On tap for tonight is a seven-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Boston Celtics – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Young has been awesome, eclipsing 50 DraftKings points in five of his last six starts, and is a great target at these price points despite facing the Celtics, who rank third in defensive efficiency. The guard posted 50.25 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with Boston and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (244.5 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Plus, Clint Capela (adductor) is out for the Hawks. With the center off the court this season, Young’s usage has increased a team-high 2.8 percentage points, lifting him to 1.5 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Young is amassing 53.1 DraftKings PPG for the three starts he has made without Capela this season and should score at least 50 fantasy points tonight.
Update: Dejounte Murray (back) was a late addition to the injury report and is now questionable. The guard’s absence would further solidify Young as a top option on the slate, given with Murray and Capela off the court this season, Young’s usage has risen 3.3 percentage points, and his assist rate has leaped 8.4 percentage points.
Top Value: Terry Rozier vs. San Antonio Spurs – $6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Rozier has found his groove with the Heat, supplying 33.8 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts. Since joining Miami, Rozier has handled a 21% usage rate and has led the club with a 27.6% assist percentage. After posting 38.5 DraftKings points vs. a Magic defense that ranks fourth in efficiency last night, Rozier is in a much easier spot tonight, going against the Spurs, who ranks fifth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency.
The guard’s impressive play with the Heat should continue in this juicy matchup, and Rozier is an especially good option at only $6,000 on DraftKings, which is a huge $700 decrease from three games ago.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Washington Wizards – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Mitchell, by a huge gap, presents the highest ceiling among shooting guards in our NBA models and is a player worth attacking GPPs. The 27-year-old gets arguably the best matchup in the NBA, with the Wizards leading the league in pace and ranking 27th in defensive efficiency. The Cavs carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (122.5 points), and this game’s total is the fourth-largest on the board (234 points), both of which are high numbers for this slow Cleveland team that ranks 23rd in pace.
When playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, Mitchell has supplied 54.4 DraftKings PPG (seven games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Kevin Huerter vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Hosting the Pistons, who rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency, the Kings boast the highest implied team total on the slate (127.5 points), and Huerter is one of the best ways to gain a share of Sacramento’s offense at these affordable salaries. The shooting guard has recorded at least 26 DraftKings points in seven of his past 11 starts – including two efforts over 45 DraftKings points – while logging 31.9 minutes per game during this stretch, which is well above his 25-minute per-game average for the season.
Huerter is underpriced for the recent elevated volume he has seen and is one of the best values on the board in this great spot vs. the lowly Pistons.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Tatum should feast in this elite spot vs. the Hawks, who rank third in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency. The forward posted 54.75 DraftKings points vs. Atlanta back in November, marking his fifth effort of at least 52 DraftKings points in his last seven matchups with the team. Tonight’s matchup in Boston carries the highest total on the slate (244.5 points), and the Celtics present the second-largest implied team total on the board (127.25 points).
Tatum is generating 51.9 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (21 games) and brings a top-three ceiling on the slate in our NBA models.
Top Value: Caleb Martin vs. San Antonio Spurs – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Pushing Haywood Highsmith to the bench, Martin started for the Heat last night and finished with 20.75 DraftKings points in the 26-point blowout win over the Magic. The veteran finished a +14 in the box score and certainly would have seen more than 24.4 minutes if this game wasn’t such a lopsided affair. Martin has now topped 20 DraftKings points in three of his past five and should remain a starter tonight, considering the positive results Miami saw with him in the first unit Tuesday.
As noted above, the Spurs are an excellent matchup, ranking fifth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, and Martin should have zero issues out-producing these low price tags in this juicy spot.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Kuminga at Philadelphia 76ers – $7,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
As some of the Warriors’ veterans struggle to make an impact, the team has decided to give Kuminga a larger role, and it has translated into great numbers for the former lottery pick, with him amassing 40.4 DraftKings PPG in his last 10. Kuminga has started in the last five games, and since being inserted into the first unit, the forward has seen 37.2 minutes per game and a 24.7% usage rate, both of which rank second for Golden State during this run, trailing only Stephen Curry.
There is a clear game plan for Kuminga to be one of Golden State’s main players, and these salaries simply don’t reflect this new role. Going against the Joel Embiid-less 76ers tonight, Kuminga is a terrific target that isn’t expected to gain much attention. According to FantasyLabs projections, the forward is expected to come with single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Onyeka Okongwu at Boston Celtics – $5,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
While overpriced on FanDuel, Okongwu is worth rostering at less than $6,000 on DraftKings. Clint Capela (adductor) is out tonight, meaning Okongwu will start at center for the Hawks. For the three other instances Capela has been inactive this season, Okongwu is collecting 30 DraftKings points in 33.9 minutes per game.
This matchup with Boston boasts the highest total on the slate (244.5 points), and Okongwu has the potential for a double-double in this expected shootout.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Detroit Pistons – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Sabonis comes into this excellent matchup vs. the Pistons scoring at least 55 DraftKings points in four of his last five starts – including three triple-doubles – and should continue to dominate tonight. As mentioned above, the Kings boast the highest implied team total on the slate (127.5 points) against this Detroit club that ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency. When he faced this team a few weeks ago, Sabonis erupted for a triple-double of 77.5 DraftKings points, marking his highest fantasy score of the season.
The center is providing an incredible 61.5 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 125 points this season (five games) and is the No.1 option on the slate Wednesday.
Top Value: Paul Reed vs. Golden State Warriors – $6,200 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Reed is expected to see minimal ownership tonight and is a great gamble for GPPs. The center is coming off back-to-back quiet starts, but his playing time was limited in both these contests due to blowouts and the fact that he was dealing with an illness. Reed told the media this morning he is feeling “a lot better,” and in a competitive tilt vs. the Warriors tonight – Golden State is only favored by 4.5 points – the big man should get back to his normal workload and bounce back.
Before these past two games, Reed had generated 33.1 DraftKings PPG in his previous six starts for Embiid. The Warriors rank 21st in defensive efficiency, and Reed is a threat for over 40 fantasy points.
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