Welcome to Opening Night in the NBA! We have a fantastic two-game slate to get our feet wet into this NBA season. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson at Boston Celtics – $8,700 DraftKings
Jalen Brunson is in a pricing tier of his own at the point guard position. His median and ceiling projection in our model is nearly 15 points more than the next closest point guard. Brunson finished his 2023 campaign with career-highs in points, assists, and minutes and averaged a 33.8% usage rate, which ranked third in the league. The Knicks made a few offseason moves, but Brunson is still option A for this offense.
The Celtics are a difficult matchup for opposing point guards. They ranked second in defense DVOA last season and return everyone from their Championship run. However, Brunson still averaged 27.4 points per game in their five meetings last season. He can produce on sheer volume alone. Despite being 5.5-point road underdogs and implied for a slate-low 109 points, Brunson is worth tournament exposure.
Top Value: Miles McBride at Boston Celtics – $3,600 DraftKings
Staying in the Knicks backcourt, Miles McBride is projected to be one of the best values on the slate. He has the highest-projected Plus/Minus at the guard position and will be one of the first players off the bench for the Knicks. McBride had a strong preseason, scoring 52 points in 84 minutes. He is a volume shooter who will benefit from the absence of Donte DiVincenzo and currently injured Landry Shamet.
Despite the Knicks being a starter-heavy rotation, McBride is projected to play 25 minutes tonight. McBride will also benefit if the Celtics start to run away with this game. It is impossible to predict blowouts, but that would help his outlook. At $3,600, he does not need to do much to pay off his salary. The biggest question is whether or not his savings is worth it on this slate where the salaries are so soft.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Los Angeles Lakers – $8,800 DraftKings
Another guard coming off a monster season is Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards. He led the team to the Western Conference Finals, averaging a career-high 25.9 points per game. His 33.7% usage rate also ranked him fourth, just behind Brunson last season. Expect similar numbers this year, with the team losing Karl-Anthony Towns and gaining Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. Edwards has a very high ceiling.
The matchup against the Lakers makes this a great spot to get exposure to Edwards tonight. They played at the fourth-highest pace last season and were a below-average defensive team. Due to all of their success in 2023, the Timberwolves have gained the respect from the Vegas books being one-point road favorites against the Lakers. Edwards is a huge reason why and is only projected for 20% ownership.
Top Value: Austin Reaves vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $6,000 DraftKings
With point guard and shooting guard eligibility, Austin Reaves is a strong play in the mid-range. Reaves is yet another player who averaged a career-high in scoring last season with 15.9 points and 5.5 assists per game. His role flipped throughout the season last year from the bench to the starting lineup, but Reaves is now projected to be the starting shooting guard to start the season for a high-expectation Lakers team.
Reaves leads all guards with seven Pro Trends for this opening two-game slate. He is a cheap way to get exposure to this Lakers team that is still projected for 109.5 points. The Timberwolves were a phenomenal defense last season, allowing a league-best 106.5 points per game. This matchup is not ideal, but Reaves can produce fantasy points in a variety of ways, and his $6,000 price tag is more than reasonable tonight.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. New York Knicks – $9,000 DraftKings
Leading the slate in projected ceiling is Jayson Tatum. Coming off his first championship, Tatum is poised for another great year. He has led the Celtics in points and rebounds in back-to-back seasons, and with Kristaps Porzingis on the shelf to start the season, Tatum has a great chance to make it three in a row. With Porzingis off the floor last season, Tatum led the Celtics with a +3.29% usage rate per game.
The Knicks led the league in rebounding percentage last season, but a repeat performance with be put to the test with their offseason moves. Tatum will have a great chance to record a points and rebounds double-double in this matchup. Due to the matchup and playing without Porzingis, Tatum has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. He is a staple in cash games and a great tournament option.
Top Value: Josh Hart at Boston Celtics – $5,600 DraftKings
Josh Hart is projected for the most ownership on this two-game slate at nearly 70%. Priced at $5,600, Hart also has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus. He will be impossible to ignore at this price point, given his dual forward eligibility. From last February until the end of the 2023 season, Hart absolutely dominated the glass with a team-high 19.4 rebound chances and 11.5 rebounds per game.
With the departure of Julius Randle and Isaiah Hartenstein, Hart will need to be crashing the glass again this season. The Knicks added Karl-Anthony Towns, but he has not averaged double-digit rebounds in the last three years. Hart also averaged double-digit points from February on. He has a ton of upside at $5,600 and is projected to play 36 minutes tonight, which is tied for the most on the slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $8,900 DraftKings
Starting his 22nd season, LeBron James is still playing at an elite level. At 39 years old, James averaged 25.7 and shot 54% from the field and 41.7% from behind the arc. He also averaged 8.3 assists and 7.5 rebounds while playing 35.3 minutes per game. It does not seem like James is slowing down anytime soon. Priced just under $9,000, James has the third-highest ceiling projection for this two-game slate.
Bringing back the same team, James will be relied upon to produce at a similar level. Projected to play 35 minutes tonight, James will be a popular pay-up option. Being $500 cheaper than his teammate Anthony Davis has propelled James to 10% more popularity. In what is projected to be a close game, James is the best option on the Lakers. He has the best matchup on the team and has legit triple-double upside.
Top Value: Naz Reid at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,900 DraftKings
It took five seasons, but Naz Reid finally broke out last year. He averaged a career-high across the board in minutes, points, rebounds, and assists while shooting a remarkable 41.4% from behind the arc. Reid posted a 24.3% usage rate last season and averaged over one fantasy point per minute. Despite being projected for 25 minutes, Reid has proven that he can be productive and take advantage of second units.
Outside of Anthony Davis, the Lakers do not have a lot of depth in the paint, especially with Christian Wood and Jarred Vanderbilt out tonight. Reid dominated this matchup last year, averaging 21.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game while shooting 60.4% from the field and 55.2% from downtown in four meetings last season. Priced under $5,000, Reid is a fantastic way to get exposure to the Timberwolves.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,400 DraftKings
Anthony Davis is the most expensive player on the slate at $9,400. He is coming off another great season, averaging 24+ points and 12+ rebounds for the second straight year. Davis played a career-high 76 games last season and shot 55.6% from the field. Nearly a lock for a double-double, Davis has a large ceiling. With so much value on this slate, it will be easy to prioritize him at the top.
Despite playing against one of the best rim protectors in the league in Rudy Gobert, Davis has had no trouble in this matchup. His field goal attempts have suffered, but Davis still averaged 23.8 points and 13.5 rebounds per game while shooting 56.7% from the field and 66.7% from downtown. He can stretch Gobert out to the perimeter and take advantage of his skillset. This is a great spot to get contrarian.
Top Value: Karl-Anthony Towns at Boston Celtics – $7,800 DraftKings
Playing in his first game with the Knicks, Karl-Anthony Towns will have a spotlight on him like he has never had before. With no Kristaps Porzingis on the other side, Towns should be able to have his way in this matchup. He is also playing with no healthy backups behind him, making this a big spot for Towns to play a huge role in tonight’s matchup. Towns is projected to play 35 minutes and have a 29.4% usage rate.
Towns is nearly $2,000 cheaper than Davis but is projected for only three points less, making him the clear-cut center to get exposure to. The sample size was small, but Towns averaged 21 points and 13.3 rebounds per game in his last three preseason games while only playing 29 minutes per night. Towns has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, and with his projection, he is the best option to target.
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