The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: James Harden at New Orleans Pelicans – $9,900 DraftKings
The guard position on this four-game slate is filled with great options at the top of the pricing tier. Leading the group is veteran James Harden, who has been dominant recently. In his last four games, Harden is averaging 31.2 points, 9.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 56.8 DraftKings points per game. Priced under $10,000 Harden leads the position in projected ceiling and the position in projected ownership.
Not only is Harden playing at an elite level recently, but he also draws a matchup against a tanking Pelicans team. The Clippers have won three straight games and are seven-point road favorites against the Pelicans, who rank dead last in defensive rating at 118.5 per game. Cade Cunningham looks like a great pay-up point guard to target, but Harden gets the slight edge due to recent performance and matchup.
Top Value: Jose Alvarado vs. LA Clippers – $4,600 DraftKings
Opposite of Harden in this matchup is Pelicans’ Jose Alvarado, who has recorded back-to-back games with 35+ DraftKings points. He has posted a 26.3% usage rate in his last two games and is coming off his first double-double of the season with 11 points and 11 assists against the Grizzlies. Projected to play around 25 minutes at his cheap $4,600 price tag, Alvarado is a fantastic value option on this small slate.
The Pelicans continue to play without Dejounte Murray, which provides a significant boost to Alvarado’s usage rate and production. However, Alvarado is also questionable to play tonight with hip soreness, so keep an eye on his status throughout the day. Alvarado has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, so if he is able to suit up, he is a strong value in all formats. He is arguably the best available tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Brooklyn Nets – $8,500 DraftKings
The Cavaliers are rolling once again with a 14-game winning streak. They are an absurd 18-point home favorite against the Nets, implied for 123.75 points. The Cavaliers have basically locked up the top seed in the Eastern Conference, so they will likely be coasting down the home stretch. Their star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer but has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last eight games with a ceiling game of 55.75 DraftKings points against the Celtics in late February.
Mitchell leads all shooting guards by a comfortable margin in projected ceiling and is drawing around 20% projected ownership. Due to his inconsistent recent play, Mitchell’s salary remains in check at $8,500. He is the best way to get exposure to the Cavaliers offense and is very capable of a ceiling performance.
Top Value: Dennis Schroder vs. Washington Wizards – $4,400 DraftKings
Leading this four-game slate with the highest team total is the Pistons, who are 14.5-point home favorites against the Wizards, implied for 125.25 points. The Pistons are currently tied for the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference and are climbing quickly. Journeyman Dennis Schroder was acquired at the trade deadline and has been playing very well recently with more opportunity. In his last three games, Schroder is averaging 14.7 points, five assists, and 28.8 DraftKings points per game with a 20.7% usage rate.
Schroder is a cheap way to get exposure to the Pistons offense without paying up for someone like Cunningham. Priced at $4,400 with dual guard eligibility, Schroder is easy to fit into all lineup builds. The Wizards rank fourth in pace and 28th in defensive rating, making this a great matchup for opposing guards.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at New Orleans Pelicans – $8,100 DraftKings
Currently leading the slate in projected ownership is Clippers’ forward Kawhi Leonard. The matchup is incredible for Leonard, who has been pretty consistent recently. He has recorded over 40 DraftKings points in five of his last eight games. His playing time is where we are used to seeing him, with two of his last four games recording 40 minutes. Leonard also captured a 33-point, 10-rebound double-double against the Lakers a little over a week ago. At his $8,100 salary, it is hard not to get exposure to Leonard.
Not only are the Pelicans the worst defensive team in the league, but they are also tied for the second-worst rebounding percentage at 48.1%. This would be an incredible opportunity for Leonard to record another point and rebound double-double. He is the best mid-range option at his 35% ownership.
Top Value: Malik Beasley vs. Washington Wizards – $5,400 DraftKings
Another veteran Pistons player that is worth getting exposure to on this four-game slate is sharpshooter Malik Beasley. In his first season with the Pistons, Beasley is averaging an impressive 16.5 points per game while shooting 41.7% from behind the arc. Over 70% of his field goal attempts have come from long distance this season, which bodes well for this matchup. The Wizards have allowed opponents to make 14.3 3-pointers per game, which is the fourth-highest total in the league. Bombs away for Beasley.
In his only game against the Wizards this season, Beasley erupted for 26 points, shooting 10-for-16 from the field and 6-for-11 from downtown. Most of his fantasy production comes from scoring the ball, but this is a great matchup to do so. Beasley is drawing around 25% projected ownership at his $5,400 salary.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Indiana Pacers – $11,400 DraftKings
This four-game slate comes down to whether or not to play Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has the highest projected ceiling on the slate and is by far the most expensive option to target. Giannis continues to rank second in the league in scoring behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 30.9 points and 12 rebounds per game. He has recorded a double-double in five of his last eight games with one triple-double in that time.
The matchup against the Pacers frontcourt is what sets up Giannis for success tonight. The Pacers rank 29th in rebounding percentage and 28th in points allowed in the paint with 51.9 per game. In his two games against the Pacers this season, Giannis is averaging 33.5 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists per game, shooting 61% from the field. This feels like a phenomenal spot to get heavy exposure to Giannis.
Top Value: Karlo Matkovic vs LA Clippers – $3,700 DraftKings
Rookie Karlo Matkovic has seemingly gotten better each and every game that he has played. The Pelicans big man recorded his first double-double of his career last game with 13 points and 11 rebounds against the Grizzlies. He shot 5-for-7 from the field, including 2-for-4 from behind the arc. That was his third game in a row recording at least 23 DraftKings points, which is more than enough at his $3,700 price tag.
The LA Clippers are a difficult interior defense, but at this salary it is difficult not to get exposure to Matkovic. Having the ability to stretch the floor with his perimeter shooting has to be a benefit in this matchup against Ivica Zubac. Matkovic is projected to draw a little under 20% projected ownership and makes for an elite value play in a stars and scrubs lineup build. He is simply too cheap for his projection.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Ivica Zubac at New Orleans Pelicans – $8,000 DraftKings
Playing against Karlo Matkovic is Clippers center Ivica Zubac. This has been the best season of Zubac’s eight-year career. He is averaging a career-best 16 points and 12.5 rebounds per game this season, while shooting 61.7% from the field. The Pelicans have been one of the best matchups for opposing big men, and Zubac will take full advantage of this spot yet again. In his only game against the Pelicans this season, Zubac recorded a huge double-double with 20 points and 16 rebounds and shot 9-for-13 from the field.
At his $8,000 salary, Zubac is drawing nearly 35% projected ownership. With a 34-minute projection and a 22% usage rate, Zubac is one of the best mid-range plays on the slate. So much ownership on this four-game slate is flooded to the Clippers options, but do not forget about Zubac, who is in a fantastic spot.
Top Value: Jalen Duren vs. Washington Wizards – $6,600 DraftKings
Another center who should feast in a favorable matchup is the Pistons’ big man Jalen Duren. He has recorded a double-double in 10 of his last 14 games and is averaging 11.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game this season. Duren is shooting a career-best 69.8% from the field, while adding 2.6 assists and two combined blocks and steals per game. In his third year in the league, Duren has become a truly dominant center.
The Wizards have also struggled against active opposing big men. They rank 27th in points allowed per game in the paint and rebounding percentage. Duren only played 18 minutes in their last meeting but was still able to manage a double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds. Duren will be an extremely popular mid-range play at $6,600 and is yet another great way to get exposure to this Pistons team total.
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