the court.
Plus, for the 13 occasions this season that Boston has been without at least one of Brown or Holiday, Tatum is leading the Celtics with 50.4 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Bruce Brown vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,600 DraftKings
With the Raptors down Barnes, Quickley, and Barrett, Brown should see a massive role tonight. Those three players lead Toronto in usage since the trade deadline, and with them off the floor, Brown provides 1.0 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his assist percentage jumping 11.5 percentage points to 25%, via the On/Off Tool.
FantasyLabs is projecting Brown for about 36 minutes tonight and the veteran is collecting 31.5 DraftKings PPG for the last five instances he has cracked the 30-minute mark. Brown is clearly underpriced for his expected role tonight and is a steal at this price tag.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $9,400
This is a great time to buy low on Durant. FantasyLabs is projecting him to be only around 5% owned on DraftKings due to him coming off a lackluster four-game road trip, which ended with the veteran only taking 10 shots in Sunday’s loss to the Bucks. The 13.1% usage rate Durant saw in this contest is easily the lowest he has seen this season, and the media was very critical of the forward following this defeat. Durant is notoriously known for paying close attention to what the media says about him and the former MVP should be focused to prove his doubters wrong this evening.
Going against a 76ers team that remains without Joel Embiid (knee), the Suns carry the sixth-highest implied team total on the slate (116 points), and when Durant faced Philadelphia back in November, he tallied 49.5 DraftKings points. Despite some ugly games, Durant has also flashed huge upside as of late, recording at least 57 DraftKings points in three of his past seven starts. Durant brings this type of upside tonight and is worth rolling the dice on in GPPs.
Top Value: Jordan Nwora vs. Sacramento Kings – $3,800
Nwora has supplied 25.8 DraftKings PPG in his last three and should put up even better numbers tonight, with Quickley joining Barnes and Barrett on the sidelines. With those three players off the court this season, Nwora has been very efficient, scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM, due to his usage rate increasing 4.7 percentage points to a team-high 26.6%.
Starter or reserve, Nwora should see at least 25 minutes and destroy this cheap salary. For the six times he has logged over 20 minutes this season, the forward is contributing 26.8 DraftKings PPG. In our NBA models, Nwora is rating as the No.1 value on the slate by a comfortable margin.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Deandre Ayton vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $8,200 DraftKings
Ayton is a man on a mission right now and needs to be rostered until further notice. Since the All-Star Break, the center is amassing 48.4 DraftKings PPG in nine starts. During this span, Ayton has logged 35.4 minutes per game, and he has seen a 25% usage rate, which are huge upgrades from the 31.7 minutes per game and 18.8% usage rate he was seeing before the All-Star break. Grant (shoulder) being doubtful solidifies a large usage rate for Ayton tonight and he should put up a huge fantasy score taking on the Clippers on his home floor.
Los Angeles ranks 22nd in defensive rating this month, and for the last six times Ayton has competed at home, he has scored at least 50 DraftKings points four times.
Top Value: Walker Kessler at Oklahoma City Thunder – 5,200 DraftKings
Slated for minimal ownership in FantasyLabs’ projections, Kessler is a sharp contrarian play. Lauri Markkanen (quad) is out tonight, and Kessler is scoring 27.7 DraftKings PPG with Markkanen inactive this season (13 games). Plus, this is an appealing spot for centers. The Thunder are giving up the fifth most rebounds in the NBA, and Kessler is averaging 26 DraftKings PPG against them in two matchups this season.
Lastly, due note that John Collins (face/head) is questionable and if he is inactive, Kessler would become an even stronger option, possibly with a starter’s role. In the two contests he has played without both Markkanen and Collins this season, Kessler is generating 33.5 DraftKings PPG.
