The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,600 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
With Stephen Curry out due to an injury, all eyes will be on this epic point guard battle between Ja Morant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Morant gets the slight nod as he has the highest ceiling at point guard in our Tournament Model for both sites. On FanDuel, Morant is $700 cheaper than Gilgeous-Alexander but is projected for over two more fantasy points. With a 97% Bargain Ratiing, Morant looks incredible on FanDuel.
Morant missed the last game due to an ankle injury but is not listed on the injury report for tonight. However, Desmond Bane remains out, which provides a nice boost to Morant’s usage and production. Overall this is a great matchup for Morant against the Thunder. The Grizzlies are 7.5-point home favorites as the Thunder play at the third-highest Pace in the league.
Top Value: Jordan Poole at Utah Jazz – $6,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
The first of many Warriors players worth getting exposure to is combo guard Jordan Poole. Not only is Curry out, but so are Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins. Using our On/Off Tool with those three players out, Poole has a team-high +5.2% usage rate and a +4.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 167 minutes with Curry, Green, and Wiggins off the floor this season. Poole has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings.
In his fourth season in the league, Poole has been very boom or bust. However, he has been cooking recently, averaging 24.7 points per game while shooting 54.7% from the field and 48.3% from downtown over his last three games. We have already seen a 50+ DraftKings point performance from Poole this season, and with these three players out, Poole will have every opportunity to match that tonight.
He will be one of the highest-owned players on both sites.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Boston Celtics – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
After back-to-back games that ended in blowouts, Devin Booker played 28 and 30 minutes while averaging only 26.3 DraftKings points per game. Expect a bounce-back performance from Booker, who had three-straight games with over 40 points before that recent cold streak. Chris Paul is questionable for the first time tonight after missing exactly one month full of games, but that may help take some of the pressure off of Booker’s ball-handling duties.
After leading the league in Defensive Rating last season, the Celtics rank 15th this season as they are struggling without center Robert Williams defending the paint. Booker is averaging a career-high 28.4 points per game while nearly joining the 50-40-90 club with his percentages. His salary has come down to $9,500 on FanDuel after three-straight games being priced at $10,200.
The discount on FanDuel is where Booker should be prioritized tonight.
Top Value: Klay Thompson at Utah Jazz – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Staying with the Warriors’ value, Klay Thompson isn’t far from Poole as the best value on the slate. It has been a tough year thus far for Thompson, who is averaging 18 points per game, which is the lowest he has had since his 2012-2013 season. He is shooting 40.2% from the field, as 63.3% of his field goal attempts are coming from behind the arc. Thompson made eight 3-pointers in his last game, and the opportunities will be plentiful tonight to get up double-digit 3-point attempts.
Similar to Poole, despite Thompson’s struggles this season, he has had back-to-back games averaging 27 points on 22 field goal attempts per game. The Warriors are nearly double-digit road underdogs, but this game has a total of 234.5 points, which is the second-highest on the slate. The Jazz have been strong guarding the 3-point line this season, but their Defensive Rating has dropped down to 25th in the league as they have lost nine of their last 13 games.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Charlotte Hornets – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
Another very difficult decision comes at small forward, where there are three top-tier options, including Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James. I’m trusting the model again for this pick, as Durant leads both Tatum and James with the highest ceiling at this position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Durant has matched his scoring average from last season with 29.9 points per game while continuing to shoot a career-high 55.3% from the field.
Ben Simmons remains out for the Nets, which allows Durant to have a higher ceiling. In eight games without Simmons this season, Durant has averaged 8.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game, compared to 5.9 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game with Simmons on the floor. The Nets are double-digit home favorites as the Hornets rank 21st in Defensive Rating while allowing 115.1 points per game.
This is a great spot to stick with one of the best scorer in the league.
Top Value: Kawhi Leonard at Orlando Magic – $7,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Someone must have messed with the pricing automation on FanDuel because this Kawhi Leonard salary of $5,800 is absurd. Leonard played his first game back since another injury setback last game but played a season-high 28 minutes. He finished with 16 points shooting 7 of 15 from the field with a 25.4% usage rate. The Clippers will be without John Wall, Marcus Morris, Norman Powell, and Luke Kennard, paving the way for potentially more Leonard minutes tonight.
Our model has Leonard projected for 28 minutes again tonight, which is making him the best non-Warriors value player on FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. The Magic have a league-worst 5-20 record making this a great game for Leonard to get some extra run. They rank 27th in Defensive Rating as the Clippers are seven-point road favorites.
Prioritize Leonard on FanDuel at this ridiculously cheap price tag.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Sacramento Kings – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
The only player priced over $11,000 on DraftKings is Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are both back, but Giannis has scored 30 or more points in seven-straight games. During that stretch, he is averaging 36 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 59.6 DraftKings points per game while shooting 60.4% from the field. With such a high ceiling, Giannis is going to be tough to avoid, especially on FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating.
The Bucks have the highest implied team total on the slate at 121.5 points as they are 6.5-point home favorites against the Kings. This is a great matchup specifically for Giannis, as the Kings rank 25th in points allowed in the paint with 52.6 per game. The Kings also rank sixth in Pace allowing 115.5 points per game, so Giannis can thrive in transition. With how well Giannis has played recently and how juicy this matchup is, he is worthy of the top price tag.
Top Value: Jonathan Kuminga at Utah Jazz – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Jonathan Kuminga has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate for DraftKings at his $3,400 salary. After being removed from the rotation, Kuminga has worked his way back as his minutes have increased for three-straight games. We have Kuminga projected for 36 minutes tonight, which would be the third-highest he has played all season. He is a fantastic salary saver, especially on DraftKings with so many pay-up options on this slate.
His second year in the league has been a bit of a rollercoaster being in and out of the Warriors lineup. This team still has Championship aspirations with so many talented veterans it is tough to play the young rising players. However, in the two games that Kuminga has started this season, he is averaging 18 points on 16 field goal attempts per game.
He has played an average of 39 minutes while also producing six total steals and blocks.
Center
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Pascal Siakam has power forward and center eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is one of the best options below $10,000 on both sites. In his five games since coming back from injury, Siakam has scored over 40 DraftKings points in each game. He has really stepped up in his last two games, averaging nearly a triple-double with 27.5 points, 8.5 assists, 8.0 rebounds, and 49.8 DraftKings points per game.
Anthony Davis left the Lakers game last night after playing eight minutes due to an illness. His status for tonight is up in the air, but if he were to miss, Siakam will get another boost as Davis ranks eighth in the league in Defensive Real Plus/Minus this season. The Lakers rank 24th in points allowed in the paint with 51.8 per game. They also allow 46.6 rebounds per game, which ranks as the second-highest in the league.
Regardless if Davis is playing or not, Siakam looks fantastic on both sites tonight.
Top Value: Mitchell Robinson vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
One of the best center matchups on the slate is Clint Capela vs. Mitchell Robinson. We will side with Robinson, who is much cheaper, especially on DraftKings, with a very low $4,900 salary. Foul trouble is always the concern with Robinson, who has shown extreme upside if he can keep his hands to himself. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in five of his last six games while averaging 28.8 DraftKings points per game during that time.
This matchup between the Knicks and Hawks has a very high 233-point total, with the home team Knicks, favored by a bucket. Robinson has only played in 16 games this season but has posted 7.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game while shooting 72.5% from the field. The Hawks allow the fifth-most points in the paint with 53.3 per game while ranking in the middle of the pack in Rebounding Percentage. A low-priced player who has double-double upside provides a lot of value.
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