For Wednesday, DraftKings and FanDuel’s main slates will feature the first eight games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Editor’s note: Warriors-Jazz has been postponed.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Mitchell checks all the boxes tonight. The guard is in tremendous form, producing 65.1 DraftKings PPG in his last two starts, and is in a terrific spot tonight, hosting the Bucks, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency and fifth in pace. This is a massive pace increase for the Cavs, who rank 24th in pace, and just recently, on December 29th, Mitchell destroyed Milwaukee for 61 DraftKings points.
This game’s total is the fourth largest on the slate at 236.5 points – via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page – which is a high total for this slow Cleveland team. Mitchell has seen a usage rate north of 30% in six of his past seven starts and is amassing 52.7 DraftKings PPG for the five occasions he has competed in a total of at least 235 points this season, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Miles McBride vs. Houston Rockets – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Jalen Brunson (questionable, calf) is an important name to monitor tonight. If the guard misses his third straight, McBride will be an easy choice at these price tags despite this difficult matchup vs. the Rockets, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency.
As Brunson’s replacement in the Knicks’ starting five for the last two games, McBride has scored 35 DraftKings points in 37 minutes per game. The third-year guard has seen a 19.5% usage rate as a starter and has racked up five defensive stats in these past two games.
McBride collects 0.94 DraftKings PPM sans Brunson this season and is just too cheap if the guard remains unavailable.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Detroit Pistons – $8,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Edwards (questionable, knee) is a viable option on both sites if he suits up, but is a value that needs to be utilized at only $8,300 on DraftKings, which is the cheapest the wing has been on the site this season. Edwards’ salary on DraftKings was just up to $9,100 three games ago, and he is fresh off an impressive 55.75 DraftKings points performance vs. the Clippers, so there really isn’t an explanation for the dramatic decrease.
Edwards ranks fourth in the NBA in usage rate this season (31.7%) and visits the lowly Pistons tonight, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency. The Wolves carry a 118-point implied team total and when he has played behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season, Edwards is amassing 46.2 DraftKings PPG (12 games), via the Trends Tool.
Now, if Edwards sits, Nickeil Alexnader-Walker will be a strong punt play. In the three contests Edwards has missed this season, Alexander-Walker has generated 26.8 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Immanuel Quickley vs. Miami Heat – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Quickley has fit in great with the Raptors, providing 35 DraftKings PPG in his first eight starts as the club’s new point guard. During this time, Qucikley has led Toronto with a 23.5% usage rate, and he has also handled a 26.1% assist percentage, which is a huge increase in his assist rate in New York. The Heat rank 10th in defensive efficiency, but Quickley’s new role with the Raptors out trumps any concerns we should have about this matchup, especially with him on his home floor.
Quickley has been 2.5 DraftKings PPG better at home than when on the road this season and should exceed 5x value tonight.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Tatum has been excellent, topping 50 DraftKings in five of his last seven starts, and is in an outstanding spot, hosting the Spurs, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency and fifth in pace. No team in action Wednesday carries a higher implied team total than the Celtics (126.75 points). Tatum has been brilliant when playing behind an implied team total of at least 125 points this season, generating 57.4 DraftKings PPG (four games).
Also, do note that Kristaps Porzingis (knee), Jrue Holiday (elbow), and Derrick White (ankle) are all questionable, and if any of these starters sit, Tatum’s role and upside will become even stronger. Holiday has regularly played through this questionable tag due to the elbow injury, but White just injured his ankle late Monday night, and Porzingis is always a player that Celtics like to rest when possible, so the latter two certainly have a chance to sit tonight.
Tatum’s usage has increased at least 2.0 percentage points with either Porzingis or White off the floor this season, and with both of them off, his usage has jumped 4.2 percentage points, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Joe Ingles at Atlanta Hawks – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Rating as a top-three value on the slate in our NBA models for both sites tonight, Ingles is an appealing punt. With Franz Wagner (ankle) out, Ingles has logged over 20 minutes in back-to-back games and has supplied 21.4 DraftKings PPG. Wagner will remain sidelined tonight and in outstanding spot vs. the Hawks, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency and third in pace, Ingles has a strong chance to surpass 20 DraftKings points.
Due to slight increases to all his rates, Ingles’ production increases to 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Wagner off the court this season, and he recorded 22.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with the Hawks back in November, even with Wagner active.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,000 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
There are many players on DraftKings tonight who have oddly seen dramatic decreases in their salaries, and Antetokounmpo is one of the most notable. After posting a triple-double worth 63 DraftKings points vs. the Kings on Sunday, the forward’s salary on DraftKings has dropped $600, and this is the cheapest he has been in eight games, making him a tough value to overlook.
The Cavs rank fifth in defensive efficiency this season, but Antetokounmpo had no issues against them a few weeks ago, recording 63.5 DraftKings points. Plus, the Bucks boast an implied team total of 120 points tonight and when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, the superstar is supplying 63.2 DraftKings PPG this season (23 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Caleb Martin at Toronto Raptors – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
With Jaime Jaquez Jr. (groin) and Kevin Love (knee) missing their second straight tonight, Martin has merit for GPPs. With Jacquez Jr. and Love inactive Monday vs. the Nets, Martin logged 33.6 minutes in the overtime win, including the entire fourth quarter and extra period. The veteran only finished with 18.25 DraftKings points but should improve tonight, with him likely to see over 30 minutes again.
Martin produces 0.8 DraftKings PPM with both Jacquez Jr. and Love off the floor and is averaging 30.4 DraftKings for the 12 occasions he has logged a minimum of 25 minutes this season.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun at New York Knicks – $7,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Sengun is another player who has seen their price tag on DraftKings drop far too low. His price at $7,900 is the cheapest the center has been on DraftKings in 28 games and is a $600 decrease from his last start, which was an impressive 43.25 DraftKings point outing vs. Joel Embiid and the 76ers, who rank fourth in defensive efficiency. Sengun faces another stout defense in the Knicks tonight, who rank 11th in defensive efficiency, but his salary on DraftKings is so low that he would be a strong consideration in any matchup.
Sengun is leading the Rockets with a 28.7% usage rate this season and has only failed to score over 40 DraftKings points twice in his last 10 starts. The Rockets are on the road tonight and the Knicks are favored by five points, and as a road underdog this season, Sengun has been terrific with 47.3 DraftKings PPG (15 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Goga Bitadze at Atlanta Hawks – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Bitadze just tallied a double-double of 38.75 DraftKings points vs. the Hawks last Sunday and is underpriced for tonight’s rematch with the club. The center has posted at least 24 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts and is amassing 30.1 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with Atlanta this season. In addition to the Hawks ranking 27th in defensive efficiency and third in pace, they are giving up the fourth most points in the paint, making this an elite spot for centers.
This tilt’s total is set at 232 points and for the last five instances Bitadzae has competed in a total of at least 230 points, the big man has produced 27 DraftKings PPG.
