The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Sacramento Kings – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
There has been some discussion that the Mavericks will sit down Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but with both of them listed as probable, expect them to play tonight. The Mavericks could secure the last seed in the play-in tournament if they win three-straight home games and the Thunder lose one of their next two games. As long as Doncic remains probable, he looks like one of the best pay-up options on the slate.
The Kings clinched the Pacific division and find themselves basically locked into the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. It wouldn’t be surprising if they rested a few players on their second leg of a back-to-back. Regardless of who plays for the Kings, Doncic will have plenty of opportunities to succeed in this matchup. The Kings are allowing 118.1 points per game, which is the fifth-highest in the league. In a win-or-go-home spot, expect a big game from Doncic.
Top Value: Jordan Goodwin at Atlanta Hawks – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Jordan Goodwin was one of the best values on the slate last night, and tonight should be no different. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel and is projected to play around 30 minutes. Last night, Goodwin had a near double-double with 14 points, nine assists, and four rebounds, finishing with over 30 DraftKings points for the second-straight game. He is projected to make it three-straight games in this matchup.
Based on how well Goodwin has played recently and how cheap he is, it should be no surprise that he has the highest projected ownership on both sites at over 60%. Goodwin is a cash game cornerstone despite the Wizards being 10-point road underdogs against the Hawks. With so many players out for the Wizards, they have no choice but to play Goodwin-heavy minutes.
He drew his first start since January last night and is expected to start tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Mikal Bridges at Detroit Pistons – $8,600 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
The shooting guard position, per usual, is missing elite star power, but the mid-range is flooded will really good plays. One of those is Mikal Bridges, who has transcended into a completely different player since being acquired by the Nets at the trade deadline. In his 24 games as a Brooklyn Net, Bridges is averaging a career-high 27.4 points per game. He has a 29.7% usage rate and is still shooting 49% from the field over that time.
The Nets are double-digit road favorites against the Pistons, who have lost 10 consecutive games and have the worst record in the league. They rank 28th in Defensive Rating (117.9) while allowing 118.7 points per game. The Nets can move one step closer to clinching a playoff birth with a victory tonight. Over his last seven games, Bridges is averaging 32.3 points and 47.5 DraftKings points per game.
Bridges has the highest ceiling at the shooting guard position on both sites.
Top Value: Johnny Davis at Atlanta Hawks – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Sticking with the Wizards value plays, rookie Johnny Davis has started to come into his own with his new opportunity on the team due to injuries and starters sitting out. Davis has scored double-digit points in four of his last five games, including a career-high 20 points last night. Not only did Davis score the ball really well, but he stuffed the stat sheet with five rebounds, four assists, two steals, and two blocks as he accumulated his fifth-straight game with a positive Plus/Minus.
Davis is right behind his backcourt teammate Jordan Goodwin with the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He is only $4,200 and has a Bargain Rating of 96%, which is resulting in projected ownership over 50%. This will be the third-straight game that Davis has started, as he played a season-high 37 minutes last night. Prioritize Davis on FanDuel, but he is a great value play across the industry in this up-tempo matchup against the Hawks.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
One of the best players in the league right now is Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram. It is hard to find someone playing as well as he has recently, as the Pelicans have climbed their way to the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference after winning seven of their last nine games. Over that time, Ingram is averaging 29.3 points, 8.2 assists, and 6.3 rebounds per game. He has one double-double and two triple-doubles during that red-hot stretch.
The Pelicans had a tough loss last night to the Kings but have a chance to bounce back with this home matchup against the Grizzlies. They are 5.5-point home favorites despite Zion Williamson continuing to be out with another injury. In 30 games without Williamson this season, Ingram has increased his scoring production to 25.9 points as he is attempting 19.8 field goals per game with a 32.4% usage rate.
At $9,900 on both sites in a near must-win game, get exposure to this rising star.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale at Detroit Pistons – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Royce O’Neale has the highest projected Plus/Minus among all forwards on FanDuel, as he remains a little too cheap at $4,900. Even at his $5,000 salary on DraftKings, O’Neale is a cheap way to get exposure to the Nets. In his first year with the Nets, O’Neale is averaging a career-high in points and assists while also contributing on the glass with five rebounds per game. He is known for his defense, but O’Neale can score fantasy points in a variety of ways.
The new-look Nets offense shoots a ton of 3-pointers, and their percentage is elite at 38.1%, which is tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league. O’Neale is one of those bombers as he has made at least two 3-pointers in 10 of his last 13 games. With how bad the Pistons are defensively, O’Neale should be able to get plenty of open-look opportunities. He may not be a player to lock in right away, but O’Neale is a fantastic player to round out any type of lineup.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,400 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
We’re going right back to the well with Giannis Antetokounmpo as the Bucks have a chance to secure the No. 1 seed with a victory tonight. Giannis is coming off of a triple-double last night, where he had 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists. He dominated the paint, shooting 9 of 16 from the field, and attempted 17 free throws. Averaging a career-high 31.1 points per game, Giannis can help the Bucks clinch in style with another ceiling performance.
The Bucks are looking to tie up their season series with the Bulls as they are seven-point home favorites. Similar to most opponents, Giannis has dominated this matchup averaging a massive double-double with 27.7 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. The Bulls have been great at defending the paint, but the Greek Freak is a different matchup. Even with Khris Middleton likely back, Giannis has one of the second-highest ceiling in our model tonight.
Top Value: Jalen Johnson vs. Washington Wizards – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Second-year pro Jalen Johnson is looking better and better every game he gets an extended opportunity in. The very athletic power forward from Duke is coming off a career-high 16 points last night, shooting 7 of 10 from the field. He added four rebounds, three blocks, two assists, and a steal on his way to over 30 DraftKings points. Since entering the rotation again, Johnson has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in each of his last three games.
The main reason for Johnson’s extended minutes has been due to the absence of Deandre Hunter. His status is up in the air again tonight, which is why Johnson looks so appealing. At $3,400 on DraftKings, Johnson has a 92% Bargain Rating. Johnson is projected to play a modest 18 minutes, but in his last three games has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute.
He looks way too cheap in this great matchup and extended opportunity.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Dallas Mavericks – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
With Anthony Davis “uncertain” to play tonight, the top center option is easily Domantas Sabonis. The Kings do have an outside shot at climbing to get the No. 2 seed, although it is unlikely. Sabonis and the Kings got a huge road victory against the Pelicans last night as Sabonis recorded his 13th triple-double of the season with 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists. He may mess around and capture another triple-double in this matchup tonight.
Sabonis is leading the league with 12.4 rebounds per game, which is bad news for the Mavericks, who rank second-to-last in Rebounding Percentage. In his first year with the Kings, Sabonis is averaging 19.2 points, 12.4 rebounds, and a career-high 7.2 assists per game. He is also shooting a remarkable 61.3% from the field. Priced at $10,100 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Sabonis feels like a strong pay-up option given the elite matchup.
Top Value: Jalen Duren vs. Brooklyn Nets – $5,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Jalen Duren has blossomed into one of the best rookies in the 2023 draft class. Last night against one of the league’s best interior defenders in Bam Adebayo, Duren had a monster double-double with 20 points and 14 rebounds. He has shown flashes of an incredible ceiling and will get a chance to use his strength against Nic Claxton and the weak Nets frontcourt. Duren has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
Priced at $5,100 on DraftKings feels like an absolute steal as Duren has a 98% Bargain Rating and is projected for close to 50% ownership. He has a fantastic shot at another double-double tonight as the Nets rank last in Rebounding Percentage (47.3%) and middle of the pack in points allowed in the paint per game. With teammates Isaiah Stewart and Marvin Bagley out, there is simply too much opportunity for Duren not to succeed in this spot.
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