Wednesday delivers an eight-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,900 DraftKings
By a sizeable gap, Murray brings the highest ceiling on the slate for a point guard in our NBA models. The 27-year-old is in an excellent spot, hosting the Pistons, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency and ninth in pace. The Hawks carry the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (118 points), and both Trae Young (hand) and Saddiq Bey (knee) remain sidelined.
For the 10 starts Murray has made sans both Young and Bey this season, he is generating 54.4 DraftKings PPG, with a 32% usage rate, which is a 5.4 percentage point lift from his season average, via the On/Off Tool. Murray shouldn’t disappoint tonight and is one of the best spends on the board.
Top Value: Jared Butler vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $4,000 DraftKings
Kyle Kuzma (heel) is an important name to monitor tonight. The forward has missed two in a row and five of the Wizards’ last nine and feels likely unlikely to suit up for this tanking Washington club. If that ends up being the case, Butler will be an awesome punt play. In these most recent five games without Kuzma, Butler has flourished off the bench for the Wizards, producing 30.3 DraftKings points in 24.1 minutes per game with a 23.9% usage rate.
Butler amasses 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Kuzma off the court this season and will be a terrific way to attack this slate-high total vs. the Lakers (233.5 points) if the latter is inactive as expected.
Update: Kuzma has been removed from the Wizards’ injury report and will play tonight. This hurts Butler’s value significantly and he is a fringe GPP play now.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jordan Poole vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $7,300 DraftKings
Poole will be another appealing target in the likely event Kuzma remains out. In the five games the ex-Laker has missed this month, Poole has generated 36.8 DraftKings PPG with a team-high 30.4% usage rate. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (233.5 points) due to these clubs both ranking top-three in pace this season, and Los Angeles should be weaker than usual on the defensive end, playing their second game in two nights.
Even with Kuzma active, Poole had one of his best showings of the season against this Laker team in late February, going off for 53.25 DraftKings points, which is the type of upside the guard has tonight.
Update: Kuzma’s return hurts Poole’s value, but the guard still is a viable option. In the past four games Poole has played alongside Kuzma, he has erupted for at least 48 DraftKings points twice.
Top Value: Luke Kennard at Milwaukee Bucks – $5,200 DraftKings
Kennard has been a consistent contributor for the Grizzlies as of late, scoring 30.5 DraftKings PPG in his past five. During this stretch, the veteran’s workload has been very encouraging, with him logging 30 minutes per game while handling a 20.4% usage rate and a 34% assist percentage. This understaffed Memphis team won’t be getting any fresh players off the injury report tonight, and this is a solid spot for Kennard, with the Bucks ranking fifth in pace.
The 27-year-old should surpass 5x value in this spot and is one of the best guard values on the slate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Toronto Raptors – $9,400 DraftKings
Edwards’ recent results haven’t been great by his standards, which should translate into low ownership for the wing. More importantly, this is an awesome get right spot for Edwards. Over their last 10 games, the Raptors have ranked sixth in pace and 28th in defensive rating. To make matters worse for Toronto, they are traveling from Toronto to Minnesota for tonight’s contest after losing to the Lakers last night.
The Wolves are a 16.5-point favorite for tonight, but Edwards has been successful in similar situations, recording at least 43 DraftKings in six of the past 10 tilts Minnesota has been favored by double-digits, including three performances over 50 DraftKings points. Lastly, let’s not forget Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) remains out, and with him inactive this season, Edwards is leading the Wolves with 44.5 DraftKings PPG and a 32.3% usage rate.
Top Value: De’Andre Hunter vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,500
Hunter shouldn’t come with much ownership tonight and is worth taking a flier on in GPPs. The lowly Pistons are in town – who rank ninth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency – and both Young and Bey will remain unavailable for the 12th consecutive game. In these past 11 without these two, Hunter has scored at least 28 DraftKings points five times, including two outings over 38 DraftKings points.
At 23.6%, the wing ranks second only to Murray in usage for the Hawks, with both Young and Bey off the court this season. Even with both those players available in these games, Hunter topped 30 DraftKings in both of his first two meetings of the season with the Pistons.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,800 DraftKings
Tatum is a solid target to begin with, which would become one of the better lucrative options on the slate if Jaylen Brown (questionable, hand) remains out. The Celtics are back in Boston tonight after a six-game road trip, and Brown told the media he plans on getting his sprained hand checked out once the team was back in Boston today. So, given the Celtics hold a comfortable 12-game lead for the No.1 seed in the East and have been regularly resting key players as the season winds down, it feels more than likely Brown will miss his second in a row, leaving Tatum with an even larger role than usual.
In the nine starts he has made without Brown this season, Tatum has led the Celtics with 52.1 DraftKings PPG and 34.9% usage rate, which is a 4.1 percentage point increase from his season average. Plus, the Thunder are on the second leg of a back-to-back and even with Brown active, Tatum destroyed Oklahoma City for 60.75 DraftKings points back in January.
Top Value: Jabari Walker at Charlotte Hornets – $4,900 DraftKings
With Toumani Camara (ribs) out for the season, Walker has started in back-to-back games for the Blazers and is fresh off a 37.75 DraftKings point performance vs. the Magic on Monday. This was an impressive feat, considering Orlando ranks second in defensive efficiency, and Walker logged a whopping 40 minutes in the two-point loss. Making it a competitive contest in Orlando was an encouraging sign for this struggling Portland squad, and given the positive results with Walker seeing a massive role, he should continue to see huge minutes tonight in a far better spot vs. the Hornets, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency.
Walker has great upside relative to this low salary and is a strong play for all formats. The 21-year-old is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and has surpassed 30 DraftKings in four of the last 10 games he has cracked the 25-minute mark.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Washington Wizards – $10,500 DraftKings
Davis feasted for 73.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with the Wizards in late February and brings similar upside tonight. Washington is, without a doubt, the best matchup in the league for a big man. This season, they rank first in pace, third-to-last in defensive efficiency, first in rebounds allowed, and second in points in the paint allowed. The Lakers’ implied team total is the highest on the slate (123.75 points), and this game’s total is the largest on the board (233.5 points). Additionally, Los Angeles is a 12.5-point favorite, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Davis is averaging 53.4 DraftKings PPG as a favorite this season (34 games) – via the Trends Tool – and the Kentucky product has erupted for over 60 DraftKings points in three of his past six starts.
Top Value: Grant Williams vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $5,100 DraftKings
Williams has topped 30 DraftKings in three of his past four and is in store for a large workload on Wednesday. Miles Bridges (wrist) is doubtful, while Vasilije Micic (shoulder) and Nick Richards (foot) are out. While we have a very limited sample of Williams in a Hornets’ uniform with these three players off the court, in the 145 minutes he has played with Bridges and Micic off the floor, Williams has garnered a 21.4% usage rate.
The veteran is guaranteed to see over 30 minutes with the Hornets so depleted tonight, and this is an enticing matchup vs. the tanking Blazers, who rank 27th in defensive rating over their last 10 games. Williams should destroy his low salary in this spot and is a core play for this eight-game slate.
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