For Wednesday, both DraftKings and FanDuel’s main slates feature the first six games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Golden State Warriors – $12,800 DraftKings, $12,800 FanDuel
Doncic is an unstoppable force right now, and having shares of the superstar is a must tonight. Including seven consecutive triple-doubles, Doncic has topped 70 DraftKings points in 10 of his past 12 starts, with his peak during this stretch being an 87 DraftKings point explosion vs. the Cavs. Doncic’s usage has been at a mammoth 35.1% during this 12-game stretch, and everything is aligned for him to erupt again tonight. The Mavs will be at home, where Doncic has been 1.5 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road this season and facing the Warriors, who rank eighth in pace.
Doncic posted 70.8 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with Golden State, and not only does this game carry the second-highest total on the slate (233 points), Dallas’ implied team total is the largest on the board (120 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. For the last four instances, the Mavs have seen an implied team total of at least 120 points. Doncic hasn’t scored less than 72 DraftKings points.
In our NBA Models, the guard brings the highest ceiling on the slate by over 10 fantasy points, and he is rating as a top-five value for both DraftKings and FanDuel despite being the most expensive player available.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu at Indiana Pacers – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
In this elite spot vs. the Pacers, Dosunmu is a great mid-tier target. In addition to playing their second game in two nights, Indiana ranks second in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. Dosunmu has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in six of his past 10 starts, and he has logged 38.1 minutes per game during this timeframe.
Facing the Pacers is a massive pace increase for this Bulls’ team, which is the sixth-slowest offense in the league. This game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (230 points). For the last five times he has competed in a total of 230 points or more, Dosunmu is amassing 34.7 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at New Orleans Pelicans – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
While paying up at shooting guard is not an optimal route for roster construction tonight, Mitchell (questionable, knee) has GPP appeal if he suits up and isn’t under a minute limit. Before missing these past seven, Mitchell had exceeded 50 DraftKings points in six of his previous 10 starts. Plus, Evan Mobley (ankle) is out and for with the big man off the court this season, Mitchell has led the Cavs with 1.44 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
There are plenty of downsides to rostering a player coming off an extended absence, but Mitchell obviously brings massive upside if he is healthy, and he will come with essentially no ownership coming off the knee injury.
Top Value: Jaden Ivey vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
The Pistons have been relying on Ivey more as of late, with the guard seeing at least 32 minutes in three straight games, which has translated into 35.2 DraftKings PPG for Ivey. The 22-year-old has seen a 25.5% usage rate over this time and Detroit has won two of these three games, so the heavy volume should certainly continue tonight for Ivey. Plus, this is an awesome matchup, with the Raptors ranking second in pace and 27th in defensive rating this month.
The Pistons’ implied team total is the second-highest on the slate (118 points), the third-highest they have seen this season, and this game’s total is the highest on the board (233.5 points). Ivey should thrive in this spot and is a threat for over 40 fantasy points.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Brandon Miller at Memphis Grizzlies – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
With the Hornets severely depleted, Miller has been the primary beneficiary, scoring 36.75 DraftKings PPG in his last six starts, with a 26.9% usage rate over this span. LaMelo Ball (ankle), Cody Martin (ankle), and Seth Curry (ankle) all remain out tonight, and while this isn’t the greatest matchup, with the Grizzlies ranking 10th in defensive efficiency this season, they are playing their second game in two nights, which should naturally make them weaker on the defensive end.
Miller should outperform these salaries regardless of the matchup and he is expected to be mostly overly overlooked, with FantasyLabs projecting the rookie for modest ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Bruce Brown at Detroit Pistons – $5,10 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
With Immanuel Quickley (hip) and Gary Trent Jr. (groin) out Monday, Brown started and tallied a double-double of 31 DraftKings points across 37.4 minutes in a difficult road matchup vs. the Nuggets, who rank 11th in defensive efficiency. Quickley and Trent Jr. are questionable tonight, but RJ Barrett (personal) is out after playing Monday, so Brown will likely remain a starter and see a large role that could grow even further if one of or both of Quickley and Trent Jr. remain sidelined.
Brown scores 0.82 DraftKings PPM with Barrett off the floor, and for the five times he has played with Barrett inactive since joining the Raptors in January, Brown is collecting 27.8 DraftKings PPG, via the On/Off Tool. This is a much easier matchup for him after facing Denver on Monday, with the Pistons ranking third-to-last in defensive efficiency this season and Brown is rating as the No.1 value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA Models.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Zion Williamson vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $8,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Even in this ugly matchup with the Cavs, who rank third in defensive efficiency, Williamson needs to be considered. The forward has been dominant, supplying 49.5 DraftKings PPG in his last three while racking 2.3 defensive stats per game.
The Pelicans are seven-point favorites for this matchup with Cleveland, which also bodes well for Williamson. For the last 12 times he has competed as a favorite, Williamson has amassed 43.2 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Caleb Martin vs. Denver Nuggets – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Martin continues to be underpriced for his current role with Tyler Herro (ankle) on the shelf and is a viable value play to attack from this NBA Finals rematch from last year. With Herro sidelined for the past eight, Martin has generated 25.1 DraftKings PPG, including a 27.25 DraftKings point outing vs. the same Nuggets’ team he will face tonight.
While the veteran comes off the bench, Martin has seen a starter-like role, logging 30 minutes per game during this span, and he has notably closed the game with the starters in four straight contests. At these price points, Martin is one of the best forward values on the slate and is viable for all formats.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Duren vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
With many of the top centers in difficult spots tonight, Duren is the best target at the position. On top of ranking second in pace and 27th in defensive rating this month, Toronto is surrendering the most rebounds and sixth-most points in the paint in March. This is a sensational spot for opposing big men and Duren should record a large double-double in this slate-high total vs. the Raptors (233.5 points).
The 20-year-old has scored at least 38 DraftKings points in two of his past three starts and posted 43.25 DraftKings points when he faced the Raptors back in December.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
While FanDuel was quick to adjust his salary, Gafford remains far too cheap on DraftKings and is a sharp way to gain another share of this high-scoring affair between the Mavs and Warriors (233 points). Gafford has been making headlines, as the center has made 28 consecutive shots in his last four games, which is eight away from passing Wilt Chamberlin’s all-time record. Gafford’s efficiency during this run has unsurprisingly translated into great fantasy numbers, with him amassing 34.2 DraftKings PPG in these past four.
Gafford has received at least 20 minutes of work in these last four and he is scoring a tremendous 1.4 DraftKings PPM since being acquired by the Mavs last month. Gafford has provided 35.2 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 instances he has seen a minimum of 20 minutes and is a core play on DraftKings at only $5,000.
