The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Dallas Mavericks – $8,300 DraftKings
This eight-game slate is littered with injuries at the point guard position. Four of the top seven priced players at this position have already been ruled out for tonight’s action. Those injuries, paired with a ridiculously low $8,300 price tag, is why Stephen Curry is the best pay-up option at this position tonight.
Curry is coming off a season-high 36 points where he shot 13-for-23 from the field, including seven made 3-pointers. It was the second game in his last three, where Curry recorded more than 58 DraftKings points. He is starting to cook, and his salary is way too low. There are so many strong value plays on this slate, but none with the upside that Curry has. At this position, Curry has the second-highest projected ceiling and third-highest projected Plus/Minus. Playing at home with the highest game total on the slate, give me Curry.
Top Value: Keaton Wallace at Boston Celtics – $3,200 DraftKings
Trae Young is one of the point guards who will not suit up tonight for the Hawks due to injury. That will open up the door for Keaton Wallace to potentially start and get valuable playing time. Our models have Wallace projected to play 26 minutes, which will provide him more than enough time to pay off his near-minimum $3,200 salary. Wallace has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on this eight-game slate.
The Hawks are likely going to get crushed in this matchup against the Celtics. They are 15-point road underdogs playing without two of their best players. However, even with the difficult matchup, there is plenty of opportunity for Wallace to showcase his skillset. Through the first nine games, Wallace has shot the ball well at 50% from the field and 41.2% from distance in his 14.6 minutes per game. With a usage rate projection over 20%, it is hard to ignore this spot especially with four players priced over $10,000.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Utah Jazz – $8,800 DraftKings
Similar to last season, Devin Booker is back to being a fantastic facilitator. He has back-to-back games with 12 assists and has scored 40+ DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. Booker’s production is expected to rise even more tonight with Kevin Durant being out for the next two weeks. Jusuf Nurkic is also questionable with an injury. Booker’s usage rate will be through the roof in this matchup in Utah.
Despite no Durant and potentially no Nurkic, the Suns are still 3.5-point road favorites implied for 114.75 points. That is a testament to how bad this Jazz team has been. They are coming off a one-point victory over the Spurs, but the Jazz still have the worst record in the Western Conference. Their defensive rating ranks 24th and they are allowing 118.9 points per game. This is an incredible spot for Booker tonight.
Top Value: Garrison Matthews at Boston Celtics – $3,700 DraftKings
Another Hawks player who is popping in our models is shooting guard Garrison Matthews. In his 10 games played this season, Matthews is averaging a career-high 11.1 points per game while shooting 49.1% from behind the arc. Over 80% of the sharpshooter’s field goal attempts have come from long distance this season. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate at his cheap $3,700 salary.
As previously mentioned, this matchup against the Celtics is not great. However, the opportunity and price tag provides a great path to a stars and scrubs lineup build. Matthews is projected to play 30 minutes and be one of the best value plays on the slate. The Celtics are allowing 36.3 3-point attempts per game, which ranks in the the middle of the pack. All we need is a few of his perimeter shots to drop.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Atlanta Hawks – $10,200 DraftKings
Jayson Tatum rolled his ankle in Sunday’s win against the Bucks and is currently listed as questionable to play tonight. Keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock. If Tatum is unable to play, Jaylen Brown would become an elite play at $8,200 with shooting guard and small forward eligibility. Kristaps Porzingis also remains out due to injury, so both Tatum and Brown are sensational plays in this cupcake matchup.
Tatum currently ranks third in the league in scoring with 30.5 points per game. Not only does he lead the team in scoring, but he also leads in rebounds, assists, steals, and usage rate. Tatum has had a great start to the season. His fantasy production has been steading, averaging 53.2 DraftKings points per game. The matchup is elite. The Hawks rank 27th in defensive rating and are allowing 121.6 points per game. They also play at the second-fastest pace in the league. This is a fantastic spot for Tatum if he is able to suit up.
Top Value: Grayson Allen at Utah Jazz – $3,700 DraftKings
It has not been the best season for Grayson Allen, but with Kevin Durant out, he will get an opportunity to get back on track. Allen is shooting a career-worst 32.3% from the field and 31.9% from behind the arc this season. Allen’s 8.3 points per game is the worst he has had since his rookie season. What better time to bounce back than a matchup against the Jazz, who are allowing 39.9 3-pointers attempted per game.
Allen and Bucks’ forward Andre Jackson are $3,700 on this eight-game slate and are both strong value options. However, Allen has the higher median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus projections between the two. Even if he only plays 24 minutes like he is projected, Allen can easily return value in this matchup. He is a cheap way to get exposure to the Suns offense, who should have their way against a pitiful Jazz defensive unit.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Toronto Raptors – $11,300 DraftKings
Despite another sensational game from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks suffered another loss to bring their record down to 2-8 this season. The only team with a worse record in the league is their opponent tonight the Toronto Raptors. The Bucks are 7.5-point home favorites, implied for 116.25 points. Now would be a great time for a Bucks blowout victory, with Giannis leading the way at his $11,300 price tag.
Giannis is currently leading the league in scoring with 31.6 points per game and is tied for second in rebounds with 12.8 per game. His 35.7% usage rate is second to LaMelo Ball this season, and he is coming off a game where he scored over 70 DraftKings points. Giannis has the highest projected ceiling on this eight-game slate and will be easy to fit into all lineup builds with many value plays on this slate tonight.
Top Value: Andrew Wiggins vs. Dallas Mavericks – $5,300 DraftKings
Warriors’ forward Andrew Wiggins has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer this season. In his eight games played, Wiggins either has a double-digit positive or a double-digit negative Plus/Minus. We are hoping for the positive version tonight in his matchup against the Mavericks. Wiggins is questionable with an injury he dealt with earlier, so if he were to miss that would provide a boost to Jonathan Kuminga.
Wiggins is shooting a career-best 41% from behind the arc this season, which provides a boost to his ceiling. However, the main reason Wiggins is popping so much in our model is because his salary has dropped to $5,300. That is over $1,000 cheaper than where he started the season. At this cheap price tag with dual forward eligibility, Wiggins has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo at Detroit Pistons – $8,000 DraftKings
Bam Adebayo has seen a dip in his scoring production and shooting percentages but still has a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games. He has shot an uncharacteristic 38.6% from the field after posting well over 50% in each of his past seven seasons. Expect Adebayo to regress back to his averages, and that could easily happen in this spot against the Pistons, with Jalen Duren still questionable to play.
Another boost for Adebayo is Jimmy Butler being out due to an ankle injury. With Butler off the floor this season, Adebayo has a +3.02% usage rate, which is the second-highest on the Heat (per our Trends tool). Adebayo has the second-highest projected ceiling and projected Plus/Minus at the center position. His $8,000 is simply too cheap without Butler in this matchup. Expect a bounce-back Adebayo performance.
Top Value: Kevon Looney vs. Dallas Mavericks – $3,100 DraftKings
Despite only playing 16.2 minutes per game off the bench, Warriors’ center Kevon Looney has been very productive. He leads the team with 8.2 rebounds per game and is egregiously priced at $3,100. Looney has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game this season. He has one double-double but has flirted with a few more. If Wiggins were to sit, that would make Looney look even better on this slate.
The matchup against the Mavericks’ frontcourt is great for someone like Looney. He will be able to gobble up a plethora of rebounds. The Mavericks rank 26th in rebounding percentage at 48.2% and are allowing 46.3 rebounds per game. Even with a modest 16-minute projection, Looney is a strong value in all formats. The matchup is fantastic, and Looney will have a chance to flirt with another double-double.
