On the menu for tonight is a nine-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Washington Wizards – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Harden should flourish in this dream spot versus the Wizards and is one of the best ways to attack the Clippers’ massive implied team total (124.25 points). Washington ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and second in pace compared to this Los Angeles team that ranks 26th in pace.
Harden has produced 46.3 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts, including four double-doubles, and he is generating 47.3 DraftKings PPG for the six occasions he has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, via the Trends Tool. While these results came when he was with the 76ers, it is worth noting that Harden has been outstanding versus the Wizards over the past few seasons, supplying 56.3 DraftKings PPG in his last three meetings with the club.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu at Charlotte Hornets – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
With Zach LaVine (ankle) and Patrick Williams (foot) sidelined for the last two, Dosunmu has started for the Bulls and provided 30 DraftKings points in 36 minutes per game. The guard is collecting 0.8 DraftKings PPM with LaVine and Williams off the floor this season, and this is a plus spot, with the Hornets ranking dead last in defensive efficiency.
Dosunmu should exceed five-times value against this soft Charlotte defense and is a standout value at these low salaries.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Dallas Mavericks – $8,300 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Edwards has been magnificent against the Mavs, topping 60 DraftKings points in his last two matchups with the club, and he is back at home tonight after a four-game road trip. The wing has been 3.0 DraftKings PPG better at home than when on the road this season. Against this depleted Dallas’ team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency for the season, the Wolves’ implied team total is the fifth highest on the slate (117 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
When playing behind an implied team total of 115 points or higher this season, Edward is averaging 45.6 DraftKings PPG (17 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Jaden Hardy at Minnesota Timberwolves – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Opposite of Edwards, Hardy is rating as the No.1 value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA models. The guard should see a huge role tonight, with Luka Doncic (ankle), Kyrie Irving (thumb) and Dereck Lively II (nose) out, and Dante Exum (knee) and Derrick Jones Jr. (wrist) doubtful. FantasyLabs is projecting Hardy for 32 minutes of work tonight, which is plenty of time for him to destroy these low price tags, even in this difficult matchup versus the Wolves, who lead the league in defensive efficiency.
With those five players off the court this season, Hardy is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM, thanks to a 30% usage rate that ranks second for the Mavs in this situation, only trailing Tim Hardaway Jr., via the On/Off Tool.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at Washington Wizards – $8,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
At only $8,200 on DraftKings, Leonard is a player you must have some exposure to tonight. The two-time Finals MVP has scored at least 45 DraftKings in six of his last 10 starts, including a 63.25 DraftKings point triple-double versus the Lakers.
Leonard has handled a 26% usage rate this season and is a lock for at least 40 fantasy points in this terrific matchup with the Wizards.
Top Value: Tim Hardaway Jr. at Minnesota Timberwolves – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Hardaway should garner a massive role tonight that simply isn’t reflected in these price tags. Albeit a limited sample of only 39 minutes, with Doncic, Irving, Lively, Exum, and Jones off the court this season, Hardaway’s usage has leaped 17.6 percentage points to an insane 41.9%, resulting in 1.44 DraftKings PPM for the wing.
Hardaway is coming off a 51.5 DraftKings point outing versus a stout Magic defense on Monday and should effortlessly beat these price tags with his team even more understaffed tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Orlando Magic – $9,200 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
While the Magic rank fourth in defensive efficiency, Wembanyama gets the luxury of playing at home tonight for the fifth straight game. The rookie is contributing 52.1 DraftKings PPG during this four-game home stand and has been 5.3 DraftKings PPG better at home than when on the road overall. Wembanayama got up to 30 minutes in his last start, and with no game last night or tomorrow for the Spurs, he should see a similar workload tonight, with Orlando only favored by 4.5 points.
Wembanyama has supplied 51 DraftKings PPG in spreads of five points or fewer this season (13 games) and is slated to come with single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to FantasyLabs’ projections.
Top Value: P.J. Washington vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
With LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Gordon Hayward (calf) out, and Terry Rozier now in Miami, Washington started for the Hornets on Monday. The forward struggled, producing only 24 DraftKings points, but that was brutal matchup versus a Knicks’ team that ranks seventh in defensive efficiency. While he underperformed, Washington logged 35.1 minutes with the starting role.
With Charlotte expected to remain in that situation in terms of personnel tonight – Ball is doubtful and Hayward is out – Washington should see similar volume and improve with the hefty workload. Before Monday, the forward was averaging 39.4 DraftKings PPG for the previous five occasions in which he had logged over 30 minutes. The Bulls are playing their second game in two nights, and Washington is underpriced for his expected role tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $8,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Sengun erupted for 62.5 DraftKings points versus the Lakers on Monday and has now recorded at least 57 DraftKings points in four of his past six starts. The center is handling a 29.1% usage rate and scoring 1.4 DraftKings PPM in the new year, and while this Pelicans’ defense he is facing ranks 11th in efficiency, Sengun destroyed them for 64.75 DraftKings points back on December 23rd.
Tonight’s matchup presents a total of 231.5 points, and in totals of at least 230 points this season, Sengun is collecting 52.3 DraftKings PPG (six games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Nick Richards vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Before struggling in the blowout loss to the Knicks on Monday with only 19 DraftKings points, Richards exploded for 51.25 DraftKings points versus the Jazz, which was his fourth straight effort of at least 33 DraftKings points. The center has logged 32 minutes per game in his last five and should see no fewer than 30 minutes tonight, facing a Bulls team that prefers to have a natural center on the floor at all times.
On the back end of a back-to-back set, Chicago should be susceptible on defense tonight, and Richards should surpass 30 DraftKings points.
