The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant at Charlotte Hornets – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Ja Morant holds the slight edge over LaMelo Ball for the top ceiling point guard play, but both players look fantastic in a matchup against each other. Deciding between the two is likely a site-dependent decision. On DraftKings, Morant is $100 cheaper than Ball. However, on FanDuel, he is $800 more expensive. Morant has the highest ceiling on both sites but needs to be prioritized on DraftKings over Ball. He gets the edge mainly due to this great matchup.
The Hornets are one of three teams who have only 10 wins this season, as the Grizzlies are 7.5-point road favorites. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 122 points, which is the third-highest on the slate. It is pretty easy to like the Grizzlies’ side of this game because the Hornets rank 26th in Defensive Rating and eighth in Pace.
Morant may not be a priority among the other elite options, but he has scored over 30 points in four of his last five games.
Top Value: Jose Alvarado vs. Houston Rockets – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
There are several strong point guard plays in the mid-range, but if we dive lower in the salary for value, Jose Alvarado is our best bet. Not only is Brandon Ingram still out, but so is Zion Williamson for the next few weeks. Ingram and Williamson led the Pelicans in usage rate, so without them, there is more usage and production to go around. Pair that with an incredible matchup against the Rockets, who are another 10-win team, and Alvarado looks that much better.
Despite only having Alvarado projected to play 23 minutes, he is popping as the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus point guard on DraftKings and the sixth-highest on FanDuel. All other point guards ahead of him are much more expensive. The Rockets rank 28th in Defensive Rating as the Pelicans are still seven-point favorites without their two stars. Alvarado is a cheap way to get exposure to a Pelicans team implied for 117.75 points tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Indiana Pacers – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Leading the league in assists with 11 per game, James Harden is a near-lock for a double-double every time he touches the floor. Over his last five games, Harden is averaging 24.4 points, 13 assists, and 57.2 DraftKings points while playing 39.4 minutes per game. Even with Tyrese Maxey healthy again, Harden has put up some huge ceiling games. He is another guard who looks a little better on DraftKings, given the $500 price discount from FanDuel.
In the 76ers’ only game against the Pacers this season, it was the James Harden show as he had a near triple-double with 29 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds while shooting 10 of 18 from the field and 5 of 10 from behind the arc. It was his third-highest DraftKings score of the season. This is a great matchup for Harden, who is much cheaper than Joel Embiid and likely won’t carry near the amount of ownership.
He is a very strong tournament play.
Top Value: Immanuel Quickley vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
The guard with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel is Knicks’ Immanuel Quickley. Jalen Brunson is back, but RJ Barrett remains out with a finger injury. Quickley’s salary on both sites has been on the rise rapidly, but he has averaged 44.9 DraftKings points while playing an absurd 42.5 minutes per game over his last four games. Quickley has proved to be deserving of the price increase as he looks poised for another great game.
Even for the Knicks, who are not the most potent offense in the league, playing against the Spurs brings out the best in everyone. The Spurs rank dead last in Defensive Rating this season, as they are allowing a league-high 121 points per game. The Knicks are nearly double-digit home favorites with an implied total of 118.25 points. Quickley’s price tag may be a bit of a sticker shock, but with how well he has played recently paired with this matchup, he looks like an awesome value.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Miami Heat – $10,700 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
The Lakers have become used to playing without Anthony Davis, but LeBron James has recently popped up on the injury report with his own ankle issue. Make sure to monitor the status of James the closer we get to lock in our news dashboard, as he is questionable to play tonight. This is the second game of an ESPN doubleheader, so we can expect him to play. After back-to-back wins, the Lakers need James to keep any momentum they can against the Heat.
Using our On/Off Tool, James has a +2.4% usage rate and a +2.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus in a team-high 559 minutes without Davis on the floor this season. In the 10 games that Davis has missed, James is averaging a herculean 34.8 points per game while shooting a ridiculous 55.8% from the field. The Heat rank eighth in Defensive Rating while allowing the third-fewest points in the league with 109.4 per game.
It’s a difficult matchup, but James is an elite option without Davis.
Top Value: Naji Marshall vs. Houston Rockets – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Another Pelicans value player worth getting exposure to is forward Naji Marshall. Not only does Jose Alvarado receive a 3% usage rate increase without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram on the floor, but so does Marshall. He will likely jump back into the starting unit with Williamson out for at least three weeks. In the nine games that Marshall has started this season, he is averaging 13.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 33.3 minutes, and 27.8 DraftKings points per game.
With Williamson and Ingram out, Marshall also has a +6.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus using our On/Off Tool. Priced under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Marshall is a cheap way to get exposure to this breath of fresh air matchup against the Rockets. Throughout the season, Marshall is still struggling shooting the ball. However, in those nine started games, he shot 49.4% from the field while attempting 9.9 field goals per game.
Based on his salary on both sites, Marshall may be the best value play on the slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Toronto Raptors – $11,900 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
The matchup has changed significantly, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is yet again the best ceiling player in our Tournament Model tonight. He has posted over 80 DraftKings points in three-straight games as he is coming off a career-high 55 points last night. Giannis shot 20 of 33 from the field and even made a shocking 15 of 16 from the charity stripe. Playing on a back-to-back after 37 minutes, it may be wise to make sure Giannis is playing tonight.
It is shocking to see the Raptors outside of the current playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, but they have struggled losing nine of their last 12 games. The Raptors continue to lead the league in steals while ranking in the top 10 in both Defensive Rating and points allowed. Despite the difficult matchup against the Raptors defense, Giannis still has massive double-double upside and has an elite upside.
With so many studs questionable or already ruled out, Giannis is the clear-cut best pay-up option.
Top Value: Jalen McDaniels vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
The second-best Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings belongs to Hornets power forward Jalen McDaniels. Priced at only $4,400 on DraftKings, McDaniels has a 96% Bargain Rating and is $1,100 cheaper than he is on FanDuel. Kelly Oubre Jr. is going to be sidelined 4-to-6 weeks with an injury, while Gordon Hayward is doubtful with a hamstring injury. That will pave the way for McDaniels to play 30+ minutes like he is projected and be a superb value play.
McDaniels has scored double-digit points in each of his last four games while pulling down at least six rebounds in three of those four. He is shooting 51.6% from the field during that time while playing 26.8 minutes per game. We have him projected to play 32 minutes tonight giving McDaniels an outside shot at a double-double. The Grizzlies are a very good defensive and rebounding team, but McDaniels is way too cheap on DraftKings with Oubre Jr. and Hayward likely out.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Indiana Pacers – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Outside of Giannis, Joel Embiid has the second-highest ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is coming off a pretty impressive game in his own right with 42 points and 11 rebounds for 67.75 DraftKings points. Even with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey healthy, Embiid still has a high ceiling. Embiid is averaging a career-high 33.4 points per game, which ranks as the second-highest in the league. He also has a 37.7% usage rate, which ranks as the third-highest.
This is an elite matchup for Embiid to reach that ceiling once again. The Pacers rank 22nd in Defensive Rating and 25th in Rebounding Percentage (48.6) entering tonight’s games. For a team that ranks 19th in points allowed in the paint, Embiid should feast in this spot. He scored 26 points in 28 minutes in their first meeting as the 76ers won by 14 points despite foul trouble for Embiid.
Expect Embiid to be one of the highest-scoring players on this large 12-game slate.
Note: be sure to monitor Embiid’s (foot) status leading up to lock.
Top Value: Wendell Carter Jr. vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Steven Adams is another great value play on DraftKings at $5,400, but Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. looks like the better value for both sites. The Magic only have nine available players currently, and a few of those options are borderline G-League talent. Playing with limited bodies, there are several Magic players who look great in our model. Carter Jr. served his one-game suspension last game, while others are still serving their time for the altercation against the Pistons last week. With his salary decreasing on both sites, Carter Jr. looks like a strong play tonight.
A few key players who are out for the Magic are Bol Bol, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Mo Wagner. Those players being out will solidify Carter Jr. to play as many minutes as he can handle. In his third season with the Magic, Carter Jr. is averaging a career-high 16 points per game while shooting 52% from the field. He is averaging 8.4 rebounds per game as the Thunder rank 26th in Rebounding Percentage this season.
Carter Jr. looks like a strong play on both sites, given this easy matchup and limited Magic players.
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