On tap for tonight is an eight-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Miami Heat – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Gilgeous-Alexander has been brilliant, scoring at least 54 DraftKings points in 10 of his past 11 starts. For the season, the guard is generating 1.6 DraftKings PPM, thanks to a 32.6% usage rate, which ranks fifth in the NBA. While the Heat play at the third slowest pace in the league, their defense has taken a step back this season, ranking 14th in efficiency and via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page, this tilt presents a healthy total of 234.5 points and a tight spread of 4.5-points, in favor of the Thunder.
Producing 58.1 DraftKings PPG in spreads under five points this season (20 games) – via the Trends Tool – Gilgeous-Alexander is always a sharp target in competitive settings, and he could get slightly overlooked tonight with the general public scared of a matchup with the Heat.
Top Value: T.J. McConnell vs. Washington Wizards – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Both DraftKings and FanDuel aggressively increased McConnell’s salaries to reflect life without Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring), but it wasn’t enough, and the veteran is a great target at these price points against the Wizards, who rank second in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency.
You can’t find a better matchup in fantasy basketball than Washington. The Pacers carry the highest implied team total on the slate (130.25 points) despite missing their star in Haliburton. This game’s total is also the highest on the board (253.5 points).
Starter or not, McConnell should operate as Indiana’s main point guard tonight and flourish in this elite spot. The 31-year-old is averaging 35 DraftKings PPG for the 23 contests he has played without Haliburton over the last two seasons, and with the guard off the court this season, McConnell is leading the Pacers with an outstanding 1.4 DraftKings PPM, which is attributed to a massive 48.2% assist rate, via the On/Off Tool.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Terry Rozier vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
With LaMelo Ball (out, foot), Gordon Hayward (out, calf), and PJ Washington (doubtful, foot) all out Monday, Rozier erupted for 58.25 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls, marking his third effort over 50 DraftKings points in his last four starts. Charlotte is expected to remain without those three players again tonight. Coming to town is a Kings team that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace and is playing their second game in two nights.
This a huge pace increase for this Charlotte team that ranks 20th in pace and Rozier is a terrific high-end value in this spot, that brings a ceiling well over 50 fantasy points. With Ball, Hayward, and Washington off the court this season, Rozier’s assist percentage has increased by 4.5 percentage points to 35.8%.
Top Value: Jaden Ivey vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
With Cade Cunningham (knee) missing his first game of the season last night, Ivey posted 40.25 DraftKings points vs. the Kings. In this start, the guard led the Pistons in usage (31.3%) and minutes (32.4). Cunningham will remain out tonight, and Ivey is in an even better spot than last night, taking on the Spurs, who rank fourth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency.
This game’s total is the third highest on the slate (238.5 points) and San Antonio is only favored by 2.5-points. Ivey’s usage rises 3.3 percentage points to 25.9% with Cunningham off the floor this season, and he is a threat to top 40 DraftKings points for the second game in a row.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Tatum is coming off a 68.75 DraftKings points explosion Saturday vs. the Pacers, which is the third time in his last five starts that he has surpassed 60 DraftKings points. Tatum is shooting 54.8% from the field and 55.6% from beyond the arc in his past five starts and brings great upside in this form tonight, regardless of this matchup vs. the Wolves. Minnesota leads the league in defensive efficiency, but they just played last night and aren’t expected to arrive in Boston until this afternoon due to weather travel delays.
Tatum is an excellent GPP target that should come with low ownership, given the Wolves are the highest-ranked defense in the league, and his fantasy stock would become even stronger if the Celtics end up being shorthanded. Kristaps Porzingis (knee), Jrue Holiday (elbow), and Al Horford (illness) are all questionable, and any of their absences would result in a bump for Tatum, most notably Holiday.
With the guard off the court this season, Tatum’s usage increases by 3.7 percentage points, and he scores 1.6 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Bennedict Mathurin vs. Washington Wizards – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
While worth targeting on both sites, Mathurin is an elite GPP target on DraftKings, with FantasyLabs projecting him for essentially no ownership on the site. With Haliburton exiting early Monday, Mathurin stepped up and finished with 41 DraftKings points across 29.1 minutes off the bench in the win over the Celtics. The wing has now seen at least 29 minutes in back-to-back games and should continue to see large minutes going forward with Haliburton on the shelf, regardless of the fact that Mathurin is a reserve.
The 21-year-old leads the Pacers with a 26.6% usage rate with Haliburton off the floor this season – which is a 3.5 percentage point upgrade from his season average – and supplies 1.0 DraftKings PPM in this situation. Mathurin should thrive against the lowly Wizards and is an appealing way to gain exposure to Indiana’s slate-high implied team total (130.25 points).
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Tobias Harris at Atlanta Hawks – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Harris is in a terrific position to beat these salaries with ease. Joel Embiid (knee), who leads the NBA in usage, will be out tonight, and with the reigning MVP inactive this season, Harris’ usage has increased by 3.9 percentage points, and he has provided 34.6 DraftKings PPG (seven games). Plus, the forward gets the luxury of playing the Hawks, who rank fifth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Even with Embiid sidelined, this tilt’s total ranks second on the slate (245.5 points). Furthermore, Atlanta is only favored by 1.5 points, making this a tremendous game environment. Harris went off for 52 DraftKings points vs. the Hawks back in November, even with Embiid active, and has a similar ceiling tonight.
Top Value: Jalen Johnson vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Opposite of Harris, Johnson is also standing out in elite setting between the Hawks and 76ers. The forward has topped 40 DraftKings in three of his first six starts back since the extended absence due to a wrist injury, and this is going to be a much easier matchup than usual with Embiid absent. Philadelphia’s defensive rating drops to 114.4 with the center off the court this season, which would rank 16th in the league if it was their average for the season.
As noted above, the Hawks are only 1.5-point favorites tonight – which is tied for the smallest spread of the slate – and in spreads under three points this season, Johnson is amassing 36.1 DraftKings PPG (11 games), via the Trends Tool.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Charlotte Hornets – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
The Hornets are always a terrific spot to attack for centers, and Sabonis shouldn’t disappoint tonight. The center erupted for a triple-double of 77.5 DraftKings points last night vs. the Pistons and is now producing 61.5 DraftKings PPG in his last six starts. Charlotte ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency, and they are allowing the eighth most points in the paint.
Sabonis has exposed the Hornets for at least 50 DraftKings points in five of his last seven matchups with the club and is one of the safest, most lucrative options on the slate.
Top Value: Paul Reed at Atlanta Hawks – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Reed should start in place of Embiid tonight and could easily have his best outing sans the center. In addition to the Hawks ranking fifth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, they are yielding the fourth most points in the paint. This is by far the best matchup the 76ers have seen without Embiid this season, and in those eight contests the big man has missed, Reed has flashed strong upside, scoring over 34 DraftKings twice and over 40 DraftKings points once.
Over 40 DraftKings is absolutely a possibility for the center in this beautiful spot, and Reed is a great target for all formats at less than $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
