The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox at Memphis Grizzlies – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Priced at $9,600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, De’Aaron Fox is the top point guard on the slate. Fox already has five 30-point games this season, as he is averaging a career-high 25.4 points per game while shooting an absurd 55.8% from the field. Fox has a 65.1% true shooting percentage as he is also averaging a career-high 38.2% from behind the arc and 84.5% from the charity stripe.
After an 0-4 start to the season, the Kings have won six-straight games while averaging 131.5 points per game during that time. They lead the league in scoring as they have the highest-implied total on the slate at 117.75 points. This game against the Grizzlies has a slate-high 233.5 total despite Ja Morant and Desmond Bane being doubtful to play. Fox leads the Kings in points, assists, and steals and will be filling up the stat sheet again tonight.
Top Value: Bones Hyland vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Projected to play a little over 30 minutes, our Tournament Model absolutely loves Bones Hyland tonight. He has by far the highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray doubtful to play due to the COVID protocols, Hyland will continue to be a focal point in the Nuggets offense. Hyland has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on both sites in eight of his last nine games played.
The Nuggets are 5.5-point home favorites implied for 115 points against the Pistons, who have the second-worst Defensive Rating (117.7) entering tonight’s games. Even when Jokic and Murray were playing, Hyland held a team-high 31% usage rate. Over the last three games that Hyland has played, all three were without Jokic, and two were without Murray.
During that time, he is averaging 22.3 points per game with a 33.8% usage rate. According to our model, Hyland is the best play on both sites against this very poor Pistons defense.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
As long as Chris Paul remains out, Devin Booker is worth getting exposure to in tournaments. After getting injured on November 7th, Paul has missed six-straight games and will be out once again tonight. During that stretch, Booker is averaging 28.3 points and 7.2 assists per game with two double-doubles. Booker has made at least two 3-pointers in each game as a fantastic matchup against the Lakers at home awaits him.
After leading the league last season with a great home record, the Suns have picked up right where they left off, winning eight of their first nine home games this season. The Lakers have yet to win a road game as the Suns are six-point favorites, implied for 115.5 points. The Lakers also play at the second-fastest Pace in the league. Using our On/Off tool, Booker has a +3.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Paul and Cameron Johnson off the floor this season.
This is a great spot to target Booker against a Lakers team that continues to struggle.
Top Value: Alec Burks at Denver Nuggets – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
The Pistons have a league-worst 3-15 record, as they will be playing without their star point guard Cade Cunningham for the foreseeable future. They have lost seven straight games, but at least are intriguing options on this slate due to the high game total against the Kings. Shooting guard Alec Burks is averaging 15.4 points per game over the last five games since he returned from injury. He is second behind Cunningham with a 25.3% usage rate.
Burks is only projected to play 25 minutes, but that is more than enough time to pay off this cheap salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the last five games, Burks is averaging 23.6 DraftKings points per game. He is attempting 9.6 field goal attempts and 6.6 free throw attempts per game. With his aggressive nature and playing without Cunningham, expect Burks to do whatever he can off the bench to keep the Pistons competitive tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Phoenix Suns – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
LeBron James has yet to play in a game since November 9th but continues to be questionable with various injuries. It is tough to know what James is thinking moving forward, but with the lack of star power on this four-game slate, he needs to be mentioned in case he suits up. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard — if James plays — he would likely be one of the better pay-up options on the slate.
Through 10 games played this season, James was averaging 24.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game. Father Time remains undefeated as James has sat out four-straight games while the Lakers are surprisingly 3-1 during that time. The Lakers are 7.5-point road underdogs against the Suns, who are nearly impossible to beat at home. If James is a go, he makes for a great pay-up option.
If he is out, continue to roster Anthony Davis.
Top Value: Bruce Brown vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Another Nuggets player who benefits greatly from the absence of Jokic and Murray is Bruce Brown. He is point guard and small forward eligible on DraftKings and has the highest projected ceiling at small forward tonight. On FanDuel, Brown is only shooting guard eligible, but he has been playing extremely well recently. Over the last five games, Brown has averaged a +10.8 DraftKings and a +13.2 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Brown’s salary has risen on both sites, but as long as Jokic and Murray are out, he will be starting at point guard and playing well over 30 minutes tonight. In his first season with the Nuggets, Brown is averaging a career-high 10.8 points per game, as he has scored double-digit points in five-straight games. His peripherals have increased, which shouldn’t be a surprise as Jokic, who leads the team in nearly every statistical category remains out.
Like Hyland, Brown is one of the best plays on the slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Philadelphia 76ers – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Kevin Durant has been the leading scorer for the Nets in 11-straight games. Even though Kyrie Irving has now returned and Ben Simmons entered the starting lineup, Durant is still the focal point of this offense. Expect Irving to play more than the 26 minutes in his first game back, but Durant continues to produce at a high level. The only problem now is his salary hasn’t adjusted back down to Simmons starting and Irving back in the lineup.
It has been a tough start to the season for the Nets, but they are slowly working everyone back and have won six of their last nine games. They are nearly double-digit favorites on the road against the 76ers, who are playing without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and James Harden. This is Simmons’ first game back in Philadelphia since he left, so expect Durant to take the pressure off of him, especially on the offensive end of the court tonight.
Top Value: Bojan Bogdanovic at Denver Nuggets – $6,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
The veteran Bojan Bogdanovic is leading the Pistons in scoring this season, averaging a career-high 20.5 points per game. It is weird seeing Bogdanovic on this rebuilding team, but as long as he is here playing without Cunningham, Bogdanovic will receive all of the usage that he can handle. He is almost in the 50-40-90 club as he is shooting 51% from the field, 41.1% from behind the arc, and 87.5% from the free throw line.
Prioritize Bogdanovic on FanDuel at his very cheap $5,800 price tag. He has finished with a positive Plus/Minus in six-straight games on FanDuel with his small forward and power forward eligibility. In his first and likely only season with the Pistons, Bogdanovic has been having one of his better seasons with a 23.3% usage rate. On this four-game slate, Bogdanovic looks like one of the better value plays, especially on FanDuel.
Center
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Phoenix Suns – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
The status of LeBron James remains up in the air, but Anthony Davis has been incredible with James off the floor throughout his career, but especially this season. In five games without James this season, Davis is averaging a massive double-double with 31.6 points and 14.0 rebounds per game. In the last three games specifically, Davis has averaged 35.0 points and 17.3 rebounds per game with a 37.4% usage rate.
Through 16 games, the Suns have the eighth-highest Defensive Rating in the league while averaging only 107.9 points per game. They also rank second in the league allowing just 44.9 points per game in the paint this season. Even in a tough matchup, the Lakers have won three-straight games, as Davis has done everything he can to keep this team afloat.
With such a large usage rate and massive production, it is tough to ignore Davis despite the matchup.
Top Value: Paul Reed at Brooklyn Nets – $3,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Finding a 76ers value piece on this slate is tough, but Paul Reed might be our best bet. He has played 12 minutes in back-to-back games while averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. With Embiid out, it is expected that Reed will get more playing time, but with head coach Doc Rivers it is anyone’s guess. Reed is center-only eligible on both sites but is much cheaper on DraftKings, where he is preferred given the roster flexibility.
Our model has Reed expected to play a season-high 17 minutes tonight, which would make him one of the better values on the slate at this DraftKings price tag. Keeping Reed out of foul trouble is one of the biggest concerns, but at this salary, he doesn’t need to do much to exceed value. Over the last two games, even with Embiid playing, Reed has averaged 6.5 potential rebounds per game. If he reaches 20 minutes, Reed has a chance to break the slate.
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