For Wednesday night, DraftKings’ main slate will feature the first eight games of the night, while FanDuel’s will only include the first six. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball at Detroit Pistons – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
With Terry Rozier traded to Miami, Ball should flourish tonight against the Pistons. Detroit is the second-worst defense in the league in terms of efficiency, and for the nine starts he has made without Rozier this season, Ball is amassing 58.1 DraftKings PPG. Overall, with Rozier off the floor this season, Ball’s usage and assist rates have increased 3.0 and 3.4 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.6 DraftKings PPM for the guard, via the On/Off Tool.
Ball is a great value at less than $10K on both DraftKings and FanDuel and can be attacked with confidence in all formats.
Top Value: Mike Conley at Washington Wizards – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Rating as the No.1 point guard value on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA Models, Conley is a sharp target tonight. The veteran hasn’t played since Saturday after being rested Monday and gets one of the premier matchups in fantasy basketball, with the Wizards ranking first in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency. Conley has topped 30 DraftKings points in three of his past six starts and in this elite spot tonight, the Wolves carry an implied team total of 120.5 points, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
For the six occasions Conley has played behind an implied team total of at least 118 points this season, he is generating 27.1 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Update: Conley was a late addition to the injury report and is now questionable with an illness. Barring any limitations, the veteran will be a strong play for all the reasons above if he is active. On the other hand, if Conley sits, Nickiel Alexander-Walker will likely start and be a tremendous punt play. With Conley inactive Monday, Alexander-Walker started and posted 24.5 DraftKings points across 30.1 minutes vs. the Hornets, bringing his average with Conley inactive this season up to 27 DraftKings PPG (two games).
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Milwaukee Bucks – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
One of the main reasons why the Bucks just fired Adrian Griffin yesterday is their terrible defense, which ranks 22nd in efficiency. Specifically, they have been very susceptible to guards, and Mitchell has proven that twice already this season, scoring at least 55 DraftKings points in each of his first two meetings with Milwaukee. The 27-year-old faces the Bucks again tonight, and his success against the club should absolutely continue. Mitchell has recorded at least 53 DraftKings points in four of his past five starts, and this game carries a total of 236 points, which is high for this slow Cavs’ team, who ranks 25th in pace, compared to Milwaukee, who ranks third.
In totals of at least 230 points this season, Mitchell is supplying 52.2 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Luke Kennard at Miami Heat – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
With the Grizzlies extremely depleted, Kennard has been one of their primary options recently, scoring 29.3 DraftKings points in 31.3 minutes per game across his last three starts. The sharpshooter has seen a 20.2% usage rate during this stretch, and while this is a less-than-ideal matchup with the Heat ranking 11th in defensive efficiency, Kennard is just too cheap for his current role, especially with Santi Aldama (out, knee) joining the Grizzlies’ crowded injury report tonight.
Kennard should be able to out-produce these current salaries and is one of the best pay-down options at shooting guard.
Update: Kennard (thigh) has been downgraded to questionable, and if he sits, Zaire Williams will likely enter the starting lineup, which would make him a viable punt play. Plus, Vince Williams Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr. would see their already strong usage rates grow even higher, certainly adding them to the GPP conversation.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Khris Middleton vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $6,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
With FantasyLabs projecting Middleton for very low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, the wing is a terrific GPP target. Middleton has recorded over 36 DraftKings points in four of his past six starts and posted 39.25 DraftKings points vs. the Cavs back on December 29th. Logging over 30 minutes in 11 of his past 14 starts, Middleton is no longer under a minutes limit, and his usage has been at a strong 24.3% this season, even with Damian Lillard in town.
The Bucks boast one of the highest implied team totals of the night at 121.75 points, and Middleton is an excellent contrarian way to gain a share of their offense.
Top Value: Brandon Miller at Detroit Pistons – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
Miller has come alive as of late, scoring at least 37 DraftKings points in three straight starts with a 24% usage rate during this time. Now, with Rozier traded to the Heat, Miller’s role should grow even further, and his encouraging play should continue against this weak Pistons defense, which ranks second-to-last in efficiency.
In addition to Rozier being traded, Gordon Hayward (calf) and Mark Williams (back) remain out, and with these three off the court this season, Miller’s usage has risen to 25%, and he has amassed 0.9 DraftKings PPM via the On/Off Tool.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,000 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
While viable on both sites, Antetokounmpo is a no-brainer at only $11,000 on DraftKings. The former MVP ranks third in the NBA in usage rate this season (33.7%) and is averaging 60.2 DraftKings PPG, which is well over what he needs to reach 5x value at his current salary on DraftKings. Plus, Antetokounmpo dominated the Cavs for 63.5 DraftKings points in his one matchup vs. the squad this season, and as noted above, the Bucks boast a large implied team total of 121.75 points this evening.
For the 24 instances he has played behind an implied team total of 120 points or more this season, Antetokounmpo has exceeded 60 DraftKings points 16 times.
Top Value: Naz Reid at Washington Wizards – $4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Especially at only $4,900 on DraftKings, Reid is an appealing GPP play. FantasyLabs is forecasting the big man for little ownership tonight, and this is a perfect spot for him to produce off the bench.
On top of leading the league in pace and ranking 28th in defensive efficiency, Washington is allowing the most rebounds and second-most points in the paint this season. Reid has scored over 26 DraftKings points in six of his past 10 and could be a real game-changer in GPPs tonight.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $8,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Similar to Antetouknmpo, while Sengun is a strong consideration for both sites, he is an obvious play on DraftKings. Sengun’s salary was all the way up to $8,900 on DraftKings just a few weeks ago, and the center has been a force as of late, providing 58.2 DraftKings PPG in his last three starts.
For tonight, Sengun faces a Blazers team that ranks 19th in defensive efficiency and is giving up the fourth most points in the paint. Plus, Portland is on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Jalen Green (illness) is questionable for Houston. With the shooting guard off the floor this season, Sengun’s usage has increased by 3.2 percentage points, and he has contributed 1.44 DraftKings PPM via the On/Off Tool.
Nevertheless, even if Green does suit up, Sengun should tally a huge double-double against the Blazers and is a threat for over 50 fantasy points. Even at his $8,300 salary, Sengun is the No.1 center value available on DraftKings tonight in our NBA models.
Top Value: Xavier Tillman at Miami Heat – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
With Aldama out tonight, the Grizzlies should opt for a bigger lineup, with Tillman at center and Jackson Jr. moving back to power forward. If this is the case, Tillman will be a strong value at these salaries. For the last four times the center has started, Tillman has responded with 31.3 DraftKings points in 33.3 minutes per game. The big man collects 0.93 DraftKings PPM with Aldama off the floor, and while the Heat are a stout defense, they are a matchup that requires size, which should result in big minutes for Tillman.
These salaries don’t reflect a likely starting role for Tillman, and he needs to be attacked if named a starter tonight.
