After last night’s NBA Cup Group play matchups, there are six games on the menu Wednesday, and notably, six of the 12 teams competing tonight are playing their second game in two nights. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $8,800
This is the lowest Young has been priced on DraftKings this season, and the guard is a terrific target in this likely shootout with the Bucks. By 10 points, this game’s total is the highest of this six-game slate (236.5 points), and Milwaukee is only favored by four points. The Hawks carry the third-highest implied team total on the board in this elite setting (116.25 points), and the Bucks should be sloppy on the defensive end, with this being their second game in two nights.
Young averaged 51.1 DraftKings PPG per game in two meetings with Milwaukee last season, and he enters Wednesday’s matchup as the NBA’s leader in assists. Young is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has scored at least 46 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts. Furthermore, for the six occasions he has competed in a spread of less than five points this season, Young has eclipsed 50 DraftKings points four times. In our ShotQuality projections, the guard is rating as a top-three value on the slate.
Top Value: Kris Dunn vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $4,000
Kevin Porter Jr. (ankle) has missed two straight games and in the likely event that the guard remains sidelined Wednesday, Dunn will be a viable punt play for all formats. With Porter Jr. unavailable for the last two, Dunn has supplied 20.6 DraftKings PPG.
The veteran produces 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Porter Jr. off the court, and while this matchup with the Timberwolves is less than ideal – Minnesota ranks seventh in defensive efficiency – Dunn will have a decent chance to top 20 DraftKings points if the Clippers are without Porter Jr.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown vs. Detroit Pistons – $8,200
Brown is a viable play to begin with, but if either of Jayson Tatum (questionable, knee) or Jrue Holiday (questionable, knee) sit, Brown will become one of the best expensive options on the slate. In the two starts he has made sans Holiday this season, Brown has generated 46.6 DraftKings PPG. Tatum, on the other hand, has yet to miss a game this season, but with the forward off the floor this season, Brown’s usage has increased 3.3 percentage points to 33.9%, and he has produced a team-high 1.4 DraftKings PPM via the On/Off Tool.
Despite having two starters questionable, the Celtics carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate (117.25 points) against a Pistons team that is on the second leg of a back-to-back. Brown will bring a massive ceiling if either Tatum or Holiday are out, and in the event that both are inactive, Brown will be a must-play.
Top Value: Kelly Oubre Jr. vs. Orlando Magic – $5,300
Despite this tough matchup vs. the Magic and their No. 2 ranked defense, Oubre Jr. is a solid value play tonight, with both Joel Embiid (injury management) and Paul George (injury management) out for the 76ers. With both these starters inactive this season, Oubre Jr. has supplied 28.6 DraftKings points in 32.8 minutes per game (eight games).
With a 22% usage rate – which is a 2.4 percentage point life from his average – Oubre Jr. scores 0.84 DraftKings PPM with Embiid and George off the court this season, via the On/Off Tool. Oubre Jr.’s salary is slightly depressed for this situation and a performance over 30 DraftKings points is on the table for the veteran.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Franz Wagner at Philadelphia 76ers – $9,800
Wagner continues to play at All-Star level for the Magic with Paolo Banchero (oblique) sidelined and is a viable spend Wednesday. In the 18 starts Wagner has made without Banchero this season, Wagner is providing 45.7 DraftKings PPG. The wing has led Orlando in usage (32.2%) and assist rate (32.3%) in those contests, and this 76ers defense has been suspect this season, ranking 16th in efficiency.
This game presents a modest 209.5-point total, but this should be a competitive affair throughout, with the Magic only favored by 3.5 points. Wagner has been slightly better when competing as a favorite this season, and his ceiling is the highest on the slate among small forwards in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value:
Nickeil Alexander-Walker at Los Angeles Clippers – $3,900
Alexander-Walker is one of the best punts available for this six-game slate that is lacking appealing value plays. The veteran has been hot as of late, shooting 61% from the field in his last four, which has resulted in 26 DraftKings PPG for Alexander-Walker. The veteran has received 25.8 minutes per game during this stretch, and he is averaging 0.8 DraftKings PPM for the season.
While this is a tough matchup with the Clippers ranking sixth in defensive efficiency, Alexander-Walker has the potential to beat his salary with ease if he continues to shoot the ball so efficiently.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Johnson at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,400
Johnson is having a career season, scoring a robust 45.5 DraftKings PPG. His 22.6% usage rate and 22.7% assist percentage are huge upgrades from last season, and Johnson is averaging 1.3 DraftKings PPM. As noted above, this matchup with the Bucks boasts the highest total on the slate by a significant 10 points (236.5 points), and Johnson should flourish in this strong setting.
For the last five times he has competed in a total of at least 235 points, Johnson has scored at least 53 DraftKings points three times.
Top Value: De’Andre Hunter at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,900
Hunter is a great, affordable way to attack this slate-high total between the Hawks and Bucks (236.5 points). As one of Atlanta’s primary bench players, Hunter is amassing 27.6 DraftKings PPG with a 23.1% usage rate, which ranks second on the team only behind Young.
Hunter is shooting a career-best 42% from beyond the arc and despite coming off the bench, he ranks fourth on the Hawks in playing time this season (27.4 minutes per game). Milwaukee is giving up the sixth-most made three-pointers this season, and Hunter is a strong value play at this low price tag, which is notably the cheapest he has been in DraftKings in 10 games.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $8,000
Adebayo has topped 50 DraftKings points in two of his last three starts, and this is a terrific spot for the big man, with the Lakers ranked 24th in defensive efficiency and giving up the fourth-most points in the paint. Adebayo has merit in this spot no matter what, but if Jimmy Butler (knee) is out, Adebayo will see a notable boost and be one of the best targets on the slate.
This season, the center is scoring 42.7 DraftKings PPG with Butler inactive (five games) and with the wing off the floor, Adebayo’s usage has risen 1.9 percentage points to 23.9%, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Guerschon Yabusele vs. Orlando Magic – $6,000
In addition to Embiid, the 76ers will be without Andre Drummond (ankle) tonight, leaving Yabusele as the club’s starting center. Philadelphia has been without both Embiid and Drummond twice this season, and on those occasions, Yabusele has started and produced 30.6 DraftKings points in 31.6 minutes per game.
The ex-Celtic is collecting 1.0 DraftKings PPM with Embiid, Drummond, and George off the court, and Yabusele should be able to grind out over 5x value with his team depleted tonight, regardless of this difficult matchup with the Magic.
