The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Golden State Warriors – $12,600 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
This Mavericks and Warriors game features an epic point guard matchup between Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry. These two studs are leading the league in scoring averaging over 31 points per game. Doncic gets the nod between the two when it comes to the ceiling as he leads the Mavericks in points, rebounds, and assists for the third-straight season. Through 18 games, Doncic is averaging a career-high 33.1 points and a 37.6% usage rate per game.
The Warriors defense has taken a major hit so far this season. They rank 22nd in Defensive Rating allowing 117.3 points per game, which ranks as the third-highest in the league. This is also a major pace increase spot for Doncic, as the Mavericks rank last in pace while the Warriors rank second.
Despite being the highest-priced player on the slate, Doncic is shooting a career-best 50.4% from the field and should feast in this matchup against the Warriors.
Top Value: Reggie Jackson at Portland Trail Blazers – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Reggie Jackson is the value point guard to target on this small three-game slate. The Clippers will be playing without Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, John Wall, and Luke Kennard. Consequently, they have the lowest implied total on the slate at 104 points. Despite the low total, there is value to get to on this team, and we’ll start with Jackson, who put together a string of three-straight 20-point games two weeks ago, showing that he still has upside.
The Trail Blazers defensive rating continues to drop as they come back to reality after a hot start. This game has the lowest total by far on this slate at 211.5 points, but Jackson is projected to play over 31 minutes tonight as he has the highest projected Plus/Minus at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel outside of Doncic.
Among the healthy players, Jackson has the second-highest usage rate on the Clippers and is a great option tonight.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anfernee Simons vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
After a hot start, the Trail Blazers have lost five of their last six games as Damian Lillard remains without an update with his calf injury. Anfernee Simons has by far the highest ceiling at the shooting guard position if Lillard is going to remain out. Using our On/Off Tool, Simons has a team-high +4.5% usage rate and a +4.0 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 280 minutes this season with Lillard off the floor. He is averaging a career-high 23.2 points per game.
The Trail Blazers are 3.5-point home favorites against the Clippers who come in short-handed. They have a 107.5 implied total as they try to get back on the winning track. Where to attack this defense is on the perimeter. The Clippers are allowing the ninth-most 3-point attempts per game this season. That should set up very well for Simons who is making a career-best 3.9 3-pointers per game, which ranks second behind Curry in the entire league.
Top Value: Norman Powell at Portland Trail Blazers – $5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Norman Powell has guard and forward eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him one of the easiest players to roster on the slate. He will likely come with very high ownership, as Powell has the highest usage rate on the Clippers without George and Leonard in the lineup. Powell has scored double-digit points in 11 of his last 12 games, attempting 14.4 field goals per game over his last five games.
Powell’s salary has increased with George and Leonard out, but he still has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position on both sites. He has been rebounding the ball much better and has two assists in each of his last two games. If Powell is going to shoot nearly 20 field goal attempts tonight, he will more than likely be in the optimal lineup.
Jackson and Powell are the best pieces to get to on this Clippers team.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: RJ Barrett at Detroit Pistons – $6,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
With no small forward options to pay up for, RJ Barrett has the highest ceiling at this position despite being priced in the mid-range on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The addition of Jalen Brunson has hurt the production of Barrett this season, but he also just hasn’t been shooting the ball well at all. Barrett is averaging 18.6 points per game while shooting 40.1% from the field and 26.8% from behind the arc. If his shot starts to fall, he will easily pay off this price tag.
This is a great spot for Barrett to get back on track as the Knicks have the highest implied total on the slate at 115 points. They are five-point road favorites against the Pistons, who have the second-lowest Defensive Rating in the league (116.9), entering tonight’s games. The Pistons are also allowing opponents to shoot 48.2% from the field.
Barrett has a 25.1% usage rate, so all we need is for his shot to fall tonight, and he’ll be a great option.
Top Value: Justice Winslow vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
The player with the highest projected Plus/Minus on both sites in our Tournament Model is Trail Blazers forward Justice Winslow. Over the last three games, Winslow has played 37 minutes per game while attempting double-digit field goals in each game. Winslow has scored over 25 DraftKings points in each game as he has stuffed the stat sheet averaging 8.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game.
Our model has Winslow projected to play 36 minutes, which is making him look like the best value on the slate. This is a tough slate mainly because most of the value plays are from this game that has a 211.5 total, but with so many players out, it is difficult to ignore.
Winslow has had a positive Plus/Minus on both sites in three-straight games, and expect that streak to continue tonight with Lillard and Keon Johnson likely out of the lineup.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jerami Grant vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $7,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Similar to small forward, there is a lack of pay-up options at power forward as Jerami Grant has the highest ceiling at this position despite being $700 cheaper than Julius Randle on DraftKings tonight. At his $7,300 salary, Grant needs to be prioritized on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating. Simons remains option No. 1 in this Trail Blazers offense, but Grant isn’t too far behind as he is averaging 21.5 points per game this season.
In his first season with the Trail Blazers, Grant has put together some huge performances. Two games ago, Grant had 44 points while attempting an absurd 28 free throws. In back-to-back games, Grant has attempted 22 field goals per game and has a 34.1% usage rate… He is starting to find his groove in this offense without Lillard. Grant has also made 13 3-pointers over his last three games.
He looks phenomenal on DraftKings at this price tag.
Top Value: Nicolas Batum at Portland Trail Blazers – $3,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Arguably the weakest value position on the slate comes at power forward. Our model suggests we go right back to the Clippers with Nicolas Batum, who rates out slightly better on both sites than teammate Robert Covington. Both rank near the minimum on DraftKings while being a little priced up and out of a comfort zone on FanDuel. Both Batum and Covington will come off the bench, but Batum has actually been in the rotation more frequently.
Batum is averaging 4.4 points and 4.0 rebounds while playing 18.1 minutes per game. He can randomly pop off for a ceiling game like he did against the Mavericks a couple of weeks ago, making all seven of his 3-point attempts for a season-high 22 points.
Center
Top Ceiling: Jusuf Nurkic vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $6,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Another Trail Blazers starter worth getting exposure to with Lillard out is center Jusuf Nurkic. He will battle with Ivica Zubac, who is coming off of a ridiculous 31-point, 29-rebound game against the Pacers. This is a lesser version of the battle between Doncic and Curry, as these are the top two center options on this slate by far. Nurkic didn’t have a bad last game in his own right, with a double-double scoring 17 points and hauling down 14 rebounds.
Over the last four games, Nurkic has had a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings while averaging 18.8 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while shooting 54.7% from the field. During that time, Nurkic is also averaging 33 minutes per game, which is always important when discussing him. He has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season, so if he is going to play in the mid-30s in minutes, he will be one of the best mid-range players on the slate.
Top Value: Mitchell Robinson at Detroit Pistons – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
One of the best value plays on the slate, and easily the best value center, is Mitchell Robinson. His salary on DraftKings at $4,600 is way too cheap, as Robinson has a 96% Bargain Rating. In his last two games since making his way back from an injury, Robinson is averaging 14 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per game while shooting 85.7% from the field. The minutes are also starting to creep back up, making Robinson look that much better.
Not only do the Pistons have one of the worst defenses in the league, but they also are a very poor rebounding team. They rank 22nd in Rebounding Percentage this season and also allow 54.2 points per game in the paint, which ranks as the second-highest in the league. Robinson also has incredible block upside, as he has seven in his last two games. Prioritize him on DraftKings, but he is a great way to get different on FanDuel as well.
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