The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. San Antonio Spurs – $10,300 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
The point guard position is absolutely loaded tonight, with five players priced at $10,000 or more on DraftKings and four on FanDuel. However, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has by far the best matchup of the group, playing at home against the Spurs. Gilgeous-Alexander has picked up right where he left off last season, shooting well over 50% from the field while averaging 29.4 points per game. His peripherals have increased as he is averaging a career-high in rebounds and assists per game.
Everything seems to be aligning for Gilgeous-Alexander to have a ceiling game. The Spurs rank 29th in Defensive Rating and are in the top eight, along with the Thunder in Pace. Expect a flurry of points in this matchup as the total currently sits at 237 points, with the Thunder being a near double-digit favorite. Gilgeous-Alexander is a premier pay-up option on both sites.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
The Utah Jazz are going to be a great source of value on this 10-game slate. It all starts with Jordan Clarkson, who leads the team with a 26.7% usage rate as he is averaging a career-high 4.9 assists per game this season. Clarkson may finally be turning the corner on his shooting percentages as he has shot 50% from the field and a perfect 14-for-14 from the free-throw line in his last two games. Over that time, Clarkson is averaging 29.5 points and 44.1 DraftKings points per game.
Clarkson is noticeably trending up and will get a juicy matchup against a depleted Trail Blazers backcourt. The Jazz are six-point home favorites despite playing without their starting center Walker Kessler. That will give a significant boost to Clarkson, who has a team-high +1.95% usage rate and a +7.14 DraftKings Plus/Minus with Kessler off the floor this season.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at New Orleans Pelicans – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Kyrie Irving has the highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models tonight among all shooting guards for both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Mavericks just played the Pelicans on Sunday, and Irving had a massive game with 35 points, shooting 13-for-20 from the field and 7-for-10 from behind the arc. Irving finished with 58 DraftKings points despite only playing 29 minutes. A repeat performance is on the table in this rematch as the Pelicans are still dealing with a ton of injuries in their backcourt.
Luka Doncic still leads the Mavericks in nearly every statistic, but Irving is right there behind him with a 27.4% usage rate. Not only has Irving been scoring the ball, but he has recorded at least five assists in all but one game this season, including two 10-assist games. Prioritize Irving on FanDuel, where he has 11 Pro Trends and looks like a strong value play tonight.
Top Value: Keyonte George vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $5,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
When looking for a cheaper Jazz guard to get exposure to, look no further than Keyonte George. As previously mentioned, the matchup is incredible for George, who is not afraid to let it fly. The rookie from Baylor has had a near double-double the past two games while averaging seven points and 10 assists per game. At $4,600 with a 94% Bargain Rating, George looks exceptional on FanDuel. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and is simply way too cheap tonight.
George is really starting to see his minutes ramp up as he has played 30+ in back-to-back games. In those two games, he leads the Jazz by a comfortable margin with 12 potential assists per game. Being a willing passer is providing George with more playing time. He can also score, as he has made at least one 3-pointer in every game this season.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Golden State Warriors – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Anthony Edwards is starting to cook as he has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games. Over that stretch, Edwards is averaging 31.2 points per game with a 36.4% usage rate. Through his first nine games this season, Edwards has posted a career-high in points, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage. He has led the Timberwolves to a 7-2 record and a spot where they are only two-point road underdogs against the Warriors in a rematch from Sunday night.
Edwards has been on record many times saying how much he loves playing the Warriors. He has the stats to back it up, as he scored 33 points against them Sunday night and scored 48 on the road against them two years ago. Currently projected for minuscule ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, Edwards is a fantastic way to get different on this 10-game slate.
Top Value: Bogdan Bogdanovic at Detroit Pistons – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Trae Young has been ruled out for tonight’s game, which will give a huge boost to Bogdan Bogdanovic and a few other Hawks players. Young leads the team in points, assists, minutes, and usage rate, so there is plenty of love to go around. It helps the matchup is also elite against the Pistons, who rank 20th in Defensive Rating this season. Bogdanovic is projected for the highest Plus/Minus on DraftKings tonight. His $4,900 salary is drawing a ton of ownership, which will keep climbing.
Bogdanovic was already playing well with five consecutive games, scoring double-digit points and four straight games with a positive Plus/Minus. In six games without Young last season, Bogdanovic saw his usage rate and production increase across the board. Prioritize him on DraftKings with his cheap price tag, as Bogdanovic is a strong play in all formats tonight.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Memphis Grizzlies – $10,100 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
With power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel, Anthony Davis has the fourth-highest projected ceiling on the slate. His outlook would look even better if LeBron James sat out again tonight. James was unable to play in Sunday’s game, and Davis took full advantage of the extra workload with a 30-point, 13-rebound double-double where he added six assists and three blocks. His usage rate and production rises significantly without James in the lineup, so monitor his status here.
This is the second straight year that Davis is averaging 12+ rebounds per game. With so many injuries to their frontcourt, the Grizzlies are not a difficult matchup as years past. Given the potential for extra usage and production, Davis looks poised for a big game. His price tag is much better on DraftKings, but the positional flexibility on FanDuel is also beneficial.
Top Value: Michael Porter Jr. vs. LA Clippers – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Michael Porter Jr. is significantly underpriced on DraftKings at $6,700 in his current role. Jamal Murray remains out for the Nuggets as Porter Jr. has taken on more minutes and a larger scoring responsibility. In his three games without Murray this season, Porter Jr. is averaging a near double-double with 21.3 points and nine rebounds per game. He has five consecutive games with a positive Plus/Minus while scoring 23 points per game and shooting 52.3% from the field and 40.5% from deep.
The Clippers have elite wing defenders, but given Porter Jr.’s new role, he should have no trouble still getting up nearly 20 field goal attempts. The Nuggets are 4.5-point home favorites against the Clippers, who have yet to win a road game and have lost five-straight games. Projected for around 30% ownership on DraftKings, Porter Jr. is a strong play in all formats.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. LA Clippers – $12,200 DraftKings, $12,800 FanDuel
Similar to the point guard position, center is loaded with high-end talent tonight. However, with Joel Embiid questionable to play, Nikola Jokic is easily the pay-up option to target. Jokic has become a cheat code at this point without Jamal Murray in the lineup. In the Nuggets three-point loss last game, Jokic had a massive triple-double with 36 points, 21 rebounds, and 13 assists. He put up a season-high 84.75 DraftKings points as he shot 13-for-26 from the field and made all eight free throws.
In his three games played without Murray this season, Jokic’s production has skyrocketed. He is averaging 35.3 points, 16 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game. Over that time, Jokic has seen his playing time and usage rate balloon to 37.1 minutes and a 36.5% usage rate per game. As more value opens up throughout the day, it will be easier to fit Jokic into lineup builds.
Top Value: Robert Covington vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
If Joel Embiid does end up sitting, the 76ers don’t have many bodies to play center and will likely go to a smaller lineup with Robert Covington. Currently, Covington is projected for the highest ownership on the slate at nearly 50% on DraftKings. Priced under $4,000 on both sites, Covington is the value pick to get to tonight, along with the cheaper pieces from the Hawks. Since coming to the 76ers, Covington has averaged 15 minutes per game and slightly over 10 DraftKings points.
However, at his 28-minute projection tonight, Covington looks incredible as a value play. Not only is Embiid questionable, but Kelly Oubre Jr. and Nic Batum have already been ruled out, paving the way for more Covington minutes. His shot hasn’t been falling yet, but Covington does have shooting and defensive upside to pay off his salary with ease on this slate.
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