On tap for Wednesday is a 10-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Atlanta Hawks – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
In an impressive win over the Celtics, Gilgeous-Alexander posted 57.5 DraftKings points last night, marking the eighth time in his last 10 starts the guard has scored at least 55 DraftKings points. Gilgeous-Alexander now finds himself in a much easier matchup, facing the Hawks, who rank fifth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, compared to Boston, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency and 20th in pace.
Tonight’s matchup in Atlanta carries the second-highest total on the slate (248.5 points), a tight two-point spread in favor of Oklahoma City, and the Thunder’s implied team total is the third largest on the board (124.5 points), via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Notably, this is both the highest total the Thunder have competed in and the largest implied team total they have played behind this season.
Ranking sixth in the league in usage this season (32.6%), Gilgeous-Alexander is producing an elite 1.6 DraftKings PPM, and the last time he was on the second leg of a back-to-back, the star erupted for 65.25 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks, so tired legs shouldn’t be a concern here for the 25-year-old.
Last but not least, in spreads under three points this season, Gilgeous-Alexander has been brilliant with 60.75 DraftKings PPG (10 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Josh Giddey at Atlanta Hawks – $5,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Giddey also impressed in last night’s win over Boston, recording 42.5 DraftKings points, and is a great target tonight. The guard is amassing 35.7 DraftKings PPG in his last three, and as noted above. Not only is tonight the highest total the Thunder have played in this season (248.5 points), but they boast their largest implied team total of the year (124.5 points).
Giddey has eclipsed 30 DraftKings points in six of the 10 games Oklahoma City has presented an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, and rostering both Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey in the same lineup tonight is a compelling GPP strategy that very few will consider.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Washington Wizards – $9,500 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Mitchell is the undisputed No.1 option at shooting guard tonight. Both Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee) remain sidelined, and Mitchell is averaging 55.4 DraftKings PPG for the four starts he has made without both those starters this season via the On/Off Tool. Plus, the guard is in a stellar spot, with the Wizards ranking second in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency.
Despite missing some key players, the Cavs carry their highest implied team total of the season tonight (124.5 points), and anything less than 50 fantasy points would be a major disappointment for Mitchell in this ideal situation.
Top Value: Jaden Ivey at Utah Jazz – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Ivey has started in seven straight games and has been productive with the role, amassing 35.6 DraftKings PPG, including three efforts over 40 DraftKings points. During this run, the combo-guard has logged 30.7 minutes per game and has handled a 22.1% usage rate.
Facing a Jazz defense that ranks 23rd in efficiency tonight, Ivey has a high chance to exceed 30 fantasy points.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at Phoenix Suns – $8,400 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
In his return from a four-game absence due to a hip injury, Leonard saw no limitations Monday and showed no signs of rust, delivering 49 DraftKings points across 33.4 minutes in a difficult matchup vs. the Heat, who rank third-to-last in pace.
The two-time Finals MVP has now posted at least 44 DraftKings in six of his past eight starts and is averaging a 27% usage rate for the season. Leonard now travels to Phoenix, and this matchup with the Suns is expected to be one of the most competitive affairs of the night, with the Clippers only favored by 3.5 points.
Leonard is providing 45.6 DraftKings PPG as a road favorite this season (eight games) and is especially appealing at only $8,400 on DraftKings, which is the cheapest he has been on the site in six games.
Top Value: Bojan Bogdanovic at Utah Jazz – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
The Pistons have improved recently, picking up a win and only losing one game by more than 11 points in their last seven, and the more competitive settings have unsurprisingly helped Bogdanovic. During this timeframe, the veteran has logged 36.6 minutes per game and has recorded at least 29 DraftKings points four times. At 24.3%, Bogdanovic ranks second only to Cade Cunningham in usage for the Pistons this season.
The Jazz rank 26th in defensive efficiency, and barring a huge blowout, the sharpshooter should top 30 fantasy points this evening.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Indiana Pacers – $11,900 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
Going against the Pacers for the fifth time this season, Antetokounmpo is a strong bet to lead this slate in fantasy points. The superstar has destroyed Indiana for 75.4 DraftKings PPG in four meetings this season, and his success hasn’t been a surprise, given this is the perfect matchup for Antetokounmpo.
The superstar leads the NBA points in the paint per game, and no team in the league is giving up more points in the paint than the Pacers this season. Furthermore, they lead the league in pace and rank 26th in defensive efficiency.
Tonight’s matchup carries the highest total on the slate by nearly 10 points (257.5 points), and the Bucks’ Implied team total is the largest on the board (130 points). Even at this huge price tag, Antetokounmpo is the No.1 power forward value on the slate.
Top Value: Chimezie Metu vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Kevin Durant (hamstring) will miss his second in a row tonight, and with the forward inactive Monday, Metu got the spot start and finished with 23.75 DraftKings points across 26 minutes vs. the Blazers. The Suns ran away with a 21-point win in this contest, and all of the starter’s minutes were cut short as a result. In a competitive setting, Metu would have likely been right around 30 minutes, which should be the case tonight, with the Clippers only favored by 3.5 points.
While this matchup isn’t great, with Los Angeles ranking 10th in defensive efficiency, Metu is a solid fantasy producer, and his expected role out trumps any concerns we should have about the matchup with him priced this low. This season, Metu is averaging 0.9 DraftKings PPM and 33.3 DraftKings PPG for the three occasions he has logged 25 minutes or more.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Jarrett Allen vs. Washington Wizards – $7,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
With Mobley sidelined, the Cavs have given Allen huge minutes as of late, and it has translated into some big numbers. With at least 33 minutes in four straight starts, Allen has generated 55.1 DraftKings PPG during this span. With Mobley still unavailable, the volume should continue for Allen tonight, and he should flourish in this gorgeous matchup vs. the Wizards.
Allen is averaging 44.4 DraftKings PPG for the 11 instances he has logged at least 30 minutes this season, and on top of Washington’s fast pace and major issues on defense, they are giving up the most rebounds and second most points in the paint in the league, making this perfect spot for Allen to post another mammoth double-double.
Top Value: Jakob Poeltl at Memphis Grizzlies – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
In the Raptors’ first game after dealing OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa to the Knicks, Poeltl saw a season-high 37 minutes Monday vs. the Cavs and finished with 39.25 DraftKings points. With both Anunoby and Achiuwa out of the picture, Toronto is rather thin up front right now, and Poeltl seeing another heavy workload tonight makes a ton of sense against this Grizzlies’ team that starts two natural big men.
Poeltl collects 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Anunoby and Achiuwa off the floor and is very underpriced if he sees anything close to the minutes he saw on Monday.
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