The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Sacramento Kings – $11,200 DraftKings
Continuing to lead the league in scoring with a career-high 32.8 points per game and rank second in steals, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the top point guard to target on tonight’s eight-game slate. He draws the slight edge over Cade Cunningham due to Cunningham being questionable to play and also could benefit greatly because his teammates Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are also questionable to play.
If both Williams and Holmgren are ruled out tonight, that would provide a significant boost to Gilgeous-Alexander, who has a team-high +4.41% usage rate and a +8.95 DraftKings Plus/Minus without Williams and Holmgren on the floor (per our Trends tool). The Thunder are double-digit favorites against the Kings, who rank 20th in defensive rating. This is a great spot for Gilgeous-Alexander that could get even better.
Top Value: Scottie Pippen Jr. at Utah Jazz – $5,000 DraftKings
The point guard position is absolutely stacked with value options tonight. However, leading the group is the Grizzlies’ current starting point guard, Scottie Pippen Jr. Ja Morant remains out, and Pippen Jr. has taken full advantage of his starting role. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 11 games. Over that time, Pippen Jr. is averaging 11.6 points, 4.9 assists, 2.1 steals, and 29.0 DraftKings points per game.
Pippen Jr. leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus and projected ownership at 50%. He is the premier value play to target in all lineup builds. The Grizzlies are double-digit road favorites against the Jazz with the highest implied total on the slate at 125.25 points. This is the best game environment to target, and Pippen Jr. is a cheap way to do so. He will be a staple in cash games and an elite tournament value play.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane at Utah Jazz – $8,900 DraftKings
Staying with the Grizzlies’ backcourt, Desmond Bane will also get a significant boost without Morant able to play tonight. In his last four games without Morant on the floor, Bane is averaging 24 points, seven rebounds, five assists, and 44.25 DraftKings points per game. Bane’s scoring numbers have dipped slightly this season overall, but he is shooting a career-best 48.6% from the field and 39.1% from behind the arc.
The Jazz are already eliminated from the postseason and have won just one of their last 13 games. They rank 29th in both defensive rating and points allowed at 119.8 per game. This is an ideal matchup for everyone on the Grizzlies, including elite shooting guard. Bane leads the position in projected ceiling and is drawing over 30% projected ownership. Feel free to play both Bane and Pippen Jr. together tonight.
Top Value: Cameron Payne vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,600 DraftKings
With both Jalen Brunson and Miles McBride out for the Knicks, veteran guard Cameron Payne is projected to draw his third start of the season. Payne is coming off a great game, stuffing the stat sheet with 13 points, seven assists, four rebounds, and one steal, accumulating 31.5 DraftKings points. He was a cheap $3,100 and has jumped to $4,600 for tonight’s expected start. Even with the price increase, Payne is still one of the best values on the slate with a 21% projected usage rate and a 35% projected ownership.
The Knicks are also another team that is a double-digit favorite against the Mavericks, who continue to fight for the last play-in tournament spot in the Western Conference. Payne has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in three consecutive games and has a great chance to make it four straight in this matchup.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Deni Avdija vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $7,700 DraftKings
It has been another lost season for the Trail Blazers, but they have won four of their last five games. In his first season with the Trail Blazers, Deni Avdija is averaging a career-high 15.9 points per game and has been dominant recently. In the month of March, Avdija has four games exceeding 60 DraftKings points, and in his last three games against the Grizzlies, Nuggets, and Celtics, Avdija is averaging an absurd 28 points, 11.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 57.9 DraftKings points per game, while shooting 54% from the field.
DeAndre Ayton and Jerami Grant remain out, which pushes Avdija’s projected usage rate to 25%. The Trail Blazers are only 6.5-point home underdogs against the best team in the league, who is sitting their star, Donovan Mitchell. At $7,700, it is worth getting exposure to the best player on the Trail Blazers.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson at Detroit Pistons – $4,600 DraftKings
Since the All-Star Break, Keldon Johnson has been a completely different player. It obviously helps that Victor Wembanyama has not been able to play, but Johnson is averaging 15.2 points per game, while shooting 54.8% from the field and 40.6% from behind the arc. Johnson has come off the bench in every game this season, but his playing time has ramped up. He also benefits greatly without Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox on the floor with a +2.97% usage rate and a team-high +4.63 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The Spurs are double-digit road underdogs, but have won three straight and five of their last seven games. Johnson leads the small forward position in projected Plus/Minus and is drawing around 15% projected ownership. Despite coming off the bench, Johnson is a fantastic value play in all lineup builds.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at Charlotte Hornets – $9,800 DraftKings
Going back to the well with Paolo Banchero after he scored 30+ points for the third-straight game and the fifth time in his last six games. However, due to Banchero’s high price tag, his fantasy production is lacking slightly due to his peripherals. This is a great opportunity to get back on track against a Hornets team that ranks 23rd in defensive rating. In his one game against the Hornets this season that resulted in a Magic 16-point win, Banchero led the team with 24 points, eight rebounds, and six assists in 30 minutes.
Banchero leads all power forwards in projected ceiling by around 10 fantasy points. He is projected for a 33.9% usage rate, and his floor of 40 fantasy points is difficult to ignore. Even at an elevated price tag, Banchero is a strong pay-up option in all formats. Expect another 30-point game from him in this spot.
Top Value: Dean Wade at Portland Trail Blazers – $3,100 DraftKings
When dumpster diving for a value option, look no further than Dean Wade. The Cavaliers’ role player has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer recently. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last five games. In those three ceiling performances, Wade is averaging 18.3 DraftKings points per game compared to only 8.1 DraftKings points per game in his two floor performances. However, at a $3,100 price tag, Wade does not have to do much to return value and helps get to a stars and scrubs lineup build.
Wade is projected to come off the bench and play around 24 minutes tonight. He only has a 10% usage rate projection, but is worth getting exposure to the Cavaliers’ 117.75-point team total. The Trail Blazers are playing better recently, but if this game gets out of hand, Wade is going to get even more minutes.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Dallas Mavericks – $10,000 DraftKings
Leading the slate in projected ceiling is Knicks’ center Karl-Anthony Towns. He will benefit greatly with the absence of Brunson and McBride. With those two off the floor this season, Towns has a team-high +9.03% usage rate and a +7.78 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Towns has been an incredible addition to the Knicks this offseason averaging 24.5 points and a career-high 12.9 rebounds per game, while shooting 52.5% from the field and 42.5% from downtown. He is the best pay-up option on this eight-game slate.
Mavericks’ center Anthony Davis returned from injury last night and played 27 minutes. This is a back-to-back, so make sure to monitor his status because that would make Towns look even better if he is out. Towns is drawing 20% projected ownership, which feels a little low with this matchup and opportunity.
Top Value: Kel’el Ware vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,500 DraftKings
After a 10-game losing streak, the Heat finally got a victory Sunday night against the Hornets. They are still highly likely to make the play-in tournament, but the Heat have dropped considerably in the Eastern Conference standings. Rookie Kel’el Ware continues to be a lone bright spot for the Heat, being active on both sides of the court. Over his last five games, Ware is averaging a double-double with 14.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 34.5 DraftKings points per game while recording seven blocks and five steals in that time.
The Warriors have been a strong interior defensive team, but Ware’s value is difficult to ignore. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games, and his playing time has been ramping up. Ware is projected to play around 30 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off his $5,500 salary.
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