For Wednesday night, DraftKings’ main slate features the first six games of the night. With this being the final week of the regular season, do note that 10 of the 12 teams competing on this slate played last night. The only teams that aren’t on the second night of a back-to-back are the Cavaliers and Nets. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. San Antonio Spurs – $10,100 DraftKings
Gilgeous-Alexander (quad) returned from a four-game absence last night and showed no signs of rust, exposing the Kings for 61.75 DraftKings points across 37.5 minutes in a winning effort. The Thunder need to keep winning if they want to secure a top-two seed in the Western Conference, and on the menu for tonight is a prime matchup vs. the Spurs, who rank fourth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency this season. Gilgeous-Alexander has supplied at least 56 DraftKings points in two of his three matchups with San Antonio this season, and they could be even weaker than usual on defense tonight, with Victor Wembanyama “uncertain” after playing last night. With the rookie off the court this season, the Spurs’ defense has seen a rating of 120.8, which would be the worst in the league if it was their average for the season.
Nonetheless, if Wembanyama plays or not, Gilgeous-Alexander should thrive tonight and is a strong high-end value. Oklahoma City carries the highest implied team total on the slate (120.75 points) and when the guard has been at home and competing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is providing 56.8 DraftKings PPG (18 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Jordan Goodwin at Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,500 DraftKings
Goodwin is the No.1 value on the slate in our NBA models and is a core play Wednesday. Last night vs. the Spurs, the veteran tallied a double-double, en route to 42.25 DraftKings points in 36.1 minutes. Jaren Jackson Jr. (quad) and Desmond Bane (back) missed this game and both players are expected to miss the remainder of the season. This leaves Goodwin with a large role that by no means is reflected in his current salary.
In the eight games he has played without both Jackson Jr. and Bane this season, Goodwin is amassing 30.9 DraftKings points in 30 minutes per game with a 19.7% usage rate. This is also a solid spot for him, with the Cavs ranking 27th in defensive rating over their last 10 games. Cleveland has dropped seven games during this stretch, and Goodwin should have no issues outproducing his low salary tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cam Thomas vs. Toronto Raptors – $7,700 DraftKings
Thomas shouldn’t be a popular target tonight and has great upside vs. the Raptors, who rank second in pace and second-to-last in defensive rating over their last 10 games. The Nets are tied for the third-highest implied team total on the slate (116 points), which is the largest total they have seen since early February. This is a clear testament to how strong of a matchup this is, and Thomas has displayed a huge ceiling recently, scoring at least 44 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts.
In our NBA models, Thomas’ ceiling is the highest ceiling on the slate among shooting guards.
Top Value: Pat Connaughton vs. Orlando Magic – $4,000 DraftKings
With Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Khris Middleton (injury management) out tonight, Connaughton is best shooting guard value this slate has to offer. The last time Antetokounmpo was sidelined, Connaughton finished with 20 DraftKings points in 33.3 minutes off the bench. With Jae Crowder a DNP CD last night, Connaughton is in line for a start tonight.
Nevertheless, starter or reserve, Connaughton should see over 30 minutes tonight, giving him a strong chance to surpass five-times value.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges at Atlanta Hawks – $7,900 DraftKings
Bridges is rating as a solid value in this plus spot vs. the Hawks, who rank fifth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. Their defense could become even weaker if Young returns, and this game’s total is up to 221 points, via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Bridges is handling a 24.2% usage rate this season, and in totals of 220 points, he is generating 39 DraftKings PPG (42 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Julian Champagnie at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,500 DraftKings
Ever since the Spurs lost Devin Vassell (head) and Jeremy Sochan (ankle) for the season, Champagnie has been a solid fantasy asset, scoring 25.3 DraftKings points in a team-high 36.5 minutes per game in San Antonio’s last five. The Thunder rank ninth in defensive efficiency, but both these clubs rank inside the top-10 in pace, resulting in this contest carrying the highest total on the slate (226.5 points).
Champagnie is an excellent value play in this environment that would become a very difficult fade if Wembanyama is inactive. With the rookie, Vassell, and Sochan off the floor this season, Champagnie collects 0.9 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,400 DraftKings
After losing to the Rockets last night, the Magic have dropped to the No.4 seed in the East. However, they are only two games behind the Bucks for the No.2 seed with four games to go, and two of these contests will be played against Milwaukee. The season series between these two clubs is tied at one win each, and getting a victory tonight against the Bucks would obviously be huge for Orlando’s chances of improving their seed before the season ends. Banchero was outstanding in the Magic’s first two matchups of the season with the Bucks, scoring 46.9 DKFP per game, and he should see huge minutes tonight in this crucial tilt.
Banchero has recorded at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his last six starts, and tonight is expected to be a nail biter in Milwaukee, with Orlando only favored by one point. When the spread has been under three points and the Magic have been on the road this season, Banchero has stepped up for his team, averaging 45 DraftKings PPG (seven games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Toronto Raptors – $5,300 DraftKings
Johnson (toe) will return from a two-game absence tonight, and if he isn’t under a serious minutes limit, the forward will be worth attacking in GPPs. Hosting the Raptors, who rank second in pace and second-to-last in defensive rating over their last 10 games, the Nets boast their highest implied team total in over two months (116 points). Plus, Dorian Finney-Smith (knee) is out, and the last time the veteran sat, Johnson started and finished with 34.5 DraftKings points in 35.1 minutes vs. the Bucks.
Overall, in the six games he has played sans Finney-Smith this season, Johnson is producing 30 DraftKings PPG.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Chet Holmgren vs. San Antonio Spurs – $7,200 DraftKings
This is a very reasonable price tag for Holmgren in this great spot vs. the Spurs. The rookie has scored at least 41 DraftKings points in back-to-back meetings with San Antonio, and the Thunder’s implied team total is the highest on the slate by nearly four points (120.75).
Holmgren is collecting 39.1 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (31 games), and the big man will become an even better option if Wembanyama sits for the Spurs. As noted above, San Antonio’s defense rating has been at a putrid 120.8 with the budding star off the floor this season.
Top Value: Trey Jemison at Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,300 DraftKings
Just like Goodwin, Jemison is a core play for this six-game slate with the Grizzlies depleted. The 23-year-old is Jackson Jr.’s replacement in Memphis’ starting five, and in the last five the veteran has missed, Jemison has generated 30 DraftKings points in 31 minutes per game as the Grizzlies’ starting center. The big man should be in store for an even larger workload tonight, with Brandon Clarke (rest) joining Memphis’ lengthy inactive list.
FantasyLabs’ projections are forecasting Jemison for a whopping 40 minutes, and this is a compelling matchup with the Cavs’ ranking 27th in defensive rating over their last 10 games. Jemison is amassing 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season and should destroy this low salary.
