The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $12,800 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
Luka Doncic is coming off his fourth triple-double of the season, as he had 42 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists. He finished with a season-high 83.25 DraftKings points, which has catapulted his salary to well over $12,000 on both sites. Doncic is the highest-priced player by far on both sites, but has the highest ceiling on the slate in our Tournament Model. The price tag is expensive, but Doncic has been unbelievable this season.
It is crazy how Doncic continues to improve each and every year. He leads the Mavericks in nearly every statistic while averaging a league and career-high 34.3 points and a 38.9% usage rate. The Mavericks have the lowest pace over the past two years, in large part due to how slow Doncic plays.
However, that hasn’t limited his upside whatsoever, so there is no need to be intimidated by this slate-low 211-point game total.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson vs. New York Knicks – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Who would have thought on a five-game slate that the Utah Jazz would have the highest implied total? With a 10-5 record, the Jazz have the most wins in the Western Conference. They have yet to lose at home this season as they will take on the Knicks as 4.5-point favorites implied for 117.5 points. This is a great spot to target the Jazz, as the Knicks rank 24th in Defensive Rating and eighth in Pace so far this season.
After having spent several years coming off the bench, Jordan Clarkson has started every game for the Jazz. He is averaging 18.1 points per game while averaging career-highs in rebounds and assists with over four a piece. Clarkson has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. He leads the Jazz with a 25.8% usage rate and has taken over 15 field goal attempts per game.
Great spot to target Clarkson’s increased production on both sites.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Dallas Mavericks – $10,200 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Pairing Doncic and Paul George in a game stack may be difficult on DraftKings but is very possible on FanDuel due to George’s $9,400 salary. George only played 29 minutes last night — he should be well rested on this back end of a back-to-back. He had 22 points, eight rebounds, and five assists, but at this salary, George will need much more tonight. Without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup, George still has a very high ceiling.
The Clippers have a slate-low 102 implied point total playing against the slow and methodical Mavericks. George only has three games all season where he scored over 50 DraftKings points. However, in tournaments, we are playing for that ceiling game, and George has a game already this season where he put up over 75 DraftKings points.
Expect George to play around 35+ minutes and attempt to go toe-to-toe with Doncic.
Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. New York Knicks – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Staying with the Jazz value, Collin Sexton has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. At $4,400, he is a cheap way to get exposure to the highest-scoring offense on the slate. After seeing under 20 minutes per game in the month of October, Sexton has played over 25 per game in November while his production has increased rapidly. Sexton has scored 15 or more points in eight of his last nine games.
In his first season with the Jazz, he has come off the bench in every game except for one. He may be averaging a career-low 14 points per game, but he is second on the team in usage rate with 25.3%. There isn’t a lot of true price-point value on this slate, but Sexton is one of the better options. Prioritize him on DraftKings at his cheap salary and 84% Bargain Rating, and he can also be played alongside Clarkson in this great game environment.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Keldon Johnson at Portland Trail Blazers – $7,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
The small forward position is once again the weakest on the slate. Durant is eligible on FanDuel at small forward, along with a few others, but on DraftKings, the most expensive healthy option at this position is Keldon Johnson. The Spurs are playing on a back-to-back after getting waxed by the Warriors by 37 points. Johnson was terrible at shooting. Hitting 5-of-15 from the field and only had one rebound and one assist. Luckily, it is a new day!
Hopefully, the Spurs can bounce back in what should be a much easier matchup against the Trail Blazers. Luckily in the blowout, Johnson only played 19 minutes, so like George, he will be well-rested for this game. Point guard Tre Jones got ruled out last night will an illness, so his status for tonight is up in the air. Getting Jones back would help keep this game competitive, and having a pass-first point guard would help Johnson.
This position is gross, but Johnson can reach close to 50 DraftKings points in a ceiling game.
Top Value: Joe Harris at Sacramento Kings – $4,100 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Playing over 30 minutes in each of his last five games, Joe Harris is the value small forward to target. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus for both sites, as he is projected to play 31 minutes again tonight. Harris hasn’t done much since returning to the lineup, but he can still get hot from behind the arc. He has made at least one 3-pointer in each game and has made two 3-pointers in four-straight games giving him some value.
The Kings are allowing their opponents to shoot 38% from downtown, which is the third-highest in the league this season. Harris has a usage rate of over 20% just once all season, but if he looks to take more shots with Durant getting all of the defensive attention, he can pay off this very cheap salary.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Sacramento Kings – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
With Kyrie Irving out and Ben Simmons questionable, Kevin Durant is going to be one of the highest-ceiling players on the slate. Durant is averaging over 30 points per game for the first time since the 2013-’14 season while shooting over 50% from the field for the 10th straight year. If Simmons is out tonight, Durant needs to be considered as one of the best plays on the slate.
Using our On/Off tool, Durant had a team-high +5.4% usage rate and a +7.1 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Irving off the floor last season. This TNT night game against the Kings has a 224-point total, as the Nets are only two-point road underdogs. The Kings have the fifth-worst Defensive Rating (114.3), entering tonight’s games. They are allowing opponents to shoot a league-high 49.6% from the field. Expect Durant to be efficient and dominant tonight.
Top Value: Obi Toppin at Utah Jazz – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
The Knicks may only have a 112.5 implied total, but getting exposure to their side of the ball makes sense with this fantastic game environment that features a 230 point total. Being priced at $3,900 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Obi Toppin is another cheap way to get exposure to this game. Despite playing only 17.8 minutes, Toppin is averaging double-digit points for the first time in his three-year career while shooting 40% from behind the arc.
Where Toppin can cause havoc is in transition. The Jazz allow the second-most transition possessions in the league, while Toppin has scored the second-most transition baskets per game and the second-most points per possession on the Knicks. He has played over 20 minutes in three of his last four games and has shown upside in rebounding and scoring the ball. All Toppin needs is a few more minutes, and he will easily pay off this salary.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Brooklyn Nets – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Another ceiling player who is coming off of his best game of the ceiling is center Domantas Sabonis. He finished with a massive double-double scoring 26 points and grabbing 22 rebounds while dishing out eight assists. Sabonis had a season-high 66.5 DraftKings points as his 22 rebounds tied the second-most in his career. He has the third-highest usage rate on the Kings, as he leads the team in both rebounds and assists this season.
After a slow start, the Kings have won four straight and six of their last eight games. As two-point favorites, Sabonis will be one of the better pay-up options, especially at a weaker position. The Nets have the second-worst rebounding percentage in the league this season making this a great spot for Sabonis on the glass. He has averaged a double-double for five-straight years so expect another one tonight in this matchup.
Top Value: Nic Claxton at Sacramento Kings – $5,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Staying in that same game, Nic Claxton is the value center to look at tonight. He was injured last game and did not return after only playing 16 minutes. Claxton was well on his way to another double-double as he has really taken this starting role and ran with it. Through 14 games, Claxton is averaging a career-high 11.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while shooting a ridiculous 72.4% from the field.
This is a great spot to target Claxton because the Kings get dominated in the paint. They have allowed 55 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks tied for the second-most in the league. Another bonus to playing Claxton is his block upside. He is averaging 2.1 blocks per game, which ranks second in the league. If Claxton can stay out of foul trouble, expect 30+ minutes tonight with tons of upside at his deflated salary due to a minor injury.
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