The NBA returns to a full schedule tonight with 11 games on tap. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Brooklyn Nets – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Fire up Young in all formats tonight, with the guard competing in the highest total on the slate vs. the Nets (243.5 points). Brooklyn ranks 19th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Hawks’ implied team total is the second largest on the board (123.5 points), via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Young exposed this same Brooklyn team for 67.5 DraftKings points two weeks ago from today, and this season, the guard is scoring 1.4 DraftKings PPM, thanks to a 31.2% usage rate and a 42.8% assist percentage.
Young is amassing 63.3 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has played behind an implied team total of at least 120 points and is one of the best expensive options available Wednesday.
Top Value: Keyonte George at Dallas Mavericks – $6,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
With Lauri Markkanen (hamstring) and Jordan Clarkson (hamstring) remaining out tonight, George is strong value and is a name that shouldn’t be too popular for this full slate. In the three starts the rookie has made sans Markkanen and Clarkson, George has been the Jazz’s featured player, leading the team with a 30.5% usage rate, which is a massive 9.3 percentage point increase from his average for the season, via the On/Off Tool.
George has scored over 34 DraftKings points in two of these three starts, with that outlier being a 22.5 DraftKings points effort that was understandable, considering it came in the worst possible matchup for the guard, facing the Wolves and their top-ranked defense on the road.
For tonight, George is in a plus spot, taking on the Mavs, who rank 13th in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency. This tilt’s total ranks third on the slate (231.5 points), and George is a threat for over 40 fantasy points in this situation.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Edwards (hip) has missed the past two games but is “trending towards” playing tonight, per Wolves’ HC Chris Finch. Edwards should get overlooked coming off the injury and barring any serious restrictions, he should dominate in this excellent matchup vs. the Spurs, who rank third in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency. The Wolves boast the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (121.25 points) – which is their high mark of the season — and Edwards already has a 49.5 DraftKings points performance vs. San Antonio this season.
The wing is handling a career-high usage rate this season (32.1%) and has produced at least 49 DraftKings points in four of the five starts when playing behind an implied team total of at least 115 points, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Cam Thomas at Atlanta Hawks – $7,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
After coming off the bench in his first game back from a nine-game absence due to an ankle injury, Thomas was reinserted into the Nets’ starting five Saturday and did not disappoint, finishing with 37.25 DraftKings points across 37.3 minutes in a brutal matchup vs. the Magic, who rank third in defensive efficiency.
Brooklyn won this game by a season-high 28 points, and now, they get one of the best matchups they could ask for in the Hawks. Atlanta ranks fourth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and this contest’s total is the highest on the slate (243.5 points), which is easily the largest total the Nets have played in this season.
Thomas leads Brooklyn with a huge 32% usage rate and is averaging 40.1 DraftKings PPG for the six times he has competed in a total of at least 225 points this season, via the Trends Tool.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane at Detroit Pistons – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Especially at only $8,200 on FanDuel, Bane is a terrific target tonight. The wing has recorded over 40 DraftKings points in seven of his past 11 starts and is facing a Pistons’ team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and has dropped 17 games in a row.
Sitting at 5-14, the Grizzlies have had a disappointing season themselves, and taking care of business and defeating Detroit tonight is extremely important for Memphis. They are two-point favorites for this tilt, and in spreads under five points this season, Bane is contributing 46.5 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Derrick Jones Jr. vs. Utah Jazz – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Jones has seen big minutes for the Mavs in their last three, logging 32.6 minutes per game, which has resulted in 29.7 DraftKings PPG for the veteran. Tonight, Dallas is going against a Jazz team that is shorthanded and ranks 24th in defensive efficiency this season.
As previously mentioned, this game’s total is the third highest on the slate (231.5 points), and the Mavs are dealing with injuries themselves, with Tim Hardaway Jr. (back) and Grant Williams (knee) both questionable. In the likely event that at least one of these key players sits, Jones Jr. should continue to see a heavy workload and easily exceed 5x value at these affordable salaries. The veteran is shooting a career-best 42% from three this season and is amassing 28.9 DraftKings PPG for the seven occasions he has logged a minimum of 25 minutes.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at Cleveland Cavaliers – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
FantasyLabs is projecting Banchero to be very low-owned on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, and the forward has merit for large tournaments. Banchero is scoring 1.14 DraftKings PPM this season with a 26% usage rate and has recorded over 41 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts. The Cavs aren’t the best matchup, ranking 10th in defensive efficiency, but this game is expected to be tight throughout, with Cleveland only favored by four points, which should result in a large workload for Banchero.
In three matchups with Cleveland last season, Banchero generated 42.3 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Patrick Williams vs. Charlotte Hornets – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
With Zach LaVine (foot) sidelined, Williams is an appealing, cheap gamble for GPPs. In LaVine’s absence Saturday, Williams finished with 30 DraftKings points across 29.2 minutes in a tough matchup vs. the Pelicans. The forward has started in all three of the contests LaVine has missed this season and is averaging 24.4 DraftKings points in 34 minutes per game on those occasions.
Facing a Hornets’ club that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency tonight, Williams has the potential for over 30 fantasy points.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Washington Wizards – $11,600 DraftKings, $12,300 FanDuel
Embiid should explode tonight vs. the Wizards. The center has been removed from the 76ers’ injury report after missing the past two games with an illness, and no team competing tonight carries a higher implied team total than Philadelphia (124.5 points) due to Washington ranking second in pace and second-to-last in defensive efficiency.
Furthermore, the Wizards are a perfect spot for big men like Embiid, with them allowing the most rebounds and second-most points in the paint this season. The center is the NBA’s leader in usage (36.7%) and unsurprisingly feasted in his first matchup of the season with Washington on November 8th, posting a season-high 48 points en route to 75.75 DraftKings points.
The 76ers’ 124.5-point implied team total is the highest they have seen this season, and for the four instances Embiid has played behind an implied team total of at least 118 points, the superstar is collecting 66.8 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Ivica Zubac vs. Denver Nuggets – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Particularly at less than $6,000 on DraftKings, Zubac is a terrific GPP option tonight. Going against the Nuggets is a matchup that sets up well for the center. The Clippers need Zubac’s size to defend Nikola Jokic, and the superstar has had issues on the defensive end this season. Already in two head-to-head matchups with Jokic this season, Zubac is amassing 38.4 DraftKings PPG.
With FantasyLabs projecting the big man for essentially no ownership tonight, Zubac could be the key to taking down GPPs.
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