NBA

NBA DFS (Wednesday, Feb. 14): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
Feb 14, 2024

For the last full slate before the All-Star break, DraftKings’ main slate will feature the first 12 games of the night, while FanDuel will include all 13 of Wednesday night’s games. The one extra game FanDuel’s slate features is the Clippers vs. the Warriors, which is the final contest of the night.

The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. San Antonio Spurs – $12,100 DraftKings, $12,800 FanDuel

Doncic is the unanimous top-option point guard tonight. The guard is generating an absurd 71.5 DraftKings PPG in his last 10 starts and meets a Spurs team he has dominated for 75.6 DraftKings PPG in two matchups this season. Ranking fifth in pace and 24^th in defensive efficiency, San Antonio is one of the best matchups to attack in the league, and the Mavs’ implied team total is the highest on the slate in this spot (126.75 points). Dallas will be at home, where Doncic has been 3.1 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road this season.

This game also carries the second largest total on the board (242.5 points) and for the 15 occasions he has competed in a total of at least 240 points this season, Doncic is amassing 68.32 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.

Top Value: Keyonte George vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $4,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

George struggled as a starter Monday, finishing with only 11.75 DraftKings points in the blowout loss to the Warriors, but is expected to remain a starter going forward. The rookie did see an encouraging 29 minutes and would have likely seen even more work if this tilt was a lopsided 22-point loss.

In a 5.5-point spread tonight vs. the Lakers – who are expected to be without LeBron James (ankle) – George should see nothing less than 30 minutes and should bounce back. This tilt presents the third-highest total on the slate (240.5 points), and for the 23 instances the rookie has logged at least 25 minutes this season, George has responded with 27.9 DraftKings PPG.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel

Bradley Beal (hamstring) will be inactive tonight, and Booker is in a terrific spot vs. the Pistons, who rank 28^th in defensive efficiency. The shooting guard’s assist rate increases by 4.7 percentage points with Beal off the court, and the Suns boast the third-highest implied team total on the slate against this Detroit team that is playing their second game in two nights (123.75 points).

Booker is supplying 51.2 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or more this season (16 games) and is a sharp, contrarian spend, with FantasyLabs forecasting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Top Value: Duncan Robinson at Philadelphia 76ers – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel

With Jimmy Butler (personal), Terry Rozier (knee), and Josh Richardson (shoulder) sidelined last night, Robinson started for the Heat and lit the Bucks up for a season-best 43.25 DraftKings points in only 26.2 minutes. Miami won this contest by a convincing 26 points, and the sharpshooter would have certainly seen more minutes in a competitive setting. Robinson logged 15.6 first-half minutes at the start, putting him on pace for over 30 minutes in a close game.

Butler, Rozier, and Richardson are all expected to remain unavailable tonight, and with the 76ers only favored by 3.5 points, Robinson should find himself in the 30-35-minute range and easily outproduce these low salaries. With Joel Embiid (knee) on the shelf, Philadelphia ranks as the fifth-worst defense in the league over their last three games.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Brooklyn Nets – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel

Tatum faces the Nets tonight on his home floor after exposing the team for 75 DraftKings points last night in Brooklyn. The All-Star has not just been a scoring machine, but Tatum has been very active on the glass, posting three straight double-doubles, resulting in 66.8 DraftKings PPG during this span. Tatum has topped 50 DraftKings points in two of his three matchups with the Nets this season and should do so again tonight.

The Celtics sport an implied team total of 121 points tonight and when playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or more this season, Tatum is averaging 52.2 DraftKings PPG (23 games), via the Trends Tool.

Top Value: Royce O’Neale vs. Detroit Pistons – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel

After Beal got injured early last night, O’Neale finished with 32.5 DraftKings points across 29.4 minutes in the win over Kings. The veteran should see a similar workload tonight vs. the Pistons, who rank 28^th in defensive efficiency and are on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Filling in when one of their starters hurt and providing a veteran presence in these types of situations is exactly why Phoenix went out and traded for O’Neale at the deadline. His current salaries by no means reflect the type of role he should see tonight and O’Neale is an excellent punt play for all formats. For the last five times, the veteran has received at least 25 minutes, and he is amassing 28.2 DraftKings PPG.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel

Bridges is an elite spend tonight vs. the Hawks. The forward has been thriving as the Hornets’ main option with LaMelo Ball (ankle) sidelined, scoring over 49 DraftKings points in four of his past five starts. During this time, Bridges has led the Hornets with a 26.1% usage rate, which is a notable increase from his 24.7% average for the season. The forward has also led his team with 37.2 minutes per game.

Atlanta is an elite matchup, with them ranking second in pace and second-to-last in defensive efficiency, and this game’s total is set at 238.5 points, which is a high number for this slow Hornets’ squad. Bridges has a ceiling near 60 fantasy points in this spot and is especially tough to overlook at only $8,100 on FanDuel.

Top Value: Nikola Jovic at Philadelphia 76ers – $3,100 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel

Jovic is a must-play at these cheap salaries. With the Heat missing Butler, Rozier, and Richardson last night, Jovic was inserted into the Heat’s starting five and was one of the main reasons Miami defeated the Bucks by 26 points. The forward posted 41.75 DraftKings points across 30.3 minutes while finishing a +14 in the box score. Jovic sat the final five minutes of this game and would have seen even more playing time if this game was close.

The 20-year-old should log around 35 minutes in a tight 3.5-point spread vs. the 76ers tonight, who, as noted above, rank fifth-to-last in defensive efficiency over their last three games. Jovic is producing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Butler, Rozier, and Richardson off the court this season – via the On/Off Tool – and is amassing 30.9 DraftKings PPG when given at least 25 minutes of action (four games).

NBA DFS Center Picks

Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Sacramento Kings – $11,300 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel

Jokic is the No.1 play on the slate tonight. The big man will be back at home tonight after a three-game road trip, and the Nuggets are likely to be without Jamal Murray (leg). While the guard is listed as questionable, Denver HC Mike Malone said he anticipated the guard to be doubtful after Monday’s loss to the Bucks, and with this being the Nuggets’ last game before the All-Star break, giving Murray the night off is the logical move. Jokic is generating 64.6 DraftKings PPG with Murray inactive this season (13 games), and with the guard off the floor, Jokic is supplying a whopping 1.93 DraftKings PPM, which is attributed to his usage and assist rates rising 3.3 and 8.0 percentage points, respectively.

Jokic has already exposed the Kings for 66.9 DraftKings PPG in two meetings this season, and Sacramento’s defense, which ranks 20th in efficiency, should be even weaker than usual, with the club coming off a tough five-point loss in Phoenix last night. Jokic brings the highest ceiling on the slate in our NBA models by over 10 fantasy points and is an excellent value at these price points.

Top Value: Bruno Fernando at Charlotte Hornets – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel

Fernando should start at center for the Hawks tonight with both Clint Capela (adductor) and Onyeka Okongwu (toe) sidelined, and this is a tremendous matchup, with the Hornets ranking dead last in defensive efficiency. The Hawks carry the sixth highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (122 points) and this contest’s total is the fourth largest on the slate (238.5 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.

Fernando is producing 1.1 DraftKings PPM this season, and our projections are slating him for 25.5 minutes tonight. Fernando is providing 29.4 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has logged a minimum of at least 20 minutes, and he will be an elite punt play if named the Hawks’ starting center tonight, as expected.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.